UFC 111 TONIGHT ON PPV & SPIKE TV
Posted March 27th, 2010 byCategories: UFC NEWS
Georges St. Pierre Photo: Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
It’s a fine time of year, as spring promises an end to weekly blizzards and the UFC is in the midst of a full-on binge that means almost endless MMA for all. The latest offering is UFC 111 “St. Pierre vs. Hardy,” which airs Saturday on pay-per-view from the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.After a lifetime spent as the second-class citizens of MMA, the Northeast is finally getting a major league UFC show and it’s headlined by pound-for-pound poster boyGeorges St. Pierre defending his welterweight strap against British trashtalker/face-smasher Dan Hardy.Rounding out the main card is an interim heavyweight title bout starring Frank Mir’s bionic body and Shane Carwin’s sun-blocking body as well as a trio of quality bouts set to bring the violence.So get your reading glasses, brew up a fresh pot of coffee and grab your illest cardigan for another round of manly prognostication and analysis.Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan HardyThe Breakdown: After snuffing out the title aspirations of everyone from Thiago Alvesto Jon Fitch, incumbent monarch Georges St. Pierre is starting to make the wildly competitive welterweight landscape look more like a post-apocalyptic dystopia. Perhaps then no one is as qualified to take him on as Dan Hardy, a pinpoint kill-shot artist who looks like he just stepped off the set of “Mad Max.”Escaping the fate of past challengers is a relatively straightforward proposition for Hardy: He must find a way to stuff the light speed takedowns of St. Pierre. While Hardy certainly exceeded expectations by shutting down Mike Swick’s wrestling in their bout at UFC 105, St. Pierre exists in a different dimension wrestling-wise than the rest of the division.Considering the guard game has never been a pillar of Hardy’s style, he’s going to have to rely on maximizing whatever time he gets on the feet. Expecting the Canadian quicksilver to simply oblige his desire for a kickboxing match is dicey at best, and Hardy just doesn’t have the caliber of takedown defense to thwart a mat battle.On the mat St. Pierre has shown solid, accurate ground-and-pound as well as vastly underrated grappling acumen. Meanwhile Hardy struggled with the takedowns and grappling of Marcus Davis, a converted boxer, at UFC 99. Struggling with Davis, a solid gatekeeper, is about as good an omen of success for Hardy as a murder of crows falling dead from the sky every time he starts training.Even assuming success on the feet for Hardy severely underestimates St. Pierre’s ability, as he has more than held his own standing with the likes of leg kick connoisseurThiago Alves and the oil slick boxing of B.J. Penn. Much like St. Pierre’s past challengers, Hardy should feel proud that he earned a title shot and be ready to understand why “Rush” is one of the greatest fighters this generation has ever seen.The Bottom Line: Hardy is going to be an entertaining presence in the welterweight division for a long time. A potential bout with his equally truculent rival Josh Koscheckdown the road would make for one of the most epic displays of pre-fight vitriol in modern times. With that said, St. Pierre is like refined King Cobra venom to one-dimensional strikers like Hardy.It would be far from unbelievable if Hardy starched St. Pierre, though. Opponents suicidal enough to throw down with Hardy are putting their short-term health at risk. However, St. Pierre is becoming a more and more cerebral athlete, which is a terrifying trend for both Hardy and anyone else banking on goading St. Pierre into a low-rent brawl. A dominating performance for St. Pierre reaches its inevitable conclusion with an overdue tapout from Hardy in the third round.
Shane Carwin Photo: Isaac Hinds/Sherdog.com
Frank Mir vs. Shane CarwinThe Breakdown: Thanks to Brock Lesnar’s swiss cheese intestinal tract, top heavyweight contenders Shane Carwin and Frank Mir will contest for the interim heavyweight title with the winner going on to challenge Lesnar for supremacy in the resurgent heavyweight division. For two fighters on the cusp of supremacy, the questions are overwhelming. Mir’s track record of injuries and inconsistency haunt him to this day while Carwin has never fought past the three-minute mark of a professional bout.On paper it’s an impressive statistic, but it ignores the fact that Carwin has precious little live cage time and came awfully close to getting steamrolled by Gabriel Gonzagaat UFC 96. Green fighters heading into title bouts don’t have the greatest history. However, Carwin’s combination of bulldozing wrestling and awe-inspiring punching power both on the feet and mat make him a major style problem for Mir.Throughout his career Mir has struggled against heavy hitters, particularly ones capable of smothering his submissions with skull-scrambling ground-and-pound. Carwin hits like an express train. If Mir gets spooked by his power, he’ll start making the same kinds of mistakes that tripped him up in all of his professional losses.The trade-off here is that Carwin’s submission defense is completely unproven, and his boxing consists almost entirely of throwing really hard and hoping for the best. Mir has made significant strides in his striking over the years. While stout ground-and-pound remains his Achilles heel, he can still tap Carwin with the quickness if the ginormous Colorado native can’t handle a hyperactive guard.The Bottom Line: This is one of the most evenly matched heavyweight bouts in some time on paper, but odds are it won’t last terribly long. Carwin’s unproven submission defense and Mir’s obvious distaste for punishment are combustible flaws that will cost one of them dearly come fight time. Bank on Mir’s superior technique on the feet to give Carwin fits before an ill-advised takedown lands Carwin in a fight-ending submission.
Jim Miller Photo: Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
Jim Miller vs. Mark BocekThe Breakdown: Perhaps the most underappreciated lightweight around, Jim Miller, gets a chance to shine on the main card, but he’ll have to do it against Canadian grappling guru Mark Bocek. While both fighters have amassed solid Octagon records, their biggest opportunities in the UFC have uniformly ended in defeat.The trend seems set to end for Miller. His whole game is kryptonite to Bocek, who wants nothing more than to work his vaunted Brazilian jiu-jitsu from top control. That’s unlikely against Miller, who is not only the superior wrestler but also a surprisingly talented striker as he showed in his dissection of Duane Ludwig at UFC 108.Bocek struggles mightily when he can’t impose his one-dimensional style on opponents. His iffy conditioning is only exacerbated when he has to struggle for takedowns. Miller is accustomed to facing quality grapplers and has shown a tremendous aptitude for not only avoiding submissions but advancing position and forcing opponents on the defensive. Playing defense is not something Bocek wants to do if he has any intention of escaping the prospect of a pink slip.The Bottom Line: This just isn’t the kind of matchup Bocek can win, and it’ll show early as Miller scores takedown after takedown while handily winning the striking exchanges. Opportunities will be few and far between for Bocek. Miller will build up an insurmountable lead on the scorecards and maintain control every step of the way en route to a unanimous decision nod.
Kurt Pellegrino (Top) Photo: Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Fabricio CamoesThe Breakdown: After botching his UFC debut against Caol Uno at UFC 106 thanks to a point deduction and a late gas out, the road is starting to look like a Cormac McCarthy novel for Fabricio Camoes. He now has to take on veteran contender Kurt Pellegrino. A winner of three straight Octagon bouts, Pellegrino is inching his way back to title contention, but a loss to Camoes would land him right back in his old position of resident gatekeeper.That means sticking to the usual strategy of ground-and-pound mixed in with jiu-jitsu savvy, but Camoes showed stout takedown defense in his bout with Uno. Further complicating matters is Camoes’ surprisingly accurate albeit sloppy striking, which could give Pellegrino problems if his takedowns fail him.The problem here for Camoes is that he’s not going to finish Pellegrino with striking alone, and tapping him out seems just as unlikely. The longer this bout wears on, the more it favors Pellegrino’s experience and conditioning. Considering Camoes has yet to show a particularly astute guard at this level, he’ll be in for more bad luck if he doesn’t show up with a bigger gas tank.The Bottom Line: This just isn’t the right fight for a developing fighter like Camoes. Pellegrino isn’t going to stand and trade with him or give him any openings to work with on the mat. The pressure of constantly defending takedowns is going to wear on Camoes as well, and three rounds of frustration will end with him losing a unanimous decision.
Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
Jon Fitch vs. Ben SaundersThe Breakdown: “Brain irregularity” is probably the most terrifying combination of two words in the English language, so it was with good reason that Thiago Alves was a late scratch for his rematch with Fitch. Stepping up to take his place is fellow American Top Team disciple Ben Saunders, who was supposed to fight Jake Ellenberger before he filled the void left by his teammate’s health issues.Why Saunders would take this fight remains anyone’s guess. He’s still a developing fighter, and a mega-wrestler like Fitch looks like a hemlock for his style. A rangy striker with face-shredding clinch skills, Saunders still has not developed proper takedown defense, and his guard lacks the technical polish to maximize the natural advantages his long limbs give him. Saunders is the superior striker, but Fitch takes a no-nonsense approach into the cage and will not hand Saunders any opportunities on the feet.There are plenty of good fights in the welterweight division for young fighters. Fitch, however, is not one of them, as his style is built around completely neutralizing his opponent. Considering Saunders’ reliance on working his kicks and knees, he’s going to have to maximize every second he gets on the feet because, odds are, those seconds will be few and far between.