The Future of Fighting Blog

Sunday, January 10, 2010
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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Everyone hates Mondays — the first day of the work week and the last day of the week anyone wants to be bothered. Thankfully, the fine folks at Zuffa LLC have scheduled a suitable chaser with UFC Fight Night 20 this Monday at the Patriot Center in Fairfax, Va. The world-ranked Gray Maynard serves as the obvious draw, as he puts his undefeated record and lightweight title aspirations on the line against Nate Diaz.

The latest chapter in the Mexico-Oregon war, the possibility of watching the new “Just Bleed Guy” bleed and the return of the world’s toughest surgical technologist rounds out our daily intake of vitamin violence. All in all, we have plenty of reasons to save our postal episode for next Monday.

Gray Maynard vs. Nate Diaz

The Breakdown: Thanks to B.J. Penn’s ongoing curb-stomping of the lightweight division, Maynard could become the next challenger to the Hawaiian’s crown if he can keep his airways and limbs intact against Diaz. For the younger Diaz brother, this fight represents a chance at redemption after his 2009 campaign was hamstrung by losses to Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida.

In both of those fights, Diaz’s stellar submission skills were negated by his non-existent wrestling. Perhaps just as troubling, his striking lacks accuracy and generally looks like slightly accelerated tai chi. Contrast that with Maynard, a suffocating wrestler who will hold a significant advantage in both hand speed and punching power. As usual, Diaz has to hope his spider web of a jiu-jitsu game wins out, but that strategy means he will have to deal with Maynard giving him the little brother treatment every step of the way.

With less than 10 fights under his belt, Maynard’s surprising discipline really tips this match in his favor. It may not win him many fans, but he avoids mistakes on the mat by staying conservative with his ground-and-pound and maintaining control of his own posture, neither of which will give Diaz the opportunity to create the scrambles in which he has proven so effective. As long as Maynard sticks to his modus operandi, it will take nothing short of a mid-fight seizure for Diaz to find the openings “The Bully” keeps bolted shut.

The X-Factor: The physical and tactical advantages all seem to be lined up in Maynard’s favor, but the fact remains that Diaz tapped out an inexperienced incarnation of Maynard on Season 5 of “The Ultimate Fighter.” He has a psychological advantage, and while Maynard will undoubtedly be focused on revenge, a part of him knows even a microscopic error could end in disaster. Since that off-the-books loss, Maynard has not faced a truly great guard player; that lack of experience only makes this fight more compelling. Shutting down Roger Huerta’s guard is a far cry from trying the ultimate nullifier routine on Diaz.

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The Bottom Line: Submitting Maynard may be Diaz’s only hope, but Guida already laid out the wrestler’s game plan for defeating the Stockton, Calif., native, and one can rest assured the cerebral Xtreme Couture Mixed Martial Arts camp has made that fight regular viewing. Odds are onlookers will be feeling a sense of déjà vu throughout the fight, as Maynard controls position and pace en route to a predictably bland unanimous decision win.

D. Mandel/Sherdog.com

Efrain Escudero vs. Evan Dunham

The Breakdown: The long simmering rivalry between Oregon and Mexico comes to a head when Dunham and Escudero match wits and fists in a fight that could determine the next lightweight golden boy. While the rivalry between Oregon and Mexico may be overstated, a win for either fighter spells a prominent spot in a division starving for contenders.

Although both men first developed notoriety for their grappling, Escudero’s windmill power punches and Dunham’s surprisingly astute counterpunching have distinguished them from the sea of quality grapplers already on the scene. Dunham’s down-the-pipe punching style will be frustrating for “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 8 winner, but his habit of dropping his hands only makes the prospect of Escudero serving him the chin check special all the more likely. The thought of watching Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em robots redux makes this fight more than just a jiu-jitsu special, but odds are someone will take this fight to the mat when the exchanges start turning into a full-scale recreation of the Battle of Helm’s Deep. Although Dunham’s physical strength and excellent balance greatly improve his unrefined wrestling, his upright stance will make him a prime target for Escudero’s takedowns.

Considering both fighters work best from top control, the man forced to work off his back will be at a distinct disadvantage. Unless Dunham can control distance with his punches and get his sprawl deep enough on Escudero’s shots, he will find his combinations interrupted by an unwelcome trip to the canvas.

The X-Factor: Easy as it was to be impressed by Escudero’s vulgar display of power on Cole Miller’s chin at UFC 103, shooting from the hip against a counterpuncher will only result in a face full of fist. Time and time again, Marcus Aurelio tried to land overhand bombs on Dunham at UFC 102, and he ended up on the wrong end of his left hand counter. More importantly, Dunham’s ability to consistently land punches forced Aurelio to try for takedowns from outside the pocket, which gave the unbeaten Oregonian the precious split second he needed to sprawl. If Escudero cannot find a way to collapse the pocket, this fight will turn into a Sisyphean task in short order.

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The Bottom Line: One certainty exists in this fight; it will be more fun to watch than an episode of “Steven Seagal: Lawman” — just about the highest praise one can give to any form of entertainment. Early on, the fight will favor Dunham as he gets the better of the exchanges, but once Escudero starts measuring his punches and segueing into takedowns, he will take control and never relinquish it. This “Fight of the Night” winner ends with Escudero taking a decision.

D. Mandel/Sherdog.com

Tom Lawlor vs. Aaron Simpson

The Breakdown: Perhaps best known for his imitation of the infamous “Just Bleed Guy” and his decision to enter the cage to “Who Let the Dogs Out?” it has become obvious that Lawlor went to the school of ironic self-promotion. All the chunky chain necklaces and preposterous haircuts in the world, however, will not help him against the berserker barrage of Simpson, best known for turning human beings into road kill in the cage.

Lawlor needs to fight fire with fire by using his wrestling to keep Simpson from working the frantic pace he utilizes to overwhelm opponents. Therein rests the rub, as Simpson’s own wrestling pedigree and comic bookish combination of speed and strength have made it virtually impossible for anyone to slow him down.

Though Lawlor has proven a solid wrestler in his own right, he remains far from world-class and lacks the physical talent necessary to keep Simpson under control. With takedowns virtually out of the question, he will be forced into exchanges where survival will be just as unlikely as success.

The X-Factor: For a guy who seems to live in a parallel dimension, Lawlor has turned into a truly well-rounded fighter, and his talent for submissions has become something to keep an eye on. C.B. Dollaway learned that lesson at UFC 100 when a sloppy shot landed him in a fight-ending guillotine choke. Simpson’s own relentless style makes him prone to the sort of over-aggressiveness that has short-circuited many a prospect.

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The Bottom Line: Until Simpson faces the next tier of UFC competition, he will keep going Honey Badger on anyone unfortunate enough to cross his path. Lawlor will be no exception, as Simpson flat-out stomps him midway through the first round with a ground-and-pound flurry that answers once and for all who let the dogs out.

D. Mandel/Sherdog.com

Amir Sadollah vs. Brad Blackburn

The Breakdown: The other main card bout featuring a winner from “The Ultimate Fighter” has an altogether different flavor, with Sadollah still trying to find his footing in the Octagon. Meanwhile, Blackburn has put together a 3-0 run that has him knocking on the door of contention. Beating Blackburn would go a long way towards erasing the memory of Sadollah’s knockout loss to Johny Hendricks at UFC 101, but the style clash again does not fall in his favor.

Blackburn has been criminally underappreciated, as his combination of disciplined boxing, accurate leg kicks and veteran savvy give him all the tools to frustrate Sadollah, a man at his best when he can control opponents in close quarters. Movement and a steady jab with power behind it are public enemies number one and two for Sadollah, and Blackburn has both in excess.

While Sadollah has shown enough talent on the mat to have a suitable Plan B, he lacks the takedowns to get Blackburn horizontal, and his jiu-jitsu remains in its nascent stages. Even if Sadollah can lock down the Thai clinch on the International Fight League veteran, Phil Baroni had some early success sneaking in punches and swimming free, something Blackburn will be more than capable of replicating. Either way, if Sadollah tries to fight from up close, he still has to worry about whether his chin can hold up as long as Blackburn’s.

The X-Factor: Work rate and conditioning are Sadollah’s best assets, as he proved in his bout with Baroni. If his chin can handle Blackburn’s power, they will be his saving graces. Relying on one’s chin against a talented puncher has always been a bad bet, but as long as Sadollah hangs in there and wears down Blackburn enough to take the edge off his game, he has a real shot at scoring what should be seen as an upset.

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The Bottom Line: This should be another fun fight. Blackburn will undoubtedly look to drop some “Mortal Kombat”-style combinations, while Sadollah answers with his arsenal of muay Thai techniques. The difference maker will be Blackburn’s power, a factor Sadollah cannot match or overcome with sheer volume. A certifiably insane fight ends with Sadollah looking like a crash test dummy after Blackburn puts out his lights with a right hand in the third round.

D. Mandel/Sherdog.com

Chris Leben vs. Jay Silva

Leben may have the big name, but Silva has the hype. He showed a solid skill set in his loss to C.B. Dollaway and seems to only need experience in order to develop into something special. Look for Leben to be the man on whom Silva builds his reputation, as Leben’s increasingly predictable brawling techniques will be a poor match for Silva’s flashy yet undeniably effective striking arsenal. More importantly, Leben’s notoriously tiny gas tank has betrayed him several times before, and it will happen again if he cannot starch Silva early. Watch for a competitive fight to turn in Silva’s favor once Leben starts gasping for whatever oxygen his lungs can suck in.

Rick Story vs. Jesse Lennox

Sometimes, a fight just makes perfect sense. Consider this one a fine example. Story and Lennox work torrid paces and will maintain the tempo anywhere the fight goes. Lennox’s submission defense has looked vulnerable before, and Story jumps on submission openings like a zombie to brains. Lennox may be far from a free takedown, but Story has proven the smoother striker and does an excellent job of setting up his takedowns with strikes. A buck fight turns in Story’s favor midway through the second round, as he rocks Lennox on the feet and seamlessly transitions into a guillotine choke for the finish.

Thiago Tavares vs. Nik Lentz

After a successful UFC debut, Lentz heads into the far end of the ocean against Tavares, a man who was basically tailor-made to beat him. Ideally, Lentz would use his wrestling to mix it up between striking and ground-and-pound, but Tavares is a talented wrestler and striker, along with being one of the division’s better submission artists. This will serve as a stern reminder for Lentz on what it takes to make the cut in the Octagon, as Tavares will simply outclass him in every area of the game. An increasingly mismatched fight comes to a long overdue end with Tavares cinching an almost merciful rear-naked choke in the second round.

Michael Guymon vs. Rory MacDonald

Already one of Canada’s most heralded prospects, MacDonald makes his long-awaited UFC debut against Guymon, the longtime King of the Cage standard bearer. A true study in versatility, MacDonald has proven surprisingly slick for a relative rookie, and his dominating top game will be poison to Guymon. Struggles follow Guymon whenever smooth grapplers force him to work off his back, and MacDonald fits that archetype to a T. A brilliant introduction to the world at large awaits MacDonald, as he puts the exclamation point on his evening with a beautiful armbar transition from mount late in the first round.

Kyle Bradley vs. Rafael dos Anjos

One of the more lopsided matches of the night pits Bradley against Dos Anjos, who looks a lot like a younger version of the guy from those Dos Equis commercials. Simply put, Bradley does not have much to offer Dos Anjos beyond pure physical ability, which will not help him much once the disparity in technical acumen comes into play. Dos Anjos’ whole style seems to cancel out anything his opponents do, as his versatility and composure make for a frustrating combination. It may not be the most interesting fight in the world, but Dos Anjos will stay thirsty via unanimous decision.

Gerald Harris vs. John Salter

His return long overdue, Harris will get a chance to make it memorable one at Salter’s expense. Let us not tell any lies; Salter, a sacrificial lamb, is severely overmatched. Watch any of Harris’ fights, and you can see a dynamic fighter who has finally started to take his talent and turn it into skill. That evolution will be on display as Harris pounds out Salter late in the first round following a Mount Everest slam.

Nick Catone vs. Jesse Forbes

In the WrestleMania fight on the card, Catone and Forbes will live or die on their wrestling in this one. The difference? Forbes has been touring the local circuit and fighting no-names, while Catone has been busy cutting his teeth in the Octagon. Jumping back into the UFC with no real preparation might be the worst idea since Zubas pants, and Catone will be chomping at the bit to exploit that weakness. Forbes will not have an answer for Catone’s ground-and-pound and will end up losing a decision for his troubles.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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Mixed martial arts on free television serves as the universal dinner bell for anyone who enjoys well-regulated violence, and this Saturday on Spike TV, UFC 105 “Couture vs. Vera” hits the Manchester Evening News Arena in Manchester, England. With a main event starring UFC legend Randy Couture and the uber-talented Brandon Vera, fans have the only reason they need to park themselves in front of the biggest television they can find when the bell rings.

Throw in a welterweight title eliminator, the formal debuts of “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 9 winners and the return of England’s favorite fighting son, Michael Bisping, and the top-tier fireworks are booked.

Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera

The Breakdown: Welcome to time warp mode, as Couture looks to replicate the success of his 2003 cut down to light heavyweight, which included two title reigns. Couture’s quarry, Vera, simply wants to reclaim his blue-chip status by capping off his 2009 campaign with what would be a career-changing win.

The fight essentially comes down to Vera’s ability to use his reach and wrestling to force Couture out of his usual ground-and-pound mode. Simply put, Couture cannot keep up with Vera on the feet, and his usual dirty boxing strategy seems fraught with danger, considering Vera’s unique combination of wrestling and muay Thai.

Couture has the advantage in experience and fight IQ, both of which have given Vera problems in the past, since he seems to rely more on talent than strategy to win. Everyone knows Couture will step into the cage with a sound strategy; whether his body will be as sharp as his mind remains a question that should be on everyone’s mind.

Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Youth is on Vera’s (pictured) side.

The X-Factor: Courage under fire has proven a rare intangible inside the cage, and if past history is any indicator, Vera is not the guy you want in a foxhole with you. Time and time again, Vera’s well-hyped talent has been overshadowed by his inability to work through the inevitable difficulties that come with fighting angry men for a living.

Barring some absurdly easy knockout, Vera will be put to the test, and the professor will be a man who has broken many a will before. For better or worse, the MMA world will find out exactly what Vera has underneath all that bravado.

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The Bottom Line: A litany of practical reasons why Vera will win this fight exist, and none are more compelling than Couture being 46 years old. With that said, Couture’s entire career has been built on defying the odds, and Vera is notorious for his high-stakes failures. Take old man Couture in a three-round decision that will lead to a fresh round of hyperbole from Joe Rogan.

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Stephen Albanese/Sherdog.com

Hardy (above) is prime for disappointment.

Mike Swick vs. Dan Hardy

The Breakdown: In a title eliminator with a shot at welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre as the somewhat-masochistic prize, Swick and Hardy have distinguished themselves in a division rapidly running out of contenders. The style clash between them depends largely on how Swick approaches Hardy, who has proven lethal as a striker but lacks the same mystique on the mat.

While most of Swick’s success has come as a striker, he has shown the intelligence to throw changeups at the opposition. Remember when he adopted a wrestling-centric approach against Marcus Davis at UFC 85? That versatility and Swick’s willingness to use it will play heavily into just how much of Hardy’s vaunted striking the sure-to-be rabid locals will get to see.

The X-Factor: There will not be much Hardy can do if Swick starts shooting for his legs, but the mohawked Brit has shown himself to be a gifted counterpuncher, and Swick has the habit of getting wide with his fists. Both bode well for Hardy, who needs to use his jab and force Swick to set up his takedowns with punches.

Those punches will give Hardy the time he needs to measure his counters and perhaps force Swick into exchanges for which he is not prepared. Hardy has the equal measures of patience and aggression necessary to make the strategy work; it boils down to staying focused in between takedowns.

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The Bottom Line: It will not be pretty, but Swick will take an uneventful decision fueled by savvy strategy and tactical ground-and-pound. Prepare to keep your sound system on low because the chorus of boos will be loud enough to shatter glass.

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Terry Goodlad/Sherdog.com

Bisping (pictured) may lack confidence.

Michael Bisping vs. Denis Kang

The Breakdown: Bisping and Kang are talented middleweights who saw anticipated title runs go up in smoke. Now, they face each other for a shot to reboot their stalled careers. If one looks at this fight from a talent perspective, Kang has Bisping’s number, considering his edge on the feet and on the mat.

While Bisping remains a solid all-around fighter, he lacks anything overwhelming in his offensive repertoire and mostly relies on his high work-rate to wear out opponents. Kang, however, may not give him the chance to do anything except get run over.

The X-Factor: The worries of Kang fans are twofold since he often comes into fights looking disinterested, and even when he gives it his all, his propensity for bone-headed mistakes has cost him before. The longer Bisping keeps this fight going, the better his chances get.

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The Bottom Line: Flip a coin. Every Kang fight has become a game of probability, with one side of the coin representing his million-dollar talent and the other representing lukewarm results. This time around, Kang takes a decision, mainly because Bisping no longer inspires confidence.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Brown (above) has the standing edge.

James Wilks vs. Matt Brown

The Breakdown: As one of two “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 9 winners making his formal UFC debut, Wilks has no easy road waiting for him. Brown’s savage slugging represents his first obstacle. This will turn into a clash of weaknesses, as Brown’s ground game remains suspect and Wilks will likely get his face rearranged if he tries to trade blows.

Brown’s ability, or potential lack thereof, to stop Wilks’ takedown attempts matters most. Wilks excels at closing the pocket, but his wrestling does not appear all that sharp and Brown’s brute physicality could be enough to dissuade him from stepping inside. If that turns out to be the case, Wilks might as well flop to the mat and wait for the end to come.

The X-Factor: If Wilks can secure a takedown, Brown goes from dominant to prone, as his mediocre mat game has kept him cast in a gatekeeper role. Keep an eye on how Brown controls range early; if he fails at it, he will be tapping soon afterwards.

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The Bottom Line: In another pick ’em fight, gamble on Wilks cinching a submission after some early difficulties from Brown’s fists. Arena security will undoubtedly be hoping for a Wilks victory since it will make their night’s work that much easier. The Brits do not take well to losing.

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Jim Page/Sherdog.com

Take Pearson (above) in a close fight.

Ross Pearson vs. Aaron Riley

The Breakdown: Pearson, the other debuting “The Ultimate Fighter 9” winner, gets no easy road, either, as he has been slotted against a consummate professional. Both men are versatile fighters, but Pearson has youth on his side. Riley is a veteran of 40 fights, many of which came with a heavy toll.

That physical debt continues to collect on Riley’s game. He has gradually lost a step or two in the cage, which is often more than enough to take a fighter right out of it. Unless Riley finds Randy Couture’s fountain of youth, he will have to face off with a younger, better version of himself.

The X-Factor: If nothing else, Riley has proven himself a tough competitor who never backs down from a fight. Pearson beat Andre Winner at “The Ultimate Fighter 9” Finale by outlasting him; that does not appear to be as wise a strategy against someone as savvy as Riley.

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The Bottom Line: Take Pearson in a close fight in which Riley cannot find the extra gear needed to win. With that, mass chaos will be averted, as just enough of the local fighters notch wins to keep the peace.

Wednesday, November 04, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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Strikeforce/M-1 Global “Fedor vs. Rogers” will stare down the UFC and draw its line in the sand this Saturday, as heavyweight kingpin Fedor Emelianenko anchors the promotion’s CBS debut from the Sears Centre Arena in Hoffman Estates, Ill. In making such a stand, it helps to have the most indestructible Russian since Rasputin by your side, along with an opponent who looks like a mutated version of Mr. T.

Besides the must-see intrigue that comes with Emelianenko stepping into a cage against Brett Rogers, the night will see Strikeforce crown a middleweight champion when jiu-jitsu demigod Jake Shields takes on Jason “Mayhem” Miller. Though light heavyweight champion Gegard Mousasi will not put his strap on the line in his bout with Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou, anytime guys nicknamed “The Dreamcatcher” and “The African Assassin” fight, we owe it to ourselves to watch.

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers

The Breakdown: More than six years into his reign as the T-1000 of the heavyweight class, Emelianenko faces a familiar challenge in Rogers — a ginormous brawler blessed with the punching power needed to starch a cyborg emperor. However, putting fist to face appears to be the only threat Rogers poses to Emelianenko, who has a whole toolbox of skills thanks to his legendary international Sambo career, as well as the kind of ground-and-pound that can give the heartiest onlooker a migraine.

If anything works in Rogers’ favor, it could be that Emelianenko seems to go along with whatever his opponent wants to do out of an almost reckless confidence that he can succeed in any situation. It has yet to cost him a fight, but it has gotten him in trouble before, and Rogers only needs one punch and one mistake to precede it to leave lots of bookies in tears.

Considering both fighters rely on wide looping punches, the openings will be there for both men to play shatter the skull. Of course, this assumes Emelianenko does not drag Rogers to the mat and dismantle him like a stack of Legos. Although no one has seen Rogers’ ground game, it seems safe to assume that he will not do anything except tap out if Emelianenko pulls him into the deep end of the pool.

The X-Factor: Emelianenko has weaknesses, but his opponents always end up laid out before they get a chance to do anything except look overmatched. Rogers does have the ability to exploit Emelianenko’s mediocre chin, but that means putting himself right in the Russian’s wheelhouse.

Rogers certainly will not be afraid to collapse the pocket, but no heavyweight can walk through Emelianenko’s punches. Taking a few of those shots will be the price of admission for Rogers.

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The Bottom Line: Everyone from Andrei Arlovski to Semmy Schilt had a striker’s chance against Emelianenko, and they all discovered why they were better off leaving the quiet, dead-eyed Russian alone. That lesson that will be written across Rogers’ face, as well, as Emelianenko takes advantage of his aggression and greets him with an overhand right midway through the opening stanza.

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James Meinhardt/Sherdog.com

“Mayhem” is in for a long night.

Strikeforce Middleweight Championship
Jake Shields vs. Jason “Mayhem” Miller

The Breakdown: Thanks to Cung Le’s Hollywood B-movie dreams, Shields and Miller now get the chance to settle up for the vacant middleweight title. The match itself essentially comes down to a case of two grapplers, with one, Shields, being markedly better than the other. Miller, however, has proven slick and even managed to keep his limbs and airways intact after 15 minutes on the mat with Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza.

By the same token, Miller was thoroughly dominated in that bout, and Shields presents the same problems as “Jacare.” A superior wrestler who remains vastly underappreciated as an elite jiu-jitsu player, Shields has suddenly developed a mean streak after spending most of his career as an anthropomorphized blanket. That combination of stultifying top control and newfound killer instinct will make life painfully difficult for Miller, whose appeal to the state commission for quality of entrance to be included in the judging criteria was denied.

The X-Factor: If you want to point to a weakness in Shields’ game, historically, it has been his conditioning. To be fair, Shields has not been the type of fighter who starts gasping for air halfway through the introductions, but he does fade late in fights if his opponent can force him to work from the opening bell.

Miller has proven himself as active as any fighter in MMA, and he has become borderline impossible to stop thanks to his own masochistic love of punishment. Fighting someone who can smile through a dislocated elbow seems like an unsettling experience, and if Shields cannot keep up with Miller, he will discover he is not the only grappler out there who likes twisting limbs and smashing faces.

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The Bottom Line: This looks like a bad matchup for Miller. Worse yet, his army of Mayhem Monkeys will not be allowed to pull a Bobby Heenan and save him when the going gets rough. Nasty will be the adjective that best describes this fight, as Shields muscles down Miller early and batters him every step of the way. Sooner or later, the referee’s compassion switch will flip, and Miller’s grill will live to bling again.

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Stephen Martinez/Sherdog.com

Sokoudjou better keep his
hands high against Mousasi.

Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

The Breakdown: In a non-title tilt, Mousasi will look to continue his successful segue to the 205-pound class against the Cameroonian Predator. Once thought to be the division’s top blue-chip prospect, Sokoudjou’s obscene physical talent has long been overshadowed by cardio roughly on par with that of a pack-a-day smoker.

Worse yet, Mousasi’s striking has proven far more polished and his submission skill renders Sokoudjou’s judo throws inconsequential. Everyone has been waiting for years for Sokoudjou to jump on the treadmill, but in this fight, he will need strategic savvy that will not come from a few hours on the track every day.

The X-Factor: For the first few minutes of any fight, Sokoudjou can best be described as hell on wheels. While Mousasi excels in fast-paced fights, Sokoudjou only needs to find a home for a straight right to relive his upset streak in Pride Fighting Championships. If nothing else, Sokoudjou will get the pace he wants from Mousasi. Whether he gets the result he wants will depend on whether or not this fight turns into another showcase for his flaws.

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The Bottom Line: Any concerns about Mousasi’s transition to light heavyweight were silenced when he demolished Renato “Babalu” Sobral in a minute flat. Meanwhile, Sokoudjou has been floundering in the Dream Super Hulk tournament after getting smacked down by the leading men at light heavyweight. Watch for Sokoudjou to come out with customary guns blazing and promptly run into a knockout courtesy of a Mousasi head kick.

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Daniel Herbertson/Sherdog.com

Silva is outmatched against Werdum.

Antonio Silva vs. Fabricio Werdum

The Breakdown: Werdum remains the more well-regarded of the two, having spent years as a top heavyweight contender with an unfortunate habit of timing his losses poorly. Meanwhile, Silva, a huge guy with some skill, basically receives way more credit than he should for being a huge guy with some skill.

The difference in size will not be particularly pronounced, as Werdum will only give up some weight to Silva, who has to worry about his foe’s all-universe jiu-jitsu. While Silva’s striking may be considered an advantage, Werdum has made strides with his own muay Thai, and he has effectively navigated his way to wins over supposedly superior strikers before. Unless Silva can keep this fight upright and bully around Werdum, set your timer to tapout because it will not take long for the UFC veteran to expose Silva.

The X-Factor: The deciding factor in this fight will likely be Silva’s takedown defense, which has proven surprisingly weak for a guy who should be able to smother anyone looking to outmuscle him. Werdum’s wrestling can hardly be described as an asset, but he only needs a single takedown to completely outclass Silva. How the wrestling clash plays out will be the variable on which this fight hinges.

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The Bottom Line: Title eliminators are supposed to be competitive, but this fight will show just how short Strikeforce remains on quality heavyweights, as Werdum makes Silva look like a rank amateur. A few early fireworks on the feet will end abruptly, as Werdum snags an easy single-leg and promptly cinches a submission on Silva.

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Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Modafferi will edge Coenen.

Marloes Coenen vs. Roxanne Modafferi

After losing Erin Toughill to injury, Strikeforce managed to line up Modafferi — another fighter who has already beaten Coenen. A jack of all trades, Modaferri can force Coenen, who relies heavily on her jiu-jitsu, to step outside of her comfort zone. Expect a close fight, but Modafferi will take another nip/tuck decision win from her Dutch rival.

Jeff Curran vs. Dustin Neace

After flunking out of World Extreme Cagefighting, Curran gets a chance to rebound against Neace — and rebound he will. A journeyman who never quite escaped that casting, Neace finds himself in the unenviable position of being a solid grappler taking on an opponent who has proven himself vastly superior in that regard. An entertaining bit of back-and-forth on the mats ends with Curran tying Neace into a not-so-pretty package.

Mark Miller vs. Deray Davis

After some time on the shelf, Miller makes his return to the game against Davis. In keeping with the generally uncompetitive tone of the undercard, Miller has been lined up for a reasonably easy win. Davis has not been fond of working off his back and Miller will plant him there time and time again. On the ground, the disparity in offensive ability will become even more obvious. A thorough thrashing against Davis will reignite Miller’s career.

Christian Uflacker vs. Jonatas Novaes

The jiu-jitsu special of the night matches the inexperienced but well-hyped Uflacker against fellow Brazilian submission specialist Novaes. Expect Uflacker to ace Novaes on the mats. As the flat-out better grappler of the two, Uflacker will find an all-too-willing partner in Novaes, and he will be all-too willing to make him a quality addition to the old highlight reel.

John Kolosci vs. Shamar Bailey

A castoff from “The Ultimate Fighter,” Kolosci was slotted against Bailey in a bout for a spot in Strikeforce’s surging middleweight division. While many fans love Kolosci’s All-American work ethic, Bailey has proven the more talented of the two and only gives up experience to his counterpart. Watch for Bailey to swarm Kolosci from the opening bell and eventually overwhelm him late with a torrent of ground-and-pound.

Louis Taylor vs. Nate Moore

Take Taylor, an unbeaten Adrenaline MMA veteran with a pair of first-round finishes to his credit, in a meeting between two anonymous prospects. Taylor was a former Eastern Illinois University wrestling standout; Moore wrestled alongside Jon Fitch at Purdue University and now trains with him at the American Kickboxing Academy.

Wednesday, October 07, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com) (Photos by WEC.tv)

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The AT&T Center in San Antonio will play host to the snakebitten WEC 43 “Cerrone vs. Henderson” card on Saturday, and I know I’m not the only one surprised to see this show on the verge of coming together.

It seems as if every other day has brought news of an injury that sets off logistical nightmares as the WEC struggles to keep the card up to the high standards they’ve set as arguably the world’s premier home for talent south of the lightweight division.

The end result shows just how much work went into the production. Despite missing a headlining superstar, the main card features some of the promotion’s premier talent in matches that should keep everyone champing at the bit for more from Zuffa’s little brother. The main event pits top contenders Benson Henderson and Donald Cerrone for the interim lightweight title, and backup bouts star jiu-jitsu demigod Raphael Assuncao, lightweight blue-chipper Dave Jansen and the intense fire that is Damacio Page.

So let’s get in line with the routine and dig in for some top-tier fight talk that will undoubtedly be torn asunder by the actual results come fight night. The upside is that it means more hate, and we all know that without more hate, my plans to build a 56-story luxury hate-scraper will have to be put on hold.

Donald Cerrone vs. Benson Henderson

The Breakdown: With Jamie Varner’s laundry list of injuries joining the intensive care hall of fame, the WEC is matching top contenders Cerrone and Henderson to determine an interim lightweight champion and build a suitable storyline for Varner’s impending return. Beyond the peripheral concerns, the matchup pits two of the WEC’s most offensively versatile fighters who also happen to have all the defensive abilities of a soft-shell turtle. The problem for Henderson is that he can’t match Cerrone’s repertoire or the fluidity with which the lanky Colorado cowboy combines his spectrum of skills.

If Henderson tries to strike with Cerrone, he’ll struggle to establish his range against Cerrone’s reach. Cerrone also has the advantage of a true kickboxing pedigree while Henderson relies on pure power punching. Although Henderson doesn’t have to worry about getting wrestle-stomped by Cerrone, he probably doesn’t want any part of a grappling match with him, considering that Cerrone’s guard is more aggressive than a door-to-door salesman on PCP. One way or another, it looks like Henderson is walking into a fight where his only choice will be how he loses.

The X Factor: Varner wrote the book on how to beat the previously undefeated Cerrone. If Henderson is to have any shot in this fight, he needs to follow it to a T by using movement to get inside Cerrone’s reach and blast away at his chin. Varner proved you can starch Cerrone as long as he can’t get his own shots off, but Henderson will have to retool his game to incorporate more movement and tighter punching to make that happen. There is a world of difference between a slugfest and a strategic striking match, and as obvious as that may sound, many fighters fail to make the distinction. Henderson’s success will depend on his ability to walk that fine line, and he doesn’t have the track record to put anyone at ease.

The Bottom Line: If nothing else, Henderson will make it interesting by coming right at Cerrone with the kitchen sink in tow. Cerrone will respond by taking said kitchen sink and breaking it over Henderson’s head, metaphorically speaking. Unless of course the WEC decides to allow kitchen sinks in the cage for this fight, in which case we may witness the greatest fight ever committed to video. Either way, a wild striking battle eventually turns in the favor of Cerrone, who will finish a dazed Henderson on the mat late in the opening stanza.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

“Cleat” will have his hands full.

Rich Crunkilton vs. Dave Jansen

The Breakdown: Once the lightweight division’s prospect du jour, Crunkilton’s career has been marred by injuries and his limited fight IQ. Now starring as the WEC’s resident gatekeeper, Crunkilton gets to face off with Jansen, who finds himself in the same role his opponent did once upon a time. An undefeated and relatively untested prospect, Jansen’s success depends on his ability to take the top position while Crunkilton’s success depends on not doing something worthy of a Darwin Award. As much as Crunkilton’s experience and strong Greco-Roman wrestling make him the theoretical favorite, Jansen’s non-stop motor and no-nonsense approach makes him perfectly suited to exploit a guy whose past “strategery” has made him the jester of crunk.

The X Factor: For all of Crunkilton’s past in-cage mistakes, he’s still got an impressive record and the wrestling to smother most anyone like a lonely grandmother. If Jansen doesn’t respond well to the challenge of facing a strong wrestler, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time a darling prospect falls to pieces at the first sign of adversity. Forcing Jansen into a difficult fight that doesn’t play to his strengths needs to be Crunkilton’s goal.

The Bottom Line: Like someone who keeps sending his money to e-mail-based Nigerian kings, there comes a time when you can’t keep banking on Crunkilton putting it all together. Jansen is just the kind of fighter who can force Crunkilton to rely on his guard and will not allow him to get away with any mistakes. It won’t be the most scintillating three rounds of the evening, but Jansen will take home a well-earned unanimous nod from the judges.

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Freddie DeFreitas/Sherdog.com

Expect violence from Page.

Damacio Page vs. Will Campuzano

The Breakdown: I’m not gonna lie: Page is pretty awesome, and Campuzano has produced minimal awesome in his short career. One of the ongoing influx of undefeated prospects reaching the WEC’s shores, Campuzano has yet to face anywhere near the level of resistance that Page will bring. He’s also a late-notice replacement for the previously announced Akitoshi Tamura. From what I’ve seen, Campuzano plays your standard-issue ground-and-pound game, which won’t be easy to manage against Page’s fist-first striking and brute physicality.

The X Factor: Plenty of prospects have made an unexpected splash in the WEC thus far, and Campuzano has dominated the middling competition he’s faced. No extra credit for that, but at least he has the wrestling to ground Page. Whether or not he has the wrestling to keep him in place for more than five seconds is what will decide his chances against the perpetually pressuring style of Page, a man with quite possibly the greatest nickname in the history of the universe. Whoever came up with “The Angel of Death” deserves a Nobel prize of some sort.

The Bottom Line: There isn’t a good reason why anyone with just six fights against no-name opponents should be fighting Page. Expect something along the lines of Page’s terrifying knockout of Marcos Galvao, as he shrugs off Campuzano’s takedown attempts and batters him in the clinch with overhands and digging body blows for a violent TKO win.

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Al Quintero/Sherdog.com

Jabouin is no match for Jabouin.

Raphael Assuncao vs. Yves Jabouin

The Breakdown: One of the world’s best featherweights takes on a guy who will soon have the honor of tapping out to one of the world’s best featherweights. Anti-climactic doesn’t even begin to describe the idea of Assuncao fighting Jabouin, who is simply not built to do anything that Assuncao should be worried about. Some may point to Jabouin’s excellent striking, but Assuncao isn’t the type to waste time on the feet. He will get right in Jabouin’s grill and force him to stuff takedown after takedown if he wants to spend more than a few seconds upright.

The X Factor: Credit where credit is due: Jabouin has a nasty striking arsenal. If Assuncao decides it’s time to test his stand-up, he might end up looking like someone in severe need of facial reconstruction. There’s no reason to believe Assuncao will take that route considering his by-the-book jiu-jitsu game, but if Jabouin can get to his chin before he hits the mat, this fight won’t be the soft touch that many are predicting. It all comes down to Jabouin and his ability, or lack thereof, to force Assuncao out of his usual takedown-tapout routine.

The Bottom Line: While the visual of Jabouin crunching Assuncao’s dome with an axe kick is second only to the prospect of Karimula Barkalaev returning from hiding, neither is going to happen in our lifetimes. An early takedown by Assuncao will lead to where it normally leads: his opponent realizing the only way out is the lonely solace of a tapout. Hopefully, the future holds something a bit more challenging for Assuncao, who should be taking on the division’s leading lights instead of fighters straddling the line between the B and C list.

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Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Vazquez gets a shot at vindication.

Anthony Njokuani vs. Muhsin Corbbrey

The Bottom Line: A battle of lightweights who seem forever on the periphery of the division, both Njokuani and Corbbrey have a chance to break through in the wide-open WEC 155-pound division. The breakthrough will materialize for Njokuani, who is the more well-rounded and disciplined fighter. Corbbrey’s relentless aggression leaves huge holes in his defense, and his cardio doesn’t stick around past the first round. A lopsided decision goes to Njokuani, who has nothing but opportunity awaiting him in the friendly confines of the cage.

Deividas Taurosevicius vs. Javier Vazquez

The Bottom Line: After taking a controversial split decision loss in his WEC debut to L.C. Davis, Vazquez gets a shot at vindication against IFL castaway Taurosevicius, who is looking to find his own footing in a new home. Despite a tough road back to MMA, Vazquez proved his game is still plenty sharp. He should be able to grapple his way to a decision against the equally mat-minded Taurosevicius, who lacks the depth of skill Vazquez has displayed. Expect a technical bout that ultimately favors Vazquez’s superior positioning and submission savvy.

Eddie Wineland vs. Manny Tapia

The Bottom Line: Every undercard needs to have a guaranteed slugfest. This is it. Wineland only knows how to fight upright, and Tapia will be all too happy to oblige. And with good reason, as Wineland lacks KO power and relies primarily on piling on damage while Tapia can step right in the pocket and grind out most anyone looking to keep his game under wraps. A two-fight losing streak ends for Tapia, as he pounds out a TKO win fueled by body blows and a bit of that old-school Mexican fighting spirit.

Charlie Valencia vs. Coty Wheeler

The Bottom Line: Two speed-freak bantamweights square off as Valencia and Wheeler try to carve out a permanent WEC spot at the expense of the other. While Wheeler’s record is prettier, he hasn’t faced the same competition as Valencia, who has stayed competitive against some of the division’s best. Besides that, Valencia has the more fundamentally sound approach and doesn’t make the rookie mistakes that Wheeler can’t seem to stop himself from making. It’s a fatal flaw that Valencia will mercilessly exploit.

Wagnney Fabiano vs. Mackens Semerzier

The Bottom Line: The fighting pride of Virginia, Semerzier is lined up for a tough big-time debut against top-tier contender Fabiano in a fight that is akin to sending the world’s best 13-year-old basketball player to the Memphis Grizzlies and expecting a NBA title in short order. Fabiano is simply one of the most suffocating ground specialists in the game. Semerzier lacks both the experience and skill at this point in his career to keep him from turning this fight into a jiu-jitsu competition. For the uninitiated, there aren’t many human beings alive whom Fabiano can’t hit with the Mario Sperry special, and Semerzier is about to become another in a long line.

Scott Jorgensen vs. Noah Thomas

The Bottom Line: Best known for a brief run on “The Ultimate Fighter,” Thomas is looking for vindication as a bantamweight — a search that got off to a bad start when he lost to Frank Gomez in his WEC debut. That trend is set to continue against Jorgensen, who is too good a wrestler for Thomas to do much of anything against except flail wildly and make puppy dog eyes at the referee in search of a stand-up. Jorgensen won’t turn heads with this fight, but he will go home unscathed and with a cut-and-dry unanimous nod in tow.

Friday, October 02, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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The sport’s most anticipated rubber match, the semi-finals and final of a stacked featherweight tournament and the inclusion of Hong Man Choi and Bob Sapp highlight Dream 11 this Tuesday at the Yokohama Arena in Yokohama, Japan.

One can always expect the unusual avalanche of sideshow matchmaking from a Dream event, but the lightweight title bout between reigning champion Joachim Hansen and submission virtuoso Shinya Aoki should be enough to cleanse the palate of any fight snob. Backing up the all-star showdown are the final two rounds of the Dream featherweight grand prix, which features the ongoing Cinderella run of Joe Warren, Hiroyuki Takaya’s attempt to erase the bitter memory of his disappointing World Extreme Cagefighting stint and a pair of submission specialists in Bibiano Fernandes and Hideo Tokoro.

If the promise of such violent goodness does not reel you in, Ikuhisa Minowa will take on Choi in a match that defies any preconceived notions you may have of logic. Get in line for another round of fight analysis.

Dream Lightweight Championship
Joachim Hansen vs. Shinya Aoki

The Breakdown: The rubber match is a rarity in mixed martial arts, and perhaps the last place one would expect to find it is in the chaotic matchmaking web Dream has woven together. Nevertheless, a third bout between Aoki and Hansen, which will decide the future of the lightweight title Hansen currently holds, headlines its latest show.

Anyone with a working Internet connection and access to an MMA forum saw the clip of Aoki’s brilliant gogoplata on Hansen in their first match. However, Hansen learned his lesson in the rematch and scored an abruptly brutal technical knockout over Aoki after nearly getting ensnared in another gogoplata. Despite scoring that win on the mat, Hansen simply does not reside in the same rainbow-colored universe as Aoki when it comes to grappling and will have to rely heavily on his powerful strikes to make up the difference.

In both fights, Aoki took down Hansen with relative ease, using slick outside leg trips and textbook guard pulls. Hansen often made the mistake of loading up on unsightly lead rights that only made Aoki’s takedown attempts much easier to execute. Expecting Hansen to do anything but wing telegraphed power shots seems unrealistic, so Aoki will have the same openings for takedowns he has grown accustomed to seeing. Will Aoki will stay disciplined enough on the mat to keep himself safe from Hansen’s death-from-above ground-and-pound?

There are certain grappling techniques that are not supposed to work in MMA, and Aoki has proven that sort of hard-line thinking wrong time and time again by employing everything from the De La Riva open guard to a hyperactive spider guard. While that elite technical prowess can befuddle even the most talented of grapplers, it remains a risky way to make a living; Hansen has already proven he can punch his fists through the holes in Aoki’s defense. Aoki’s willingness to temper his game against a grappler of Hansen’s caliber will be key, as Aoki’s game is only effective when he keeps his opponents thinking defense; that allows him the time to work them into an inescapable string of submission attempts.

The X Factor: Watching Aoki work on the mat is akin to watching Deep Blue turn Garry Kasparov into a sputtering pile of brain cells — truly awe-inspiring and demands your utmost attention. Of course, Deep Blue never had to worry about Kasparov taking a baseball bat to its motherboard. That is the luxury Aoki does not enjoy, as he still reacts to getting hit as if strikes were illegal. The rematch between these two proved Hansen only needs a small opening to probe Aoki’s brain with his fists. If Aoki cannot put away Hansen early, he will only give him more time to turn the tables and bash him over the head.

* * *

The Bottom Line: Over the course of two matches, Hansen has managed all of five seconds worth of effective offense against Aoki. Granted, those five seconds sent Aoki to bed with no dinner, but that was more a strategic blunder on Aoki’s part than anything else. That same opportunity will not present itself to Hansen again, as he gets caught in a heel hook early in the first round and Aoki ascends to the top of the trans-Pacific heap.

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Stephen Martinez/Sherdog.com

Tatsuya Kawajiri has
learned much from his past.

Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Melchor Manibusan

The Breakdown: Someone in the Dream front office has a serious man crush on “Crusher.” Simply put, Kawajiri is better than Manibusan at everything. Manibusan has not fought in three years, holds a 2-3 record and has no business even entertaining the notion of taking this fight. Someone out there may try and convince us that Manibusan’s amateur wrestling credentials and submission background add an interesting wrinkle to this fight; those people are crazy.

Kawajiri is an excellent wrestler who can stuff takedowns as easily as he executes them. Even if Manibusan can ground Kawajiri, he does not have the game to finish him and will have to deal with Kawajiri’s ever-improving striking skills sooner or later.

The X Factor: No matter how obvious the outcome of a fight may appear, a variable usually exists that can throw everything out of whack. Not this time. Unless Manibusan has somehow spent the past three years recreating Rocky Balboa’s training camp for Ivan Drago and the Clubber Lang rematch, one can feel comfortable banking on Kawajiri.

* * *

The Bottom Line: In all honesty, these kinds of throw-away matches often yield less than inspiring results. If Kawajiri is not tuned in for a fight, we may get a boring lopsided decision instead a scintillating knockout. Either way, Kawajiri takes the win, Manibusan gets a paycheck and everyone walks away happy; that’s what it’s all about anyway. Seriously, check Dream’s rulebook.

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Daniel Herbertson/Sherdog.com

Joe Warren is no
ordinary MMA newcomer.

Dream Featherweight Grand Prix Semi-Final
Bibiano Fernandes vs. Joe Warren

The Breakdown: A super-prospect takes on one of the most underrated grapplers in the game, as Warren locks up with Fernandes in a match that pits Warren’s sterling wrestling game against Fernandes’ fearsome jiu-jitsu style. The real difference maker, however, may be Warren’s surprising boxing skills, which could give a mat-minded Fernandes fits. By the same token, Warren’s jiu-jitsu has never been tested, and Fernandes will have no qualms about pulling guard and trying to tie the American in knots. Can Warren defend that strategy? It makes for a fascinating question since he has already proven he knows so much more than any rookie should.

The X Factor: Natural talent can get you a long way in a developing sport, and Warren is testing the limits of that notion against some elite opposition. Taking a split decision over Norifumi Yamamoto in Japan was a testament to Warren’s moxie, but pure ability is mostly inapplicable when it comes to the technical intricacies of grappling. It will take some exceptionally disciplined strategy by Warren to keep his airway and arms out of harm’s way. Even then, one has to wonder if Warren grasps just how thin a line he will have to walk to keep his undefeated record intact.

* * *

The Bottom Line: Striking will be what turns this fight on its head, as Warren sprawls and brawls his way to a textbook decision win. Time spent on the mat will consist of Warren playing it conservative and taking the nearest exit, as Fernandes struggles to find a groove in between getting his chin checked by Warren’s fists. The clock will prove Fernandes’ greatest enemy, as Warren plays it to his favor en route to stamping his ticket to the final.

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Stephen Martinez/Sherdog.com

Takaya will make the finals.

Dream Featherweight Grand Prix Semi-Final
Hiroyuki Takaya vs. Hideo Tokoro

The Breakdown: You are not likely to ever see a fight with two more disparate fighters. Takaya’s biker gangster persona seems perfectly suited for his kickboxing style, while Tokoro’s janitor turned superstar story has warmed the hearts of millions; his submissions routinely remind opponents he is more than just a Lifetime movie of the week candidate. What Tokoro may lack is the ability to plant Takaya on his back long enough to grab hold of something and torque it, especially considering Takaya’s underrated submission defense and knack for translating his striking to the mat. Unless Tokoro can draw Takaya into a grappling match by hook or crook, his one-dimensional style will not do him any favors in this fight.

The X Factor: Takaya often makes the mistake of over-committing on his strikes and leaving himself vulnerable to takedowns. He also generates a world of power on his power shots, but that will not help him much if he whiffs and fails to recover his guard before Tokoro takes this fight somewhere from which he cannot escape.

* * *

The Bottom Line: This fight will be defined by poor decision making on the part of Tokoro, as he repeats the same mistake he has made in the past and tries his luck on the feet against a superior striker. The end game will be predictable for us and painful for Tokoro, who ends up splayed out on the canvas while Takaya takes the second ticket to the final.

Every so often, tournaments work out. Let’s hope this one does. Takaya and Warren in the same ring seems like the only way anyone can justify watching Bob Sapp fight. As for the potential matchup itself, Warren would do well ditching his ambitions as a striker in favor of grounding-and-pounding Takaya for as long as it takes someone to hand him the grand prix title.

While Warren’s hands are exceptionally skilled at this point, he would be smart to play it safe against a more versatile and learned striker — especially when you consider Takaya’s guard game is not particularly sharp offensively. Plus, he lacks the skill needed to hold down a wrestler of Warren’s caliber.

Warren may lack the good sense to resist trading with Takaya, but he will eventually take him down and do what everyone in his corner hopes — notch a tidy ground-and-pound TKO. With that win, Warren will have gone from relative unknown to featherweight standard bearer in the time it takes an average person to plan a vacation.

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Trevor Williams/Sherdog.com

Minowa will win by submission.

Dream Super Hulk Tournament Semi-Final
Hong Man Choi vs. Ikuhisa Minowa

The Breakdown: The first semi-final bout of Dream’s Super Hulk tournament matches the sufficiently hulky Choi against the decidedly un-hulky Minowa. For the uninitiated, Choi is a big dude — really big, in fact — and that should make for something entertaining against Minowa’s somewhat mentally disturbed approach to fighting.

A self-styled giant killer, Minowa’s unpredictability relies on sleight of hand and the occasional display of submission brilliance, mixed in with moves better suited to the world of professional wrestling. Most of Choi’s skill comes from being built like South Korea’s answer to Shaquille O’Neal. That likely will not be enough to beat someone who has actual MMA training, regardless of how schizophrenic Minowa may seem.

The X Factor: If Minowa has enough crazy in him to try and tangle with Choi on the feet, it will not take long for Choi to prove that someone his size does not need much acceleration to create the force it takes to send someone to the hospital. If nothing else, this fight will be a great measuring stick for Minowa’s craziness.

* * *

The Bottom Line: If Minowa had the sense to try and tap out Bob Sapp, he should follow suit against Choi, who may be even less capable of defending a submission than his equally massive counterpart. Watch for some of Minowa’s usual opening bell lunacy before he shoots a single leg and attaches himself to one of Choi’s limbs. Once that happens, Minowa will have Choi tapping out in short order, giving way to another one of his instant classic post-fight promos.

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Stephen Martinez/Sherdog.com

Sokoudjou is a lock to win.

Dream Super Hulk Tournament Semi-Final
Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou vs. Bob Sapp

The Breakdown: After getting bounced out in the Super Hulk tournament’s opening round, Sapp gets a second chance thanks to Gegard Mousasi’s stateside move, but it comes against the prohibitive favorite. Considering Sokoudjou’s powerful striking and nasty arsenal of judo throws, Sapp’s certified ginormous frame does not seem like much of an asset. Most of Sapp’s offense comes from clubbing his opponents or lying on top and then clubbing them; that is not much of a strategy against a truly skilled opponent like Sokoudjou.

The X Factor: Throughout Sokoudjou’s career, conditioning has cost him multiple fights he was otherwise winning. While Sapp is hardly a supremely conditioned athlete, if Sokoudjou hits empty early, there is no telling how he will react to suddenly being outgunned against a man who can bench press him as a warm-up. Sokoudjou remains the favorite and with good reason, but his cardio has kept him from many a win, and it could just as easily keep him from a victory everyone has assumed was his.

* * * The Bottom Line: As easy as it is to imagine Sokoudjou turning into a sputtering mess after a few minutes of effort, it is even easier to imagine Sapp tapping out before Sokoudjou’s tank reads empty. An early judo trip and some ground-and-pound will be all it takes for Sokoudjou to give Sapp a second early exit from the tournament. Unfortunately, that will do nothing to stop Sapp from recording another Japanese pop album.

Friday, September 18, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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As if Floyd Mayweather Jr. didn’t hate the UFC enough as is, he can expect this Saturday’s UFC 103 event to take a big chunk out of his pay-per-view bonus for fighting Juan Manuel Marquez in Las Vegas the same night the UFC sets up shop in Dallas. Mayweather’s financial fears come with good reason, too. The UFC lineup marks the return of fan favorite Vitor Belfort against former middleweight champion Rich Franklin in a 195-pound catch-weight bout that may be an unconventional main event but should make for top-shelf violence regardless.

Backing up the headliner is the return of Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic, who will take on top heavyweight prospect Junior dos Santos, and the UFC debut of standout British welterweight Paul Daley, who has to tangle with premier contender Martin Kampmann. Rounding out the main card is a welterweight scrap between returning UFC veteran Frank Trigg and the uber-talented Josh Koscheck as well as a critical lightweight tilt pitting Tyson Griffin’s massive legs against Hermes Franca’s cinder block right hand.

I know what I’ll be watching Saturday night: the best of MadTV! I’ve just been informed I’m not allowed to say that, so just watch the fights and keep the hate mail coming. I’m building myself a hammock made entirely out of hate, a hate-mock if you will, and I need just a little more hate to finish it.

Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort

The Breakdown: The weight-class limbo continues for Franklin, who will look to spoil Belfort’s return to the UFC in a 195-pound catch-weight contest. What makes this bout interesting is that for the umpteenth time, Belfort looks like a rejuvenated fighter thanks to knockout wins over Terry Martin and Matt Lindland. More importantly, Belfort has the edge in speed and footwork over Franklin, who has developed a somewhat predictable style that overemphasizes his powerful left body kick and equally dangerous straight left.

While those are Franklin’s best weapons, he leaves himself wide-open for counters on both (see how Wanderlei Silva eventually found those openings in their bout at UFC 99). Belfort is a far more fundamentally sound boxer than Silva. His stiff southpaw jab could create problems for Franklin, who doesn’t do a good job of controlling range with his own jab. This fight certainly doesn’t favor Franklin on the feet, but Belfort has struggled against ground-and-pound-minded opponents in the past and Franklin has shown nasty striking on the mat.

The ground part of that strategy may prove difficult for Franklin, however. Belfort is hardly a free takedown, and Franklin himself is typically hesitant to hit the mat. If Franklin can’t disrupt Belfort’s rhythm on the feet with takedowns or clinch work, his chin will eventually catch up to him and Belfort has long been one of the best finishers in the game.

The X Factor: Matching southpaws against each other always yields interesting results, and both fighters could find it difficult to effectively employ their favored tactics. The other variable looming over this fight is Belfort’s brain, which is about as stable as an Iranian election. It doesn’t take much to throw Belfort off his game, and Franklin is as focused and committed a fighter as you’ll ever find. “Ace” needs to make this an uncomfortable fight for Belfort. If he allows Belfort to sit back, create angles and measure punches, this fight will be a painfully one-sided proposition for Cincinnati’s favorite son.

The Bottom Line: Trying to predict what Belfort will do is as pointless as watching a Rob Schneider movie in search of a laugh. With that said, Belfort has finally started doing all the things fans have been begging him to do for years: stay patient, work the jab and use all of his skills. Franklin won’t have an answer for Belfort’s superior boxing and massive hand speed advantage, and by the time he does go for a takedown, he’ll find it far easier said than done. This one ends with Franklin starched on the canvas and Belfort instantaneously christened as a premier contender in the middleweight class.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Is Mirko “Cro Cop” back?

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Junior “Cigano” dos Santos

The Breakdown: The new guard of the UFC heavyweight division gets another chance to announce their presence when Dos Santos looks to add a high-profile scalp to his collection against faded heavyweight superstar Filipovic. Once upon a time in Pride, Filipovic’s K1-bred kickboxing made him a terror. Time, however, has robbed him of the balance, reflexes and footwork that made him such a uniquely dangerous fighter. It makes for a stark contrast to the Filipovic of today, who now relies heavily on boxing that doesn’t match up against Dos Santos’ superior hand speed and accuracy.

Although Dos Santos does have the habit of walking straight in and keeping his right hand too low, Filipovic was getting walked down by Mustapha Al-Turk at UFC 99 and, more importantly, I could solve world hunger in the time it took him to find the huge openings in Al-Turk’s defense. When Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg find the holes in your opponent’s defense before you do, you’ve got problems. Dos Santos’ aggressive style means Filipovic won’t have the time he needs to find a home for his strikes. Cro-Bauer doesn’t do well when he’s forced out of his methodical style, and Dos Santos will step right inside his range with powerful, accurate punches. Whether Filipovic still has the balance and speed to do anything about it is what will decide his future fistic luck.

The X Factor: Injuries are the universal reality in sports, and figuring out just how much they influence a fighter’s performance is like trying to get through an episode of TMZ: absolutely pointless in multiple ways. Filipovic has struggled with injuries in the past. Now he claims a clean bill of health, but after watching his supposed comeback against Al-Turk, it looks as if he has more than injuries to worry about. The tools are there: Filipovic’s left high kick and southpaw jab are made to pick apart Dos Santos. The ability to use them may be a thing of the past, though.

The Bottom Line: At this point in his career, Filipovic’s legendary left high kick is a weapon he can no longer wield, and that inability to keep opponents at bay with the threat of kicks has thrown off his whole striking game. This reality will become apparent when Dos Santos gets right in his grill and starts winging combinations that our favorite terrorist stomper doesn’t have the means to evade or counter. It won’t take long for Dos Santos to discover that his favored left hook feint to right uppercut combo has a home inside Filipovic’s defense, and that same right uppercut that caved in Werdum’s jaw will add another low point to Filipovic’s UFC career.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Kampmann has nearly every edge.

Martin Kampmann vs. Paul Daley

The Breakdown: Originally a high-stakes No. 1-contender match, Kampmann’s scheduled opponent, Mike Swick, was a late scratch thanks to a training camp injury. In Swick’s stead is brutal British kickboxer Paul Daley. A new face in the mutant shark tank that is the welterweight division, Daley is one of the best strikers in the game today, but his takedown defense and subpar jiu-jitsu have kept him from fulfilling his obvious potential. While Kampmann is known for his kickboxing base, he has developed excellent takedown skills inside the Greco-Roman clinch and his jiu-jitsu is surprisingly fluid.

What should worry Kampmann is his chin, which made his time as a middleweight extremely difficult and could haunt him again if he allows this fight to turn into a pure kickboxing match. Unfortunately for Daley, Kampmann is a savvy fighter who knows when to switch gears. Kampmann’s reach advantage over Daley will also allow him to use the jab to keep Daley from charging in. That tactic was used to great effect by Nick Thompson in his bout with Daley, and as long as Kampmann follows suit, Daley will have tapped out long before he gets a chance to score the knockout.

The X Factor: An underrated aspect of Daley’s game is his skill inside the Thai clinch. It could pose a problem for Kampmann, who uses the clinch to set up his takedowns. Any takedowns Kampmann goes for will have to be executed swiftly, and if he plans on keeping Daley down, he needs to avoid the cage or risk Daley cage walking his way out of trouble. Treading carefully will be key for Kampmann in this bout, as the slightest mistake could give Daley all the opportunity he needs to send him on a one-way trip to the canvas.

The Bottom Line: Daley will make for an interesting addition to the UFC, but he won’t crack the upper echelon of contenders and it will show against Kampmann. The difference in wrestling ability will simply be too much for Daley to overcome, and Kampmann’s own kickboxing background should be enough to keep him out of harm’s way. Expect Daley to have his moments on the feet. They will be quickly snatched away, though, as Kampmann hits takedown after takedown and wears down the British sparkplug en route to a second-round submission win via the arm-triangle choke.

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Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com

Koscheck needs a win.

Josh Koscheck vs. Frank Trigg

The Breakdown: After an extended vacation from the UFC, Trigg returns to face what haunted him throughout his first run in the Octagon — an elite wrestler. Any way you approach it, Koscheck is one of the best wrestlers in the game, and Trigg’s time as an elite welterweight was given an unceremonious end at the hands of dominant wrestlers — namely, Matt Hughes and Georges St. Pierre. If this turns into a wrestling match, Koscheck is not only the vastly superior overall wrestler, his jiu-jitsu is solid as well and Trigg is notorious for guard work that resembles the death throes of someone being eaten alive (not pretty).

The only reason this fight isn’t a slam dunk for Koscheck is that he’s taken to running himself off the cliff like a B-grade Wile E. Coyote lately. For whatever reason, he has been acting like a boxer his last three fights and, not surprisingly, he’s got a 1-2 record to match. I’m all for fighters becoming versatile but not when it’s more self-destructive than dating Chris Brown. As we saw in Koscheck’s bout with Thiago Alves, all it takes is a few stuffed takedowns to draw Koscheck into a firefight. While that still doesn’t guarantee Trigg the W he so desperately needs, it’s probably his only hope.

The X Factor: While Koscheck’s fans hope he’s regained his senses and reverts back to his ground-and-pound ways, the more pragmatic observer has to wonder if he has lost the edge on his wrestling after going more than a year without using it effectively. Skills are not static. The less you use them, the more they lose their effectiveness. In all fairness, Trigg’s wrestling ability has faded, but it may not matter if Koscheck has lost that extra gear on his supersonic shot.

The Bottom Line: This fight is a bitter slice of reality for Trigg. He isn’t the fighter he used to be and, even at his best, Koscheck is a better version of him. Expect Trigg to try and press Koscheck on the feet, which is the exact opposite of what he should do considering both Alves and Paulo Thiago found success by letting Koscheck come to them. Regardless of what Trigg does, bank on Koscheck’s trainers at AKA getting him back to focusing on double legs instead of overhand rights. Once Koscheck gets Trigg on his back, start taking bets on how long it takes for the tapout.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Add another to Tyson
Griffin’s trophy case.

Tyson Griffin vs. Hermes Franca

The Breakdown: The opener for the evening may be the night’s most interesting match, as UFC veteran Hermes Franca looks to comeback from a disastrous torn ACL by taking out one of the lightweight division’s new guard in Tyson Griffin. What makes this matchup so interesting is that both fighters seem to have the same problem: They rely too much on their standup for offense despite having strong mat skills. Inaccurate power punches and the occasional leg kick do not a striker make, regardless of what these two think.

With that said, there will likely be plenty of striking in this fight with both men doing the same thing: landing booming leg kicks and the occasional power punch, which will ultimately lead nowhere since neither of them has the accuracy or fundamentals to string together punches effectively. The real difference in this bout is that Griffin knows how to move from striking to wrestling fluidly, and Franca lacks the takedown defense to do anything about it except flail like he’s riding a rollercoaster with no seatbelt on.

While Franca’s guard is certainly dangerous, Griffin has neutralized jiu-jitsu players like Rafael dos Anjos and Thiago Tavares. By the same token, Franca has losses to Sean Sherk and Frankie Edgar, both of whom approximate Griffin’s style. As long as Griffin stays cautious inside Franca’s guard or passes it altogether, his ground-and-pound game will loom large in this bout.

The X Factor: For reasons that defy probability, Franca always finds a way to land his hideous yet undeniably effective overhand right. That one punch nearly turned a lopsided decision win for Edgar into a knockout loss, and it is also the punch Griffin must avoid at all costs. Considering Griffin’s ongoing love affair with kickboxing, he may not have the wherewithal to realize the obvious until after Franca leaves his head looking like a mildly used piñata.

The Bottom Line: This will be the tensest bout of the night. Rounds will be won or lost by the slimmest of margins. Ultimately, Griffin will take the edge by stepping inside of Franca’s punches, throwing quick combos and immediately going for the takedown. That wash, rinse and repeat approach worked beautifully for Edgar, and don’t think Griffin’s trainers at Xtreme Couture aren’t aware of it. Superior strategy wins the match for Griffin, who takes home a close but clear-cut decision to relaunch his run at the lightweight title.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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While the world wonders how the former street fight champion of YouTube, Kimbo Slice, will fit into the already bizarre realm of reality TV, those of us with two brain cells to scrape together can look forward to UFC Fight Night on Wednesday. Oklahoma City, a home to both good in mega-baller Kevin Durant and pure evil in Garth Brooks, will play host to its first UFC card since Yeltsin’s booze-fueled heyday. With the titular main card matching Stockton trash-talker supreme Nate Diaz against his New Orleans equivalent in Melvin Guillard, the pre-fight interview highlights will be better than anything in television history.

The rest of the main card lives up to the same fistic standard. Roger Huerta will make his UFC return against the new blue-chipper of the lightweight class, Gray Maynard, while the king of the mean-face, Carlos Condit, locks up with UFC debutante Jake Ellenberger. Rounding out an evening of top-shelf violence is Tim Credeur putting his undefeated UFC run up against middleweight gatekeeper du jour, Nate Quarry.

Be honest with yourselves about your Wednesday night plans: You can either watch super-athletes fight for money or you can spend your night gambling on major network midseason replacements. I think anyone who watched “More to Love” will tell you that for the sake of your faith in the decency of humanity, just watch the fights.

Nate Diaz vs. Melvin Guillard

The Breakdown: One of the more unlikely UFC main events in recent memory finds Diaz desperately trying to put a two-fight losing streak behind him while Guillard is coming off a controversial but career-saving win over Gleison Tibau that some consider the biggest Christmas gift since Ralphie got his BB gun at the end of “A Christmas Story.” What really bailed out Guillard in his bout with Tibau was his ability to stuff the initial takedown attempt and cage walk his way out of trouble whenever Tibau finished. Diving forward for takedowns is not Diaz’s game, though, as he prefers to trade on the feet and transition to the mat during scrambles.

The first part of that approach will be critical as Guillard’s speed and power make him a constant knockout threat, albeit one with holes in his defense that Diaz’s southpaw stance is ready-made to exploit. Namely, Guillard keeps his left hand dangerously low and drops it down to the Mariana Trench whenever he leads with the jab. Much like his chronically chronic older brother, Diaz throws a lot of right hooks and it may be a matter of time before one finds Guillard’s suspect chin. As we’ve seen in his bouts with both Tibau and Joe Stevenson, once Guillard gets rocked, his all-universe takedown defense disappears faster than Alec at a Baldwin brothers reunion. Not good news for a fighter who gives up position far too easily and relies more on athleticism than skill on the mat.

The X Factor: Bravado runs deep for Diaz. He’ll have no qualms about trading with Guillard despite giving up speed, power and versatility on the feet to him. By the same token, Guillard was shooting double legs on Tibau, which was like watching a zebra fillet itself for a lion. Diaz will happily pull guard if Guillard makes the same mistake, but he may not get the chance to if he starts playing Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots first. Neither fighter is Bobby Fischer when it comes to strategy, but they’ll both need some to keep their flaws from becoming fatal.

The Bottom Line: For all the improvement Guillard showed in his match with Tibau, he still didn’t land much in the first two rounds and got soundly outclassed in the third. Against an opponent who is far more aggressive on the mat and better equipped to hold his own standing, Guillard will have even less margin for error and it’s always a matter of time before he starts leaving himself open. Expect Diaz to frustrate Guillard with the right hook-straight left combo early before putting the lights out by chin-checking Guillard and catching him mid-scramble with a textbook brabo choke.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Might be a long night for Huerta.

Gray Maynard vs. Roger Huerta

The Breakdown: There is no fury like a Dana scorned. That is a lesson Huerta is coming to grips with as his final UFC-contracted bout comes against the human battering ram known as Gray Maynard. For those not in the know, Huerta complained publicly about fighter compensation and then took an extended vacation from the UFC to try his luck in Hollywood. Despite being built into a star by the UFC’s marketing machinations, the holes in Huerta’s wrestling and striking were on display for all to see in bouts against Kenny Florian and Clay Guida. Maynard’s combination of stultifying wrestling and perpetually improving boxing means Huerta is being lined up for a loss.

Just look at Huerta’s struggles in the past to stop wrestlers like Douglas Evans and Guida from scoring takedowns at will. Now consider Maynard’s purebred wrestling pedigree for all the proof you need that Maynard will control the terms of engagement from the opening bell. While Huerta has always relied on his striking to get him out of trouble, his boxing is substandard and he has the bad habit of telegraphing his kicks and knees by either opening his stance too early or planting his lead foot too far out in front. With Maynard having ditched his haymaker style in favor of a more disciplined approach, Huerta won’t have the luxury of fighting a reckless opponent and it doesn’t take much more than a sound game plan to knock off the UFC’s would-be Mexican superstar.

The X Factor: For all of Maynard’s obvious talent, he’s still very much a straight-up boxer/wrestler archetype, and that is something Huerta can take advantage of. One obvious weakness is that Maynard checks leg kicks about as often as Matthew McConaughey stars in a quality movie. Huerta may not be Buakaw, but neither is Jim Miller. Miller was able to land both leg and body kicks with ease against Maynard, who appeared clueless on how to defend them. The other hole in Maynard’s style is his habit of going for body blows without setting them up properly, which only leaves him wide open for counters upstairs. In order for Huerta to even think of capitalizing on that, though, he’ll have to keep his punches short and his feet moving because his chin won’t keep him upright for long if he tries his Julio Cesar Chavez impersonation on Maynard.

The Bottom Line: The problem for Huerta here is that even if he strikes the right balance on the feet, there isn’t a thing he can do to stop from getting sucked into the black hole that is Maynard’s shot. Huerta already got a reprieve from the fight gods in his fight with Guida when he hit that unholy knee. Expecting the same against an even better version of the same fighter makes my inner statistician laugh. Maynard will learn from Guida’s Waterloo moment: He’ll keep Huerta horizontal while methodically wearing him down from half-guard before eventually taking a bloody ground-and-pound TKO win.

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Stephen Martinez/Sherdog.com

Expect violence in this bout.

Carlos Condit vs. Jake Ellenberger

The Breakdown: From the life-isn’t-fair file, Ellenberger will be making his UFC debut on a month’s notice and he has to snuff out the butterflies while surviving the offensive brilliance of Condit. In fairness to Ellenberger, he’s just as aggressive as Condit and has shown power on the feet as well as a dangerous top game when he passes guard. However, like most hyper-aggressive fighters, Ellenberger is hiding some flaws. The most glaring is a porous guard and striking defense that is highlighted by dropping his hands every chance he gets.

The latter is the biggest problem. Condit may not be a kill-shot artist, but he is rangy and accurate while Ellenberger does his best work from close quarters. Should Ellenberger somehow manage to collapse the pocket, Condit’s clinch game is superior and Ellenberger’s finishing skill on takedowns reminds me of watching Carlos Mencia make a joke: They both try real hard but fail spectacularly. Wasting all that effort on poorly executed takedowns leaves Ellenberger vulnerable late, and Condit has the gas tank to take over just as Ellenberger fades. If that happens, Ellenberger’s fade will quickly turn into a flop.

The X Factor: Most of Condit’s success on the feet is built on using his accuracy and versatility to dictate the tempo, but Ellenberger’s speed and power advantage gives him the ability to throw Condit’s rhythm off by moving in and out with flurries. Keeping the pace unpredictable would keep Condit from finding his range and allow Ellenberger to rack up points without turning the fight into a brawl that he would eventually lose. That strategy, however, would take composure that Ellenberger has yet to show. More than anything, he has to stay focused on creating a fight that he can win instead of going kamikaze and getting his head kicked off.

The Bottom Line: Ellenberger is fighting someone who does everything better than him, which leaves few options and numerous problems. It won’t take Condit long to exploit that as he keeps Ellenberger at bay with kicks and straight punches while countering his flurries by working compact hook combos up close. As the damage takes its toll on Ellenberger and he starts losing the steam on his strikes, the difference in skill will become painfully obvious. Bank on seeing plenty of Condit’s Lecter-esque psycho-smile before he notches a lopsided TKO win.

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File Photo

Quarry will have his hand raised.

Nate Quarry vs. Tim Credeur

The Breakdown: Watching Credeur go 3-0 in the UFC is like watching Brett Favre play quarterback: You just know things are going horribly wrong sooner rather than later. That 3-0 run can’t hide striking fundamentals so hideous they’d make Freddie Roach have a grand mal seizure on sight. Whether it’s Credeur’s telegraphed punches, uncoordinated footwork or the especially troubling combination of keeping his chin up while leaning his upper body forward, Quarry will have no shortage of openings to exploit on the feet and his down-the-pipe punching style is precisely what Credeur has appeared vulnerable to in the past.

The most bizarre part of Credeur’s striking is that there is no reason for him to use it so much. His jiu-jitsu skill is impressive, and he is one of the few whose offensive repertoire is not reliant on gaining the top position. That’s an important factoid since Quarry is the superior wrestler and will likely follow his usual game plan of unloading on the feet before transitioning to ground-and-pound mode if he meets with resistance. The problem here is that Credeur has the stereotypical banger’s mentality. Given Quarry’s significant edge in punching power, by the time Credeur realizes he needs to work his jiu-jitsu, he may be on a stool getting his brain functions checked. Fighting mediocre UFC talent has allowed Credeur to succeed without resolving the issues in his game; that trend ends with this fight.

The X Factor: Unlike most grapplers in an MMA setting, Credeur favors using an open guard that relies on butterfly hooks to disrupt his opponent’s base and keep him safe from ground-and-pound tactics. That strategy worked beautifully against Nick Catone, but if you watch Quarry’s bout with Jason MacDonald, you’ll notice Quarry turned into Conan the Destroyer as soon as MacDonald opened up his guard. If Credeur has to use his guard at any point, his usual approach may end with him being crushed and driven away as Quarry hears the lamentations of the women and ignores the vengeful howls of Crom. I need to stop writing after watching 80’s movies.

The Bottom Line: Quarry may not be a reference-quality striker, but he’s significantly improved his footwork and defensive skills, which has resulted in a fighter who isn’t quite so painfully robotic as he once was. Being able to use footwork to create angles on a fighter who throws sloppy, looping punches is always key. Not only does Quarry have that ability, his power means he will need only a handful of chances to put fist to face. Once that happens, Credeur’s awkward style will become a fight-ending liability as Quarry takes an impressive ground-and-pound TKO win after dropping Credeur with a straight right down the pipe early.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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Flying ninja robots, mutant monkey assassins and … wait, that’s next month’s UFC. No worries. UFC 102 “Couture vs. Nogueira,” booked for the Rose Garden in Portland, Ore., is stacked top to bottom with enough top-shelf violence to claim yet another Saturday night from mixed martial arts fans the world over.

With a main card headlined by two of the sport’s heavyweight heavyweights, Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, one needs no other reason to cancel that family reunion and spend an evening getting reacquainted with the wonders of television.

Plus, Demian Maia will flex his jiu-jitsu, Keith Jardine will remind the world he’s the world’s funkiest Viking and maybe those flying ninja robots will make an appearance. In the meantime, settle in for some serious fight talk. Perhaps some of it will manage to be accurate.

Scott Doctor/Splash News

Randy “The Natural” Couture.

Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

The Breakdown: Two of MMA’s heavyweight legends look to prove naysayers wrong one more time, as elder face smasher Couture takes on a suddenly shopworn Nogueira. Despite being just a few months removed from his 33rd birthday, Nogueira’s years of absorbing beatings like a Brazilian Jake LaMotta seemed to catch up with him when Frank Mir soundly trounced him at UFC 92. Couture is not coming off the fight of his life, either, as he failed to stop the centaur known as Brock Lesnar from claiming the heavyweight crown that once rested on his own head. With that said, Couture has not left his last few fights looking like a back-alley hospital patient.

With Mir having already written the script for starching Nogueira, watch for Couture to use his wrestling to keep the fight standing and rely on his boxing from there. Whether or not playing the same tune as Mir works for Couture will depend on just how much of his old self Nogueira has rediscovered in his eight months away from the cage. In a sport where nostalgia runs deep but counts for little, Nogueira has to prove he still has something left to offer after already giving so much.

The X Factor: Lost in all the dismissive chatter about Nogueira is the fact that Couture is a 46-year-old man competing in a sport that skews younger than the cast of whatever atrocious teen-age drama the CW airs. Sooner or later, Couture is going to hit the same wall Brett Favre has already run into several times. How capable Nogueira is of sending him on his way remains anyone’s guess, but he’s proven everyone wrong countless times before.

***

The Bottom Line: Nogueira fans should start practicing their cringing, as Couture is going to turn this into a one-sided dirty boxing display that the Brazilian won’t be able to do much of anything about. No miracle submissions this time around, as Nogueira ends up getting saved by the referee’s sense of compassion but not before taking two rounds worth of Couture’s old-school bullying.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Keith Jardine.

Thiago Silva vs. Keith Jardine

The Breakdown: Two of the light heavyweight division’s forgotten men look to restart their title runs, as Silva and Jardine try to bounce back from demoralizing losses by bouncing their fists off of each other’s heads. While Jardine is at his best snapping leg kicks and confounding opponents with his off-kilter timing and angles, Silva is at his best on the mat, using his slick guard passing and positioning to pound out opponents. However, Silva often confuses himself with a striker, and that bit of identity crisis could cost him a fight he can ill afford to lose.

The X Factor: As uncoordinated as Jardine looks inside the cage, he actually has shown stout takedown defense. That could become a major factor, as Silva has the bad habit of going into Clubber Lang mode when his takedowns come up short. Discipline and proper game planning have been absent from Silva’s game before, and he’ll need both to deal with Jardine.

***

The Bottom Line: My personal betting favorite for “Fight of the Night,” expect a wild one, with Jardine loading up on the leg kicks and Silva answering with his underrated clinch game. Eventually, Silva’s struggle for the takedown will tax his cardio and leave him gasping for air as Jardine starts finding a home for his unorthodox arsenal. Do not expect Silva’s chin to be up to the punishment, as Jardine scores an impressive third-round technical knockout and immediately goes into Techno Viking mode.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Nate Marquardt.

Demian Maia vs. Nate Marquardt

The Breakdown: Title implications abound, as jiu-jitsu demigod Maia looks to lock up a date with UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva by keeping Marquardt from a second date with the Baryshnikov of violence. At this point, Maia is a tough fighter to gauge, as his jiu-jitsu has proven so dominant that no one has forced him to show anything but his all-universe mat machinations. While Marquardt is a solid grappler in his own right, he is well out of his depth against Maia and must instead focus on using his strength and striking advantage in tandem to keep this fight upright. Otherwise, Marquardt will be padding Maia’s bank account by ending up on the wrong end of a “Submission of the Night” award.

The X Factor: No one knows anything about Maia’s striking or conditioning, and Marquardt has the style to keep this fight going long enough to get answers on both fronts. Plenty of fighters look like the second coming of Chuck Norris when they get to play by their own rules and just as many come crashing down to earth when the game changes on them. Sooner or later, Maia is going to have to step outside his kingdom, and Marquardt may just drag him out of it kicking, screaming and perhaps even tapping.

***

The Bottom Line: This will be Maia’s toughest fight yet, but not even Marquardt busting out the pile driver again will be enough to save him from getting ensnared in the Brazilian’s web of tangled limbs and blocked airways. The difference maker this time around will be Maia’s wrestling, as Marquardt struggles to keep him at bay before learning the same lesson Chael Sonnen learned against Maia — some of these jiu-jitsu guys have that wrestling stuff pretty well figured out.

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James Meinhardt/Sherdog.com

Chris Leben.

Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt

The Breakdown: The dearly departed John Hughes would be proud to see this battle of high school archetypes, as the skateboarding outcast, Leben, takes on the classic uber-jock, Rosholt. While everyone in high school knew better than to tempt the ginormous wrestler, the absurd hype that accompanied Rosholt’s MMA transition has proven premature, as he went from overblown prospect in World Extreme Cagefighting to overmatched bust in his UFC debut against Dan Miller. This may be Rosholt’s last chance to reclaim some of his lost cache, but Leben will not be an easy mark, as his cinderblock fists and steadily improving jiu-jitsu are not weapons Rosholt’s one-note style is built to withstand.

The X Factor: Unless Rosholt either body slams Leben unconscious or runs chin-first into one of his fists, conditioning will be critical as this bout wears on. While Leben has had to dig deep on many an occasion, Rosholt has just six fights to his name and barely lasted a minute in his less than grand UFC debut. One way or another, Rosholt will answer a lot of the questions surrounding his once promising career.

***

The Bottom Line: Leben will keep it close early by frustrating Rosholt on the mat before leveling him with his trademark overhand right late in the second round. If you listen closely, you can hear the Rosholt bandwagon clearing out.

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Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com

Brandon Vera.

Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski

The Breakdown: Mr. Scrabble, Soszynski, puts his run of Octagon dominance against the perpetually hyped Vera in a bout that both men desperately need to win in order to make headway in the lion’s den light heavyweight class. While the hype machine favors Vera, Soszynski has come alive like Peter Frampton in the UFC, and his combination of bruising striking and a paralyzing mat game is just the style with which Vera has struggled. Do not discount Vera’s leg-snapping kickboxing, but he’s always struggled to impose his style on opponents, and Soszynski excels at forcing his game down the throat of whoever stares him down from across the cage.

The X Factor: For all the talent these two possess, they both have a history of coming up shorter than an Oompa-Loompa in big spots. If either fighter plans on making a serious run at the strap, those days of in-cage thumb twitting need to go the way of U2’s musical legitimacy. Pre-fight assurances aside, that history of ineffective violence weighs heavily on this bout. Whoever can’t exorcise that demon from his past will be moving one step closer to the UFC’s one-way exit.

***

The Bottom Line: After years spent as a highly touted blue-chipper, Vera will complete his slow slide into bust status, as “The Polish Experiment” dissects him with a memorable ground-and-pound assault.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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Two of the heavyweight division’s most legendary fighters, Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, will spit on their birth certificates and try for another round of Octagon glory at UFC 102 “Couture vs. Nogueira” this Saturday at the Rose Garden in Portland, Ore.

Because the name recognition is off the charts with those two, another quality undercard gets the short end of the publicity stick. Such injustices must not go on, so here follows another round of top-to-bottom prognostication.

The prelims are a smooth mix of prospects set to break the hype meter and unimpressed veterans looking to break the meter against the head of anyone looking to take their spots. Board the Todd Duffee bandwagon, ponder Justin McCully’s cornrows and shake your head as we try to bend the laws of probability for Chris Tuchscherer.

 

Photo Courtesy: UFC.com

Ed Herman.

Ed Herman vs. Aaron Simpson

The Breakdown: In the sleeper bout of the undercard, fast-rising middleweight prospect Simpson will make a Scott Bakula-level quantum leap in competition against Herman, who has entrenched himself as the division’s top gatekeeper. While Simpson has made his name with an undefeated string of technical knockout wins, Herman’s home remains on the mat, where he works his Team Quest-influenced brand of ground strikes and submissions. How Simpson holds up against Herman’s wrestling will be critical, as the former Arizona State wrestler has yet to show us if his wrestling pedigree translates to his new profession. Consider it an important tidbit, as Simpson’s human steamroller impersonation will not impress Herman, who has the chin and experience to force almost anyone out of their comfort zone.

The X Factor: Simpson’s dominance has proven a double-edged sword, as no one is quite sure how he’ll react when he has to work for a win against top-tier competition. Proving your mettle against someone like Herman is a lot like proving you can read by taking the SAT. How Simpson handles this steep step up will play heavily in how his evening — and any future UFC dates — plays out.

***

The Bottom Line: This will be the fight eagle-eyed fans watch closely. The next wave of middleweight challengers is in the midst of announcing its presence, and Simpson could be next in line. Do not expect him to make that move against Herman, who will turn this into a rough-and-tumble affair by skipping the striking and going for a ground-and-pound siege. There will be some dicey moments for Herman, as Simpson is bound to get in his licks sooner or later. The scorecards will smile on Herman, however, as he leaves his quarry a bloody mess after three rounds of plastic surgery disguised as ground-and-pound.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Gabriel Gonzaga.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Chris Tuchscherer

The Breakdown: Not much to break down here, besides the fact that Gonzaga has been a top heavyweight contender for years and Tuchscherer’s gaudy record cannot cover up the stink from time spent in the YAMMA bowl. More than anything, Tuchscherer’s record serves as a testament to the dearth of quality heavyweights outside the major leagues of MMA. Tuchscherer will quickly become aware of that fact against Gonzaga, who has him beat on the mat and feet.

The X Factor: Unless Tuchscherer can break out a killer Junior dos Santos impersonation, he will find himself in way over his head in his UFC debut. Fighters brought into the UFC as little more than chum have turned probability on its head before, but the MMA Gods will allow only so much chaos in one calendar year.

***

The Bottom Line: Tuchscherer will make it to the second minute before he taps out. Expect another newcomer to get chewed up, spit out and sent home.

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Photo by Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Mike Russow.

Justin McCully vs. Mike Russow

The Breakdown: The UFC finally got the memo about the need for more heavyweights. Russow is one of three such competitors debuting on the undercard. McCully and his army of blood-curdling cornrows will take on the forgotten Pride Fighting Championships prospect. McCully has skated by in the UFC by out-wrestling strikers with the takedown defense of Meryl Streep. That is a luxury McCully will not enjoy against Russow, who is likely the better wrestler and certainly the more effective grappler. Unless McCully’s cornrows have some sort of Medusa effect he has kept secret, this looks like the end of his lay-and-pray reign.

The X Factor: Few expected McCully to stick around in the UFC; if nothing else, he has proven he can avoid danger and stay within his comfort zone. While Russow has shown the fundamentally superior wrestling game thus far, if McCully can find a flaw in his takedown defense, this fight takes on a whole new dimension. Russow has plenty of submissions to his name, which makes for a nice insurance policy, but getting the job done off his back with McCully clinging to him like a strait jacket is something for which he may not be ready.

***

The Bottom Line: Russow has quietly amassed a seven-fight winning streak, and he has proven a far more evolved fighter than McCully, who has nothing to offer beyond top control against this level of competition. Russow will mercilessly capitalize on his advantages, as he soundly outwrestles McCully before putting him away with his favored north-south choke midway through the first round.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Tim Hague.

Todd Duffee vs. Tim Hague

The Breakdown: Just one of several genetic anomalies populating the heavyweight division, the skyscraper with fists known as Hague will look to follow up his spoiler win over Patrick Barry by derailing another top-flight prospect in American Top Team disciple Duffee. Unlike Barry, Duffee is a full-fledged heavyweight, and his time with ATT has molded him into a surprisingly well-rounded fighter despite a record that’s thinner than an Olsen sister. That lack of world-class opposition may not matter much, as Hague has not taken on any world beaters. While Hague’s size and surprising skill make him a difficult style matchup, his usual routine of physically overwhelming opponents will not be enough to keep his upset streak alive.

The X Factor: When you have more than 12 feet and 500 pounds of humanity in the cage, cardio is bound to come into play, unless the Octagon collapses. Barring any such incident, the cardio battle will hinge on who can generate maximum offense with minimal effort. Hague’s solid record obscures the fact that his movements are severely telegraphed and his reach is virtually ignored as a strategic advantage. While Duffee is practically the same size as Hague, he is the faster and more dynamic fighter, which makes him the one more likely to take over when the adrenaline and testosterone meters hit zero.

***

The Bottom Line: Hague just barely managed to beat Barry and took plenty of damage en route; repeating that feat against a game opponent he cannot bully around is beyond his ability. The UFC hopes this fight can launch Duffee’s career, as he’s one of North America’s premier heavyweight prospects. Hague has just enough cache to his name to pass as a suitable opponent. Watch for Duffee to weather the Octagon jitters by keeping the kind of pace that would make a speed junkie blush. Hague will have no answer, except to tap the canvas when Duffee flips the switch and goes into a ground-and-pound frenzy.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Mark Munoz.

Nick Catone vs. Mark Munoz

The Breakdown: Give Catone some credit; he’s a solid fighter who works an especially nasty top control game by combining his strong base and workmanlike submission skills. The problem? He’s facing Munoz, a born and bred mauler on the mat. A tremendous collegiate wrestler at Oklahoma State University, Munoz keeps up a surprisingly torrid pace, designed to trample opponents with the sheer volume of his offense. Catone prefers the slow and steady routine. Catone will not do himself any favors fighting methodically, and considering his usual offensive strategy is rendered useless against Munoz’s dominating wrestling, he would do well to unveil something no one has seen from him before.

The X Factor: Not everything is in Munoz’s favor for this fight, as he’s making his first cut down to middleweight and looking to rebound from a brutal knockout loss to Matt Hamill. Predicting how prospects will react to getting their skull inverted is an inexact science at best, but Munoz’s chin is hardly a house of cards, and Catone’s striking has not kept up anyone late at night.

***

The Bottom Line: Neither fighter likes working off his back, and Munoz is the better wrestler. While applying mathematical principles to MMA is something folks should leave to YouTube analysts, Munoz does not have much to worry about from Catone as long as he doesn’t baseball slide into a shin or guillotine choke. Look for Munoz to triumph, as he grounds-and-pounds his way to an impressive middleweight debut.

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Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Marcus Aurelio.

Marcus Aurelio vs. Evan Dunham

The Breakdown: The new blood, Dunham, takes on the mercurial blood in Aurelio, whose entire career has been spent going back and forth between atom-smasher and glorified pickaxe. That inconsistency has kept Aurelio trapped under a glass ceiling of his own making, but Dunham looks like just the kind of foe Aurelio has eaten alive in the UFC. A solid if unspectacular fighter, Dunham needs to get Aurelio off balance early or risk getting plowed over by one of the Brazilian’s cannonball double legs and ending up as just another submission skin for the part-time virtuoso.

The X Factor: The only factor that should keep anyone from running to the bank with Aurelio is the troubling disconnect between his brain and body. For someone with real athleticism to go with his technical savvy, Aurelio puts two and two together with all the consistency of a 4-year-old. If Dunham can throw a wrench in Aurelio’s plans early, it will not be long before he’s beating him upside the head with it.

***

The Bottom Line: Aurelio is due for another one of those fights during which he whips his fans into a frenzy by turning some hapless soul into a glorified grappling dummy. That supporting role awaits Dunham, who will not be able to stave off Aurelio’s opening bell bull rush and will instead have to wait for a bailout from the referee.

Thursday, August 13, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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No matter what Strikeforce’s big shots have to say about it, signing Fedor Emelianenko is the biggest blow the UFC has taken in years. And while this Saturday’s “Carano vs. Cyborg” event may not feature MMA’s golden goose, it is the promotion’s first chance to cash in on the buzz surrounding its name.

Great timing on the part of Strikeforce, as Gina Carano is one of the promotion’s most recognizable stars and fans have been clamoring for her to take on Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos for what seems like an eternity now.

Backing up that momentous showcase for women’s MMA is an interim lightweight bout pitting Gilbert Melendez against the man who handed him his first professional loss, Japanese sparkplug Mitsuhiro Ishida. Throw in the hotly anticipated lightweight title bout between Renato “Babalu” Sobral and another new acquisition, division-hopping ace Gegard Mousasi, and this is Strikeforce’s best chance yet to carve out a piece of the pie the UFC has been hoarding.

How that shakes out is anyone’s guess, but everyone lucky enough to get price gouged by their local cable company for Showtime will have a chance to find out for themselves.

Gina Carano vs. Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos

The Breakdown: After years spent relegated to fringe Japanese promotions and local barnhouse shows, women’s MMA finally gets a chance to win over the mainstream crowd with its first stateside superfight. Cover girl Gina Carano will finally take on “Cyborg” Santos in the fight that fans of the nascent division have been begging for. If you’re the type who gets freaked out by ladies hitting each other, turn away because both Santos and Carano have built their names on striking skills that have left the rest of the 145-pound division kowtowing to their dominance.

Who emerges as the alpha female on the feet is what this fight hinges on. Carano uses a precise, varied striking style that overwhelms opponents while Santos is a pure brawler with the power to turn the lights out on just about any featherweight, male or female. If Carano can use her movement and accuracy to frustrate Santos, she has the inside track on the win, but that means surviving a full-blown onslaught from the brutal Brazilian bomber. That is a feat no one has managed thus far.

The X Factor: The most underrated aspect of Carano’s game is her jiu-jitsu, which has been a literal lifesaver on more than one occasion for the undefeated champion. While the lone loss on Santos’ ledger came via submission, that was in her MMA debut. Regardless, Carano has to keep the mat in mind as her escape route if Santos starts turning her face into a scale model of a Jackson Pollack. For Santos, she still has to prove her jiu-jitsu is not the liability it once was.

* * *

The Bottom line: It’s no secret that Strikeforce and the now deceased EliteXC protected Carano while building her into a star, but those days are thankfully over as Santos is one of the most dangerous female fighters at any weight. That will become apparent early on, as Santos savors the opportunity long denied to her by blitzing Carano and scoring a knockout that will announce her as the division’s new matriarch.

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Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com

Jay Hieron

Jay Hieron vs. Jesse Taylor

The Breakdown: This is a bout that no one expected. Hieron and Taylor step in on short notice to replace the chronically injured Joe Riggs and the chronically chronic-ed Nick Diaz. Short notice is the ultimate variable but Taylor is an inexperienced, developing fighter while Hieron is a savvy veteran with the right style to frustrate any neophyte looking to make a name at his expense. A balanced fighter with a strong wrestling pedigree, Hieron’s wrestling game should be enough to keep Taylor from working the top-control game he depends on almost exclusively in the cage.

With his best offensive option nullified, Taylor will either have to prove his striking is up to snuff or try to make a miracle happen from his guard. Hunting for miracles in a fight doesn’t exactly count as sound strategy, and unless Taylor has something new to show off, a miracle in the cage to match the miracle on ice is looking less and less likely.

The X Factor: One thing Hieron has always struggled with is working off his back. While Taylor is still adapting his wrestling to the cage, he is a massive welterweight and can bully his way to takedowns when his skill comes up short. If the wrestling swings in Taylor’s favor at any point, he may not need more than a brief window to turn Hieron into the star of his highlight reel. Whether or not Taylor actually has the offensive firepower to take advantage of that scenario is what he’ll have to prove to both himself and everyone else.

* * *

The Bottom Line: The short notice nature of this bout will become obvious early on as Hieron dismantles a clearly unprepared and inexperienced Taylor. The end will come violently when Hieron leaves Taylor’s guard in shambles and initiates a ground-and-pound siege that will eventually force a referee stoppage.

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Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Gilbert Melendez

Gilbert Melendez vs. Mitsuhiro Ishida

The Breakdown: After losing the chance to avenge a loss to Josh Thomson and regain the Strikeforce lightweight strap, Melendez will have to settle for a chance to take up the interim title and avenge a loss to the first man to beat him, Mitsuhiro Ishida. The style clash remains the same between these two. Ishida’s superior wrestling and relentless onrush make him a tough match for Melendez, who doesn’t have the dominating striking or airtight takedown defense to force Ishida off his game.

Unless Melendez has something new to offer, a repeat of the takedown festival Ishida put on against him the first time around is looking more and more likely. Of course, you can’t discount Melendez, who innovated both the Death Valley driver takedown and hula-hoop defense. For all I know, Melendez is saving something even more absurd for this fight like the Van Damme splits or Chuck Norris chest hair of doom.

The X Factor: Ishida’s compact frame makes him virtually unstoppable on the mat. His short limbs are nearly impossible to get a hold of and his base is rock solid, but his dominance on the ground is matched only by his ineptitude on the feet. Those short limbs are a major liability when you’re trying to throw a counterpunch as Takanori Gomi so ruthlessly proved when he scored a vicious first round TKO over his countryman. Melendez is no Gomi, but if he can force Ishida to strike with him, he won’t need to match Gomi’s fistic firepower to turn this fight on its head.

* * *

The Bottom Line: For the most part, Melendez is at his best when he can control opponents with his wrestling and he’s at his worst when he can’t. That will play heavily into the decision loss that’s awaiting him against Ishida, who will score takedown after takedown en route to a lopsided, albeit nap-inducing, judges’ nod. Let’s be real here: Only Chuck Norris can contain the awesomeness of the chest beard.

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Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Gegard Mousasi

Renato “Babalu” Sobral vs. Gegard Mousasi

The Breakdown: One of several bouts resurrected from the corpse of Affliction, one-time top UFC contender “Babalu” Sobral will take on multi-division ace Gegard Mousasi for the Strikeforce light heavyweight title. While Mousasi’s game has always been striking-centric with occasional flashes of submission savvy, Sobral is a pure mat fighter with the troubling habit of getting into exchanges on the feet that he can’t win. The issue here is whether or not Mousasi, a regular middleweight contender, will have the firepower to back down Sobral and the takedown defense to keep this fight upright.

Just as important will be Mousasi’s ability to survive on the mat should Sobral force him there. Sobral’s taxing top control and serpentine submissions combined with his likely strength advantage make for a dicey proposition. If Mousasi is as serious as he says he is about jumping all over the divisional map, this is the fight he needs to prove that he can be the pound-for-pound juggernaut he thinks he already is. By the same token, Sobral has been a name fighter for years, and his time to carve out a legacy is running thin.

The X Factor: Every time I see Sobral, I immediately wonder if he’s going to run headfirst into the first KO punch he sees. For such a skilled fighter, he consistently makes the mistake of sacrificing brain cells in the name of bravado. I doubt Mousasi can out-grapple Sobral, but he can definitely kick and/or punch his face in. Whether or not he does depends just as much on Sobral as it does on Mousasi.

* * *

The Bottom Line: As a middleweight, Mousasi has the potential to be an elite fighter, but that 20-pound leap to light heavyweight can claim the career of anyone not named Anderson Silva. It would be one thing if Mousasi was starting off against someone whom he can pick apart, but Sobral is going to plant Mousasi on his back and prove he can survive against the army of titans populating the light heavyweight class. Expect Mousasi to keep this fight interesting with his kickboxing and slippery mat game, but that will only keep him going long enough to hear the decision go to Sobral.

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Jim Page/Sherdog.com

Fabricio Werdum

Mike Kyle vs. Fabricio Werdum

The Bottom Line: Two of the heavyweight division’s most talented yet mercurial fighters square off here with Werdum and Kyle both looking to get their names entered into the Fedor Emelianenko sweepstakes. Unfortunately for Kyle, his brawling style doesn’t feature the takedown defense or jiu-jitsu credentials needed to keep Werdum from turning him into a heap of twisted limbs. It’s certainly no secret that Werdum has gotten himself in trouble on the feet before — just ask Junior dos Santos — but Kyle consistently makes the mistake of bull-rushing his opponents, which plays right into Werdum’s hands.

Even if Werdum can’t score a speedy takedown, his clinch game is far more refined than Kyle’s, who often resorts to spastic flailing and ineffective knees when he can’t break out of the clinch with strength alone. Barring another face-first leap into his opponent’s fists, Werdum should be able to rough up Kyle in the clinch before moving to the mat and finishing the fight.

Mike Cook vs. Scott Lighty

The Bottom Line: One of Strikeforce’s more promising prospects, Lighty puts his undefeated ledger on the line against the man Strikeforce is hoping plays the showcase role to a tee, Mike Cook. Strikeforce executives can breathe easy as Lighty may not be some ceiling-busting blue-chipper, but Cook is basically a canvas for any young prospect looking to paint a picture of his own potential. Expect Cook to do as he usually does and charge in headfirst before Lighty responds by wrestling him down to the mat.

From there, it won’t take long for Lighty to pound out a TKO stoppage against the overmatched Cook. Here’s hoping Lighty’s management team has the good sense to keep him on the prelims for the foreseeable future so their boy has a chance to develop properly before jumping into the deep end of the increasingly dangerous Strikeforce heavyweight division.

David Douglas vs. Justin Wilcox

The Bottom Line: A battle of up-and-comers pits Douglas and Wilcox, both of whom are looking to carve out a spot in the still nascent Strikeforce hierarchy. Both fighters have suffered from being pitted against competition out of their league, but this time around you can expect a wild back-and-forth between two evenly matched fighters. While Wilcox has seen more top-tier competition, Douglas’ rabid style and endless gas tank make him tough to corral.

While Wilcox has the balanced game to keep Douglas from getting too comfortable, it won’t be enough to keep him from dropping a nip-tuck decision. Expect a case of too much top control and ground-and-pound from Douglas and too little time to answer back for Wilcox.

Zak Bucia vs. James Terry

The Bottom Line: A rematch of their first battle earlier this year on the “Shamrock vs. Diaz” card, Bucia will try to even the score against Terry, who is one of the promotion’s best welterweight prospects. That status will be on the line against Bucia, who will look to shut down Terry’s diverse and unpredictable style that’s likely the product of training with san shou wizard Cung Le. While Bucia had some success the first time around, Terry is still the better fighter and has more options in the cage.

It may not be any easier this time, but Terry will gradually outpoint Bucia en route to another solid decision win. Of course, I’m hoping he busts out a triple spin ninja kick in honor of his mentor.

Isaiah Hill vs. Alexander Trevino

The Bottom Line: Let’s not mince words on this one, Trevino is an intriguing lightweight prospect with a surprisingly well-rounded skill set while Hill hasn’t won a fight in more than two years. You have to go back an extra year to find the last time Hill won two fights in a row. In other words, just about the only things Hill has on Trevino are experience and losses.

This is a pure showcase fight for Trevino, who will quickly turn Hill’s face into a post-modern art project. Sooner or later, the referee’s sense of compassion will kick in and Trevino will walk away with a one-sided TKO win while Hill keeps closing in on the Mendoza line.