The Future of Fighting Blog

Georges St. Pierre Photo: Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

It’s a fine time of year, as spring promises an end to weekly blizzards and the UFC is in the midst of a full-on binge that means almost endless MMA for all. The latest offering is UFC 111 “St. Pierre vs. Hardy,” which airs Saturday on pay-per-view from the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.After a lifetime spent as the second-class citizens of MMA, the Northeast is finally getting a major league UFC show and it’s headlined by pound-for-pound poster boyGeorges St. Pierre defending his welterweight strap against British trashtalker/face-smasher Dan Hardy.Rounding out the main card is an interim heavyweight title bout starring Frank Mir’s bionic body and Shane Carwin’s sun-blocking body as well as a trio of quality bouts set to bring the violence.So get your reading glasses, brew up a fresh pot of coffee and grab your illest cardigan for another round of manly prognostication and analysis.Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan HardyThe Breakdown: After snuffing out the title aspirations of everyone from Thiago Alvesto Jon Fitch, incumbent monarch Georges St. Pierre is starting to make the wildly competitive welterweight landscape look more like a post-apocalyptic dystopia. Perhaps then no one is as qualified to take him on as Dan Hardy, a pinpoint kill-shot artist who looks like he just stepped off the set of “Mad Max.”Escaping the fate of past challengers is a relatively straightforward proposition for Hardy: He must find a way to stuff the light speed takedowns of St. Pierre. While Hardy certainly exceeded expectations by shutting down Mike Swick’s wrestling in their bout at UFC 105, St. Pierre exists in a different dimension wrestling-wise than the rest of the division.Considering the guard game has never been a pillar of Hardy’s style, he’s going to have to rely on maximizing whatever time he gets on the feet. Expecting the Canadian quicksilver to simply oblige his desire for a kickboxing match is dicey at best, and Hardy just doesn’t have the caliber of takedown defense to thwart a mat battle.On the mat St. Pierre has shown solid, accurate ground-and-pound as well as vastly underrated grappling acumen. Meanwhile Hardy struggled with the takedowns and grappling of Marcus Davis, a converted boxer, at UFC 99. Struggling with Davis, a solid gatekeeper, is about as good an omen of success for Hardy as a murder of crows falling dead from the sky every time he starts training.Even assuming success on the feet for Hardy severely underestimates St. Pierre’s ability, as he has more than held his own standing with the likes of leg kick connoisseurThiago Alves and the oil slick boxing of B.J. Penn. Much like St. Pierre’s past challengers, Hardy should feel proud that he earned a title shot and be ready to understand why “Rush” is one of the greatest fighters this generation has ever seen.The Bottom Line: Hardy is going to be an entertaining presence in the welterweight division for a long time. A potential bout with his equally truculent rival Josh Koscheckdown the road would make for one of the most epic displays of pre-fight vitriol in modern times. With that said, St. Pierre is like refined King Cobra venom to one-dimensional strikers like Hardy.It would be far from unbelievable if Hardy starched St. Pierre, though. Opponents suicidal enough to throw down with Hardy are putting their short-term health at risk. However, St. Pierre is becoming a more and more cerebral athlete, which is a terrifying trend for both Hardy and anyone else banking on goading St. Pierre into a low-rent brawl. A dominating performance for St. Pierre reaches its inevitable conclusion with an overdue tapout from Hardy in the third round.

Shane Carwin Photo: Isaac Hinds/Sherdog.com

Frank Mir vs. Shane CarwinThe Breakdown: Thanks to Brock Lesnar’s swiss cheese intestinal tract, top heavyweight contenders Shane Carwin and Frank Mir will contest for the interim heavyweight title with the winner going on to challenge Lesnar for supremacy in the resurgent heavyweight division. For two fighters on the cusp of supremacy, the questions are overwhelming. Mir’s track record of injuries and inconsistency haunt him to this day while Carwin has never fought past the three-minute mark of a professional bout.On paper it’s an impressive statistic, but it ignores the fact that Carwin has precious little live cage time and came awfully close to getting steamrolled by Gabriel Gonzagaat UFC 96. Green fighters heading into title bouts don’t have the greatest history. However, Carwin’s combination of bulldozing wrestling and awe-inspiring punching power both on the feet and mat make him a major style problem for Mir.Throughout his career Mir has struggled against heavy hitters, particularly ones capable of smothering his submissions with skull-scrambling ground-and-pound. Carwin hits like an express train. If Mir gets spooked by his power, he’ll start making the same kinds of mistakes that tripped him up in all of his professional losses.The trade-off here is that Carwin’s submission defense is completely unproven, and his boxing consists almost entirely of throwing really hard and hoping for the best. Mir has made significant strides in his striking over the years. While stout ground-and-pound remains his Achilles heel, he can still tap Carwin with the quickness if the ginormous Colorado native can’t handle a hyperactive guard.The Bottom Line: This is one of the most evenly matched heavyweight bouts in some time on paper, but odds are it won’t last terribly long. Carwin’s unproven submission defense and Mir’s obvious distaste for punishment are combustible flaws that will cost one of them dearly come fight time. Bank on Mir’s superior technique on the feet to give Carwin fits before an ill-advised takedown lands Carwin in a fight-ending submission.

Jim Miller Photo: Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Jim Miller vs. Mark BocekThe Breakdown: Perhaps the most underappreciated lightweight around, Jim Miller, gets a chance to shine on the main card, but he’ll have to do it against Canadian grappling guru Mark Bocek. While both fighters have amassed solid Octagon records, their biggest opportunities in the UFC have uniformly ended in defeat.The trend seems set to end for Miller. His whole game is kryptonite to Bocek, who wants nothing more than to work his vaunted Brazilian jiu-jitsu from top control. That’s unlikely against Miller, who is not only the superior wrestler but also a surprisingly talented striker as he showed in his dissection of Duane Ludwig at UFC 108.Bocek struggles mightily when he can’t impose his one-dimensional style on opponents. His iffy conditioning is only exacerbated when he has to struggle for takedowns. Miller is accustomed to facing quality grapplers and has shown a tremendous aptitude for not only avoiding submissions but advancing position and forcing opponents on the defensive. Playing defense is not something Bocek wants to do if he has any intention of escaping the prospect of a pink slip.The Bottom Line: This just isn’t the kind of matchup Bocek can win, and it’ll show early as Miller scores takedown after takedown while handily winning the striking exchanges. Opportunities will be few and far between for Bocek. Miller will build up an insurmountable lead on the scorecards and maintain control every step of the way en route to a unanimous decision nod.

Kurt Pellegrino (Top) Photo: Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Kurt Pellegrino vs. Fabricio CamoesThe Breakdown: After botching his UFC debut against Caol Uno at UFC 106 thanks to a point deduction and a late gas out, the road is starting to look like a Cormac McCarthy novel for Fabricio Camoes. He now has to take on veteran contender Kurt Pellegrino. A winner of three straight Octagon bouts, Pellegrino is inching his way back to title contention, but a loss to Camoes would land him right back in his old position of resident gatekeeper.That means sticking to the usual strategy of ground-and-pound mixed in with jiu-jitsu savvy, but Camoes showed stout takedown defense in his bout with Uno. Further complicating matters is Camoes’ surprisingly accurate albeit sloppy striking, which could give Pellegrino problems if his takedowns fail him.The problem here for Camoes is that he’s not going to finish Pellegrino with striking alone, and tapping him out seems just as unlikely. The longer this bout wears on, the more it favors Pellegrino’s experience and conditioning. Considering Camoes has yet to show a particularly astute guard at this level, he’ll be in for more bad luck if he doesn’t show up with a bigger gas tank.The Bottom Line: This just isn’t the right fight for a developing fighter like Camoes. Pellegrino isn’t going to stand and trade with him or give him any openings to work with on the mat. The pressure of constantly defending takedowns is going to wear on Camoes as well, and three rounds of frustration will end with him losing a unanimous decision.

Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Jon Fitch vs. Ben SaundersThe Breakdown: “Brain irregularity” is probably the most terrifying combination of two words in the English language, so it was with good reason that Thiago Alves was a late scratch for his rematch with Fitch. Stepping up to take his place is fellow American Top Team disciple Ben Saunders, who was supposed to fight Jake Ellenberger before he filled the void left by his teammate’s health issues.Why Saunders would take this fight remains anyone’s guess. He’s still a developing fighter, and a mega-wrestler like Fitch looks like a hemlock for his style. A rangy striker with face-shredding clinch skills, Saunders still has not developed proper takedown defense, and his guard lacks the technical polish to maximize the natural advantages his long limbs give him. Saunders is the superior striker, but Fitch takes a no-nonsense approach into the cage and will not hand Saunders any opportunities on the feet.There are plenty of good fights in the welterweight division for young fighters. Fitch, however, is not one of them, as his style is built around completely neutralizing his opponent. Considering Saunders’ reliance on working his kicks and knees, he’s going to have to maximize every second he gets on the feet because, odds are, those seconds will be few and far between.

Friday, March 19, 2010
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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The UFC makes its debut on the Versus network Sunday with the kind of fight card that would normally leave a Ulysses S. Grant-sized dent in our wallets.

Hitting our optic nerves live from the 1stBank Center in Broomfield, Colo., the card is headlined by a light heavyweight bout starring Jon Jones and Brandon Vera that could be the launching pad for the next big thing at 205 pounds. Joining that quality chunk of violence is a heavyweight dust-up pitting rising star Junior dos Santos against the mega-hairy and mega-talented Gabriel Gonzaga.

All that and plenty more, so get down with another round of grown man prognostication served up with a side of pop-culture digression.

Brandon Vera vs. Jon Jones

The Breakdown: The light heavyweight division’s ongoing generational mutation continues with New York-born wunderkind Jon Jones taking on the 32-year-old perpetual prospect Brandon Vera for a shot to join the new guard of the 205-pound class. Both men enter this fight in the unique position of coming off impressive losses, if such things exist.

Jones practically bench-pressed Matt Hamill all over the Octagon at “The Ultimate Finale 10” before being disqualified thanks to a preposterous rule against downward elbow strikes. Vera, on the other hand, managed to lose a decision to Randy Couture at UFC 105 despite turning Couture’s insides to mush. While Jones’ loss is a write-off, Vera lost his fight with Couture due to backwoods-caliber judging and also due to his own passivity in a sport that demands the aggression of a Polar Bear with chainsaws for paws.

In his first fight since joining the Tri-Star Gym, Jones outclassed Hamill. Aggression alone won’t beat Vera, but Jones has the wrestling to ground anything on two legs. And while Jones’ striking lacks the technical sheen apparent in Vera’s game, his timing and reach make it incredibly difficult to figure him out.

Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Fans might have expectations of Vera whipping off femur-smashing leg kicks and Jones’ hitting triple spinning back elbow combinations. The fact is, however, that this fight comes down to Jones’ wrestling and Vera’s ability, or lack thereof, to stay upright. It’s troubling how Vera simply allowed himself to get tied up in the clinch and seemed to have no escape plan against Couture. The same lack of strategy doomed him in bouts with Tim Sylvia and Keith Jardine, where his passivity and lack of in-fight adaptation only made matters worse.

Spend three rounds in the clinch with Jones and you’re going to land on your butt sooner or later. Considering the grown-man ground-and-pound Jones showed in his last bout, Vera’s solid grappling background and takedown defense just aren’t going to cut it. Whenever Vera has had to either defend quality takedowns or work off his back, his work-rate hits the floor faster than the NASDAQ. That is something he simply can’t afford against Jones.

The Bottom Line: Vera could certainly punish Jones’ legs given the opportunity, but Jones isn’t going to stand in front of him and turn this fight into a muay Thai seminar. It takes a certain taste for adversity to thrive inside the cage, and Vera doesn’t have it when it comes to stuffing takedowns and working the guard. The outcome will be another impressive “W” via unanimous decision for Jones.

Junior dos Santos (Above Top): Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Junior dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

The Breakdown: After enduring year after year of a heavyweight division stuck neck-deep in the mud of mediocrity, the long awaited new blood has finally arrived. Among its leaders is Team Black House uppercut machine Junior dos Santos. Not too long ago Gabriel Gonzaga was considered part of the heavyweight resurgence as well, but ever since knocking Mirko Filipovic into another dimension at UFC 70, the furry Brazilian’s most significant Octagon moment was robbing Chris Tuchscherer of his short-term reproductive capabilities at UFC 102.

All would be forgiven with a win over dos Santos, but first Gonzaga needs to ditch the misguided notion that he’s a world-class striker. While “Napao” certainly has the striking to cluster bomb the Josh Hendricks of the world, his bout with Shane Carwin at UFC 96 revealed a fighter who has lost touch with his grappling roots.

In a division populated by men who look like they were bred in military research facilities, it makes little sense to forgo years of Brazilian jiu-jitsu training in favor of powerful but unrefined striking. Practically every world-class heavyweight is capable of knocking out a small country. In dos Santos’ case, he actually has some technical skill backing up his power and hand-speed, which makes him unique in a division full of cookie-cutter brawlers. The difference in movement alone is massive, as Gonzaga tends to lumber about the cage while dos Santos has shown a surprisingly solid understanding of how to use his movement to create openings and evade strikes.

Subtle differences like movement and stringing together punches intelligently easily overcome Gonzaga’s size and strength advantage. What dos Santos might not be able to overcome is Gonzaga’s grappling. Early in his career, dos Santos looked like an easy mark on the mat, and Gonzaga can still tap fools out in his sleep. The question is if dos Santos has improved enough on the mat to escape back to his feet and, more importantly, if Gonzaga will have the good sense to even go for a takedown.

The variable that no one seems to be talking about, however, is Gonzaga’s conditioning. After some rigorous scientific research, I’ve determined that Gonzaga doesn’t gas out but that he is actually composed of gases that rapidly dissipate when exposed to physically rigorous activity. Consider that dos Santos has the tank to go 15 hard minutes while Gonzaga can barely go a hard five, and that is what should be weighing heavily on the mind of anyone hoping that dos Santos doesn’t take Gonzaga’s pelt as a prize.

The Bottom Line: If you assume sound mind and body for Gonzaga, this is an easy fight to pick: Gonzaga will bull dos Santos down and beat him. Assuming anything in the context of a fistfight is never a good idea, though, and odds are Gonzaga will try his hand at lopping dos Santos’ head off. All it will get him is a pair of lungs desperate for oxygen and a decision loss as dos Santos overcomes some early headaches to just barely eke out a decision win.

Cheick Kongo (Above Right): Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Cheick Kongo vs. Paul Buentello

The Breakdown: Because no card is complete without a couple of heavyweights trying to crack each other’s skull open, the UFC is sending out Cheick Kongo and Paul Buentello to put on a proper George Romero tribute. While Mike Goldberg will undoubtedly waste many a breath getting you to believe that this fight is of incalculable importance, the fact is that the UFC matchmaking department knows that a good ole’ heavyweight brawl draws fans.

Buentello has made a living out of winning brawls, but he’s 36 now and has nearly 40 professional fights to his name. In his last fight, at UFC 107 against Stefan Struve, he lost a majority decision despite spending most of the bout on his feet against a fighter known more for his wildly aggressive guard than anything else.

Considering it was Struve’s reach that really frustrated Buentello, the idea of him fighting Kongo starts to enter flat-out unfair territory. At this point Kongo will never develop into a title worthy fighter, but he is a menacing gatekeeper and his striking is simply in a different league than most anyone in the division. Rangy, accurate, powerful and quick are not words commonly used to describe the striking of any heavyweight, but amidst a sea of one-note brawlers, Kongo stands out like the Pope at a Christopher Hitchens reading.

It’s hardly a secret that Buentello makes his living off a powerful straight right. Kongo’s straight right is even better, though, and he has the leg kicks and clinch game to force Buentello out of his comfort zone. The other migraine in the making for Buentello is Kongo’s ground-and-pound. Takedown defense has never been Buentello’s forte, and Kongo is quite adept at changing levels off his strikes, which disguises his fundamentally subpar wrestling quite well. One way or another, Buentello is going to be outmatched, which leaves him hoping to land a straight right kill-shot on a guy who has a laundry list of ways of doing the same.

The Bottom Line: A few lopsided exchanges will open the way for Kongo to close the pocket and work the clinch before forcing a TKO stoppage on the mat.

Alessio Sakara (Above): Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Alessio Sakara vs. James Irvin

The Breakdown: Someone is getting starched like a cheap shirt in this one. Considering that James Irvin looked downright dehydrated as a light heavyweight, I’m guessing he’ll have to be wheeled out to the cage for his middleweight debut. Subjecting yourself to an incredibly rigorous weight cut only makes sense if it makes you a better fighter by being more physically dominant, but Irvin’s problems have always been his one-dimensional striking style and weak chin. Cutting weight addresses neither.

Sakara has some serious advantages over Irvin considering he’s added solid kicks and knees to complement his well-known and rightly feared boxing. Irvin counters with a whole army of fast-twitch muscle fibers augmenting every strike he throws, which makes him more than capable of knocking out Sakara, who also suffers from a weak chin. Of course Irvin is capable of knocking out just about anyone, but it’s also the only thing he really knows how to do, making him surprisingly predictable inside the cage.

Sakara is at least capable of mixing it up and using decent fundamentals to keep himself from getting poleaxed on the regular. Then again, Sakara often loses track of himself and gets into wild exchanges like the one that cost him his middleweight debut against Chris Leben at UFC 82. In that bout Sakara was bullied around by Leben’s brutish style. He has to avoid that same fate against Irvin, who thrives on blitzing like the mutant offspring of Deacon Jones.

Striking in modern MMA often comes down to skill against talent, and the ever-present variable of four-ounce gloves makes the clash unpredictable since it’s a lot easier to luck into talent than cultivate skill. The classic clash continues in this fight, and here’s hoping it ends with something other than a couple of guys with anti-chins flailing about.

The Bottom Line: A pure coin flip of a fight. Sakara is every bit as likely to pick apart Irvin as he is to end up laid out. Go with Sakara to survive a wild opening minute and eventually wear down and knock out Irvin with a hellacious punching combo.

Sunday, January 10, 2010
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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Everyone hates Mondays — the first day of the work week and the last day of the week anyone wants to be bothered. Thankfully, the fine folks at Zuffa LLC have scheduled a suitable chaser with UFC Fight Night 20 this Monday at the Patriot Center in Fairfax, Va. The world-ranked Gray Maynard serves as the obvious draw, as he puts his undefeated record and lightweight title aspirations on the line against Nate Diaz.

The latest chapter in the Mexico-Oregon war, the possibility of watching the new “Just Bleed Guy” bleed and the return of the world’s toughest surgical technologist rounds out our daily intake of vitamin violence. All in all, we have plenty of reasons to save our postal episode for next Monday.

Gray Maynard vs. Nate Diaz

The Breakdown: Thanks to B.J. Penn’s ongoing curb-stomping of the lightweight division, Maynard could become the next challenger to the Hawaiian’s crown if he can keep his airways and limbs intact against Diaz. For the younger Diaz brother, this fight represents a chance at redemption after his 2009 campaign was hamstrung by losses to Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida.

In both of those fights, Diaz’s stellar submission skills were negated by his non-existent wrestling. Perhaps just as troubling, his striking lacks accuracy and generally looks like slightly accelerated tai chi. Contrast that with Maynard, a suffocating wrestler who will hold a significant advantage in both hand speed and punching power. As usual, Diaz has to hope his spider web of a jiu-jitsu game wins out, but that strategy means he will have to deal with Maynard giving him the little brother treatment every step of the way.

With less than 10 fights under his belt, Maynard’s surprising discipline really tips this match in his favor. It may not win him many fans, but he avoids mistakes on the mat by staying conservative with his ground-and-pound and maintaining control of his own posture, neither of which will give Diaz the opportunity to create the scrambles in which he has proven so effective. As long as Maynard sticks to his modus operandi, it will take nothing short of a mid-fight seizure for Diaz to find the openings “The Bully” keeps bolted shut.

The X-Factor: The physical and tactical advantages all seem to be lined up in Maynard’s favor, but the fact remains that Diaz tapped out an inexperienced incarnation of Maynard on Season 5 of “The Ultimate Fighter.” He has a psychological advantage, and while Maynard will undoubtedly be focused on revenge, a part of him knows even a microscopic error could end in disaster. Since that off-the-books loss, Maynard has not faced a truly great guard player; that lack of experience only makes this fight more compelling. Shutting down Roger Huerta’s guard is a far cry from trying the ultimate nullifier routine on Diaz.

The Bottom Line: Submitting Maynard may be Diaz’s only hope, but Guida already laid out the wrestler’s game plan for defeating the Stockton, Calif., native, and one can rest assured the cerebral Xtreme Couture Mixed Martial Arts camp has made that fight regular viewing. Odds are onlookers will be feeling a sense of déjà vu throughout the fight, as Maynard controls position and pace en route to a predictably bland unanimous decision win.

D. Mandel/Sherdog.com

Efrain Escudero vs. Evan Dunham

The Breakdown: The long simmering rivalry between Oregon and Mexico comes to a head when Dunham and Escudero match wits and fists in a fight that could determine the next lightweight golden boy. While the rivalry between Oregon and Mexico may be overstated, a win for either fighter spells a prominent spot in a division starving for contenders.

Although both men first developed notoriety for their grappling, Escudero’s windmill power punches and Dunham’s surprisingly astute counterpunching have distinguished them from the sea of quality grapplers already on the scene. Dunham’s down-the-pipe punching style will be frustrating for “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 8 winner, but his habit of dropping his hands only makes the prospect of Escudero serving him the chin check special all the more likely. The thought of watching Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em robots redux makes this fight more than just a jiu-jitsu special, but odds are someone will take this fight to the mat when the exchanges start turning into a full-scale recreation of the Battle of Helm’s Deep. Although Dunham’s physical strength and excellent balance greatly improve his unrefined wrestling, his upright stance will make him a prime target for Escudero’s takedowns.

Considering both fighters work best from top control, the man forced to work off his back will be at a distinct disadvantage. Unless Dunham can control distance with his punches and get his sprawl deep enough on Escudero’s shots, he will find his combinations interrupted by an unwelcome trip to the canvas.

The X-Factor: Easy as it was to be impressed by Escudero’s vulgar display of power on Cole Miller’s chin at UFC 103, shooting from the hip against a counterpuncher will only result in a face full of fist. Time and time again, Marcus Aurelio tried to land overhand bombs on Dunham at UFC 102, and he ended up on the wrong end of his left hand counter. More importantly, Dunham’s ability to consistently land punches forced Aurelio to try for takedowns from outside the pocket, which gave the unbeaten Oregonian the precious split second he needed to sprawl. If Escudero cannot find a way to collapse the pocket, this fight will turn into a Sisyphean task in short order.

The Bottom Line: One certainty exists in this fight; it will be more fun to watch than an episode of “Steven Seagal: Lawman” — just about the highest praise one can give to any form of entertainment. Early on, the fight will favor Dunham as he gets the better of the exchanges, but once Escudero starts measuring his punches and segueing into takedowns, he will take control and never relinquish it. This “Fight of the Night” winner ends with Escudero taking a decision.

D. Mandel/Sherdog.com

Tom Lawlor vs. Aaron Simpson

The Breakdown: Perhaps best known for his imitation of the infamous “Just Bleed Guy” and his decision to enter the cage to “Who Let the Dogs Out?” it has become obvious that Lawlor went to the school of ironic self-promotion. All the chunky chain necklaces and preposterous haircuts in the world, however, will not help him against the berserker barrage of Simpson, best known for turning human beings into road kill in the cage.

Lawlor needs to fight fire with fire by using his wrestling to keep Simpson from working the frantic pace he utilizes to overwhelm opponents. Therein rests the rub, as Simpson’s own wrestling pedigree and comic bookish combination of speed and strength have made it virtually impossible for anyone to slow him down.

Though Lawlor has proven a solid wrestler in his own right, he remains far from world-class and lacks the physical talent necessary to keep Simpson under control. With takedowns virtually out of the question, he will be forced into exchanges where survival will be just as unlikely as success.

The X-Factor: For a guy who seems to live in a parallel dimension, Lawlor has turned into a truly well-rounded fighter, and his talent for submissions has become something to keep an eye on. C.B. Dollaway learned that lesson at UFC 100 when a sloppy shot landed him in a fight-ending guillotine choke. Simpson’s own relentless style makes him prone to the sort of over-aggressiveness that has short-circuited many a prospect.

The Bottom Line: Until Simpson faces the next tier of UFC competition, he will keep going Honey Badger on anyone unfortunate enough to cross his path. Lawlor will be no exception, as Simpson flat-out stomps him midway through the first round with a ground-and-pound flurry that answers once and for all who let the dogs out.

D. Mandel/Sherdog.com

Amir Sadollah vs. Brad Blackburn

The Breakdown: The other main card bout featuring a winner from “The Ultimate Fighter” has an altogether different flavor, with Sadollah still trying to find his footing in the Octagon. Meanwhile, Blackburn has put together a 3-0 run that has him knocking on the door of contention. Beating Blackburn would go a long way towards erasing the memory of Sadollah’s knockout loss to Johny Hendricks at UFC 101, but the style clash again does not fall in his favor.

Blackburn has been criminally underappreciated, as his combination of disciplined boxing, accurate leg kicks and veteran savvy give him all the tools to frustrate Sadollah, a man at his best when he can control opponents in close quarters. Movement and a steady jab with power behind it are public enemies number one and two for Sadollah, and Blackburn has both in excess.

While Sadollah has shown enough talent on the mat to have a suitable Plan B, he lacks the takedowns to get Blackburn horizontal, and his jiu-jitsu remains in its nascent stages. Even if Sadollah can lock down the Thai clinch on the International Fight League veteran, Phil Baroni had some early success sneaking in punches and swimming free, something Blackburn will be more than capable of replicating. Either way, if Sadollah tries to fight from up close, he still has to worry about whether his chin can hold up as long as Blackburn’s.

The X-Factor: Work rate and conditioning are Sadollah’s best assets, as he proved in his bout with Baroni. If his chin can handle Blackburn’s power, they will be his saving graces. Relying on one’s chin against a talented puncher has always been a bad bet, but as long as Sadollah hangs in there and wears down Blackburn enough to take the edge off his game, he has a real shot at scoring what should be seen as an upset.

The Bottom Line: This should be another fun fight. Blackburn will undoubtedly look to drop some “Mortal Kombat”-style combinations, while Sadollah answers with his arsenal of muay Thai techniques. The difference maker will be Blackburn’s power, a factor Sadollah cannot match or overcome with sheer volume. A certifiably insane fight ends with Sadollah looking like a crash test dummy after Blackburn puts out his lights with a right hand in the third round.

D. Mandel/Sherdog.com

Chris Leben vs. Jay Silva

Leben may have the big name, but Silva has the hype. He showed a solid skill set in his loss to C.B. Dollaway and seems to only need experience in order to develop into something special. Look for Leben to be the man on whom Silva builds his reputation, as Leben’s increasingly predictable brawling techniques will be a poor match for Silva’s flashy yet undeniably effective striking arsenal. More importantly, Leben’s notoriously tiny gas tank has betrayed him several times before, and it will happen again if he cannot starch Silva early. Watch for a competitive fight to turn in Silva’s favor once Leben starts gasping for whatever oxygen his lungs can suck in.

Rick Story vs. Jesse Lennox

Sometimes, a fight just makes perfect sense. Consider this one a fine example. Story and Lennox work torrid paces and will maintain the tempo anywhere the fight goes. Lennox’s submission defense has looked vulnerable before, and Story jumps on submission openings like a zombie to brains. Lennox may be far from a free takedown, but Story has proven the smoother striker and does an excellent job of setting up his takedowns with strikes. A buck fight turns in Story’s favor midway through the second round, as he rocks Lennox on the feet and seamlessly transitions into a guillotine choke for the finish.

Thiago Tavares vs. Nik Lentz

After a successful UFC debut, Lentz heads into the far end of the ocean against Tavares, a man who was basically tailor-made to beat him. Ideally, Lentz would use his wrestling to mix it up between striking and ground-and-pound, but Tavares is a talented wrestler and striker, along with being one of the division’s better submission artists. This will serve as a stern reminder for Lentz on what it takes to make the cut in the Octagon, as Tavares will simply outclass him in every area of the game. An increasingly mismatched fight comes to a long overdue end with Tavares cinching an almost merciful rear-naked choke in the second round.

Michael Guymon vs. Rory MacDonald

Already one of Canada’s most heralded prospects, MacDonald makes his long-awaited UFC debut against Guymon, the longtime King of the Cage standard bearer. A true study in versatility, MacDonald has proven surprisingly slick for a relative rookie, and his dominating top game will be poison to Guymon. Struggles follow Guymon whenever smooth grapplers force him to work off his back, and MacDonald fits that archetype to a T. A brilliant introduction to the world at large awaits MacDonald, as he puts the exclamation point on his evening with a beautiful armbar transition from mount late in the first round.

Kyle Bradley vs. Rafael dos Anjos

One of the more lopsided matches of the night pits Bradley against Dos Anjos, who looks a lot like a younger version of the guy from those Dos Equis commercials. Simply put, Bradley does not have much to offer Dos Anjos beyond pure physical ability, which will not help him much once the disparity in technical acumen comes into play. Dos Anjos’ whole style seems to cancel out anything his opponents do, as his versatility and composure make for a frustrating combination. It may not be the most interesting fight in the world, but Dos Anjos will stay thirsty via unanimous decision.

Gerald Harris vs. John Salter

His return long overdue, Harris will get a chance to make it memorable one at Salter’s expense. Let us not tell any lies; Salter, a sacrificial lamb, is severely overmatched. Watch any of Harris’ fights, and you can see a dynamic fighter who has finally started to take his talent and turn it into skill. That evolution will be on display as Harris pounds out Salter late in the first round following a Mount Everest slam.

Nick Catone vs. Jesse Forbes

In the WrestleMania fight on the card, Catone and Forbes will live or die on their wrestling in this one. The difference? Forbes has been touring the local circuit and fighting no-names, while Catone has been busy cutting his teeth in the Octagon. Jumping back into the UFC with no real preparation might be the worst idea since Zubas pants, and Catone will be chomping at the bit to exploit that weakness. Forbes will not have an answer for Catone’s ground-and-pound and will end up losing a decision for his troubles.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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Mixed martial arts on free television serves as the universal dinner bell for anyone who enjoys well-regulated violence, and this Saturday on Spike TV, UFC 105 “Couture vs. Vera” hits the Manchester Evening News Arena in Manchester, England. With a main event starring UFC legend Randy Couture and the uber-talented Brandon Vera, fans have the only reason they need to park themselves in front of the biggest television they can find when the bell rings.

Throw in a welterweight title eliminator, the formal debuts of “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 9 winners and the return of England’s favorite fighting son, Michael Bisping, and the top-tier fireworks are booked.

Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera

The Breakdown: Welcome to time warp mode, as Couture looks to replicate the success of his 2003 cut down to light heavyweight, which included two title reigns. Couture’s quarry, Vera, simply wants to reclaim his blue-chip status by capping off his 2009 campaign with what would be a career-changing win.

The fight essentially comes down to Vera’s ability to use his reach and wrestling to force Couture out of his usual ground-and-pound mode. Simply put, Couture cannot keep up with Vera on the feet, and his usual dirty boxing strategy seems fraught with danger, considering Vera’s unique combination of wrestling and muay Thai.

Couture has the advantage in experience and fight IQ, both of which have given Vera problems in the past, since he seems to rely more on talent than strategy to win. Everyone knows Couture will step into the cage with a sound strategy; whether his body will be as sharp as his mind remains a question that should be on everyone’s mind.

Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

The X-Factor: Courage under fire has proven a rare intangible inside the cage, and if past history is any indicator, Vera is not the guy you want in a foxhole with you. Time and time again, Vera’s well-hyped talent has been overshadowed by his inability to work through the inevitable difficulties that come with fighting angry men for a living.

Barring some absurdly easy knockout, Vera will be put to the test, and the professor will be a man who has broken many a will before. For better or worse, the MMA world will find out exactly what Vera has underneath all that bravado.

The Bottom Line: A litany of practical reasons why Vera will win this fight exist, and none are more compelling than Couture being 46 years old. With that said, Couture’s entire career has been built on defying the odds, and Vera is notorious for his high-stakes failures. Take old man Couture in a three-round decision that will lead to a fresh round of hyperbole from Joe Rogan.

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Stephen Albanese/Sherdog.com

Mike Swick vs. Dan Hardy

The Breakdown: In a title eliminator with a shot at welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre as the somewhat-masochistic prize, Swick and Hardy have distinguished themselves in a division rapidly running out of contenders. The style clash between them depends largely on how Swick approaches Hardy, who has proven lethal as a striker but lacks the same mystique on the mat.

While most of Swick’s success has come as a striker, he has shown the intelligence to throw changeups at the opposition. Remember when he adopted a wrestling-centric approach against Marcus Davis at UFC 85? That versatility and Swick’s willingness to use it will play heavily into just how much of Hardy’s vaunted striking the sure-to-be rabid locals will get to see.

The X-Factor: There will not be much Hardy can do if Swick starts shooting for his legs, but the mohawked Brit has shown himself to be a gifted counterpuncher, and Swick has the habit of getting wide with his fists. Both bode well for Hardy, who needs to use his jab and force Swick to set up his takedowns with punches.

Those punches will give Hardy the time he needs to measure his counters and perhaps force Swick into exchanges for which he is not prepared. Hardy has the equal measures of patience and aggression necessary to make the strategy work; it boils down to staying focused in between takedowns.

The Bottom Line: It will not be pretty, but Swick will take an uneventful decision fueled by savvy strategy and tactical ground-and-pound. Prepare to keep your sound system on low because the chorus of boos will be loud enough to shatter glass.

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Terry Goodlad/Sherdog.com

Michael Bisping vs. Denis Kang

The Breakdown: Bisping and Kang are talented middleweights who saw anticipated title runs go up in smoke. Now, they face each other for a shot to reboot their stalled careers. If one looks at this fight from a talent perspective, Kang has Bisping’s number, considering his edge on the feet and on the mat.

While Bisping remains a solid all-around fighter, he lacks anything overwhelming in his offensive repertoire and mostly relies on his high work-rate to wear out opponents. Kang, however, may not give him the chance to do anything except get run over.

The X-Factor: The worries of Kang fans are twofold since he often comes into fights looking disinterested, and even when he gives it his all, his propensity for bone-headed mistakes has cost him before. The longer Bisping keeps this fight going, the better his chances get.

The Bottom Line: Flip a coin. Every Kang fight has become a game of probability, with one side of the coin representing his million-dollar talent and the other representing lukewarm results. This time around, Kang takes a decision, mainly because Bisping no longer inspires confidence.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

James Wilks vs. Matt Brown

The Breakdown: As one of two “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 9 winners making his formal UFC debut, Wilks has no easy road waiting for him. Brown’s savage slugging represents his first obstacle. This will turn into a clash of weaknesses, as Brown’s ground game remains suspect and Wilks will likely get his face rearranged if he tries to trade blows.

Brown’s ability, or potential lack thereof, to stop Wilks’ takedown attempts matters most. Wilks excels at closing the pocket, but his wrestling does not appear all that sharp and Brown’s brute physicality could be enough to dissuade him from stepping inside. If that turns out to be the case, Wilks might as well flop to the mat and wait for the end to come.

The X-Factor: If Wilks can secure a takedown, Brown goes from dominant to prone, as his mediocre mat game has kept him cast in a gatekeeper role. Keep an eye on how Brown controls range early; if he fails at it, he will be tapping soon afterwards.

The Bottom Line: In another pick ’em fight, gamble on Wilks cinching a submission after some early difficulties from Brown’s fists. Arena security will undoubtedly be hoping for a Wilks victory since it will make their night’s work that much easier. The Brits do not take well to losing.

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Jim Page/Sherdog.com

Ross Pearson vs. Aaron Riley

The Breakdown: Pearson, the other debuting “The Ultimate Fighter 9” winner, gets no easy road, either, as he has been slotted against a consummate professional. Both men are versatile fighters, but Pearson has youth on his side. Riley is a veteran of 40 fights, many of which came with a heavy toll.

That physical debt continues to collect on Riley’s game. He has gradually lost a step or two in the cage, which is often more than enough to take a fighter right out of it. Unless Riley finds Randy Couture’s fountain of youth, he will have to face off with a younger, better version of himself.

The X-Factor: If nothing else, Riley has proven himself a tough competitor who never backs down from a fight. Pearson beat Andre Winner at “The Ultimate Fighter 9” Finale by outlasting him; that does not appear to be as wise a strategy against someone as savvy as Riley.

The Bottom Line: Take Pearson in a close fight in which Riley cannot find the extra gear needed to win. With that, mass chaos will be averted, as just enough of the local fighters notch wins to keep the peace.

Friday, September 18, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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As if Floyd Mayweather Jr. didn’t hate the UFC enough as is, he can expect this Saturday’s UFC 103 event to take a big chunk out of his pay-per-view bonus for fighting Juan Manuel Marquez in Las Vegas the same night the UFC sets up shop in Dallas. Mayweather’s financial fears come with good reason, too. The UFC lineup marks the return of fan favorite Vitor Belfort against former middleweight champion Rich Franklin in a 195-pound catch-weight bout that may be an unconventional main event but should make for top-shelf violence regardless.

Backing up the headliner is the return of Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic, who will take on top heavyweight prospect Junior dos Santos, and the UFC debut of standout British welterweight Paul Daley, who has to tangle with premier contender Martin Kampmann. Rounding out the main card is a welterweight scrap between returning UFC veteran Frank Trigg and the uber-talented Josh Koscheck as well as a critical lightweight tilt pitting Tyson Griffin’s massive legs against Hermes Franca’s cinder block right hand.

I know what I’ll be watching Saturday night: the best of MadTV! I’ve just been informed I’m not allowed to say that, so just watch the fights and keep the hate mail coming. I’m building myself a hammock made entirely out of hate, a hate-mock if you will, and I need just a little more hate to finish it.

Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort

The Breakdown: The weight-class limbo continues for Franklin, who will look to spoil Belfort’s return to the UFC in a 195-pound catch-weight contest. What makes this bout interesting is that for the umpteenth time, Belfort looks like a rejuvenated fighter thanks to knockout wins over Terry Martin and Matt Lindland. More importantly, Belfort has the edge in speed and footwork over Franklin, who has developed a somewhat predictable style that overemphasizes his powerful left body kick and equally dangerous straight left.

While those are Franklin’s best weapons, he leaves himself wide-open for counters on both (see how Wanderlei Silva eventually found those openings in their bout at UFC 99). Belfort is a far more fundamentally sound boxer than Silva. His stiff southpaw jab could create problems for Franklin, who doesn’t do a good job of controlling range with his own jab. This fight certainly doesn’t favor Franklin on the feet, but Belfort has struggled against ground-and-pound-minded opponents in the past and Franklin has shown nasty striking on the mat.

The ground part of that strategy may prove difficult for Franklin, however. Belfort is hardly a free takedown, and Franklin himself is typically hesitant to hit the mat. If Franklin can’t disrupt Belfort’s rhythm on the feet with takedowns or clinch work, his chin will eventually catch up to him and Belfort has long been one of the best finishers in the game.

The X Factor: Matching southpaws against each other always yields interesting results, and both fighters could find it difficult to effectively employ their favored tactics. The other variable looming over this fight is Belfort’s brain, which is about as stable as an Iranian election. It doesn’t take much to throw Belfort off his game, and Franklin is as focused and committed a fighter as you’ll ever find. “Ace” needs to make this an uncomfortable fight for Belfort. If he allows Belfort to sit back, create angles and measure punches, this fight will be a painfully one-sided proposition for Cincinnati’s favorite son.

The Bottom Line: Trying to predict what Belfort will do is as pointless as watching a Rob Schneider movie in search of a laugh. With that said, Belfort has finally started doing all the things fans have been begging him to do for years: stay patient, work the jab and use all of his skills. Franklin won’t have an answer for Belfort’s superior boxing and massive hand speed advantage, and by the time he does go for a takedown, he’ll find it far easier said than done. This one ends with Franklin starched on the canvas and Belfort instantaneously christened as a premier contender in the middleweight class.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Junior “Cigano” dos Santos

The Breakdown: The new guard of the UFC heavyweight division gets another chance to announce their presence when Dos Santos looks to add a high-profile scalp to his collection against faded heavyweight superstar Filipovic. Once upon a time in Pride, Filipovic’s K1-bred kickboxing made him a terror. Time, however, has robbed him of the balance, reflexes and footwork that made him such a uniquely dangerous fighter. It makes for a stark contrast to the Filipovic of today, who now relies heavily on boxing that doesn’t match up against Dos Santos’ superior hand speed and accuracy.

Although Dos Santos does have the habit of walking straight in and keeping his right hand too low, Filipovic was getting walked down by Mustapha Al-Turk at UFC 99 and, more importantly, I could solve world hunger in the time it took him to find the huge openings in Al-Turk’s defense. When Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg find the holes in your opponent’s defense before you do, you’ve got problems. Dos Santos’ aggressive style means Filipovic won’t have the time he needs to find a home for his strikes. Cro-Bauer doesn’t do well when he’s forced out of his methodical style, and Dos Santos will step right inside his range with powerful, accurate punches. Whether Filipovic still has the balance and speed to do anything about it is what will decide his future fistic luck.

The X Factor: Injuries are the universal reality in sports, and figuring out just how much they influence a fighter’s performance is like trying to get through an episode of TMZ: absolutely pointless in multiple ways. Filipovic has struggled with injuries in the past. Now he claims a clean bill of health, but after watching his supposed comeback against Al-Turk, it looks as if he has more than injuries to worry about. The tools are there: Filipovic’s left high kick and southpaw jab are made to pick apart Dos Santos. The ability to use them may be a thing of the past, though.

The Bottom Line: At this point in his career, Filipovic’s legendary left high kick is a weapon he can no longer wield, and that inability to keep opponents at bay with the threat of kicks has thrown off his whole striking game. This reality will become apparent when Dos Santos gets right in his grill and starts winging combinations that our favorite terrorist stomper doesn’t have the means to evade or counter. It won’t take long for Dos Santos to discover that his favored left hook feint to right uppercut combo has a home inside Filipovic’s defense, and that same right uppercut that caved in Werdum’s jaw will add another low point to Filipovic’s UFC career.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Martin Kampmann vs. Paul Daley

The Breakdown: Originally a high-stakes No. 1-contender match, Kampmann’s scheduled opponent, Mike Swick, was a late scratch thanks to a training camp injury. In Swick’s stead is brutal British kickboxer Paul Daley. A new face in the mutant shark tank that is the welterweight division, Daley is one of the best strikers in the game today, but his takedown defense and subpar jiu-jitsu have kept him from fulfilling his obvious potential. While Kampmann is known for his kickboxing base, he has developed excellent takedown skills inside the Greco-Roman clinch and his jiu-jitsu is surprisingly fluid.

What should worry Kampmann is his chin, which made his time as a middleweight extremely difficult and could haunt him again if he allows this fight to turn into a pure kickboxing match. Unfortunately for Daley, Kampmann is a savvy fighter who knows when to switch gears. Kampmann’s reach advantage over Daley will also allow him to use the jab to keep Daley from charging in. That tactic was used to great effect by Nick Thompson in his bout with Daley, and as long as Kampmann follows suit, Daley will have tapped out long before he gets a chance to score the knockout.

The X Factor: An underrated aspect of Daley’s game is his skill inside the Thai clinch. It could pose a problem for Kampmann, who uses the clinch to set up his takedowns. Any takedowns Kampmann goes for will have to be executed swiftly, and if he plans on keeping Daley down, he needs to avoid the cage or risk Daley cage walking his way out of trouble. Treading carefully will be key for Kampmann in this bout, as the slightest mistake could give Daley all the opportunity he needs to send him on a one-way trip to the canvas.

The Bottom Line: Daley will make for an interesting addition to the UFC, but he won’t crack the upper echelon of contenders and it will show against Kampmann. The difference in wrestling ability will simply be too much for Daley to overcome, and Kampmann’s own kickboxing background should be enough to keep him out of harm’s way. Expect Daley to have his moments on the feet. They will be quickly snatched away, though, as Kampmann hits takedown after takedown and wears down the British sparkplug en route to a second-round submission win via the arm-triangle choke.

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Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com

Josh Koscheck vs. Frank Trigg

The Breakdown: After an extended vacation from the UFC, Trigg returns to face what haunted him throughout his first run in the Octagon — an elite wrestler. Any way you approach it, Koscheck is one of the best wrestlers in the game, and Trigg’s time as an elite welterweight was given an unceremonious end at the hands of dominant wrestlers — namely, Matt Hughes and Georges St. Pierre. If this turns into a wrestling match, Koscheck is not only the vastly superior overall wrestler, his jiu-jitsu is solid as well and Trigg is notorious for guard work that resembles the death throes of someone being eaten alive (not pretty).

The only reason this fight isn’t a slam dunk for Koscheck is that he’s taken to running himself off the cliff like a B-grade Wile E. Coyote lately. For whatever reason, he has been acting like a boxer his last three fights and, not surprisingly, he’s got a 1-2 record to match. I’m all for fighters becoming versatile but not when it’s more self-destructive than dating Chris Brown. As we saw in Koscheck’s bout with Thiago Alves, all it takes is a few stuffed takedowns to draw Koscheck into a firefight. While that still doesn’t guarantee Trigg the W he so desperately needs, it’s probably his only hope.

The X Factor: While Koscheck’s fans hope he’s regained his senses and reverts back to his ground-and-pound ways, the more pragmatic observer has to wonder if he has lost the edge on his wrestling after going more than a year without using it effectively. Skills are not static. The less you use them, the more they lose their effectiveness. In all fairness, Trigg’s wrestling ability has faded, but it may not matter if Koscheck has lost that extra gear on his supersonic shot.

The Bottom Line: This fight is a bitter slice of reality for Trigg. He isn’t the fighter he used to be and, even at his best, Koscheck is a better version of him. Expect Trigg to try and press Koscheck on the feet, which is the exact opposite of what he should do considering both Alves and Paulo Thiago found success by letting Koscheck come to them. Regardless of what Trigg does, bank on Koscheck’s trainers at AKA getting him back to focusing on double legs instead of overhand rights. Once Koscheck gets Trigg on his back, start taking bets on how long it takes for the tapout.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Tyson Griffin vs. Hermes Franca

The Breakdown: The opener for the evening may be the night’s most interesting match, as UFC veteran Hermes Franca looks to comeback from a disastrous torn ACL by taking out one of the lightweight division’s new guard in Tyson Griffin. What makes this matchup so interesting is that both fighters seem to have the same problem: They rely too much on their standup for offense despite having strong mat skills. Inaccurate power punches and the occasional leg kick do not a striker make, regardless of what these two think.

With that said, there will likely be plenty of striking in this fight with both men doing the same thing: landing booming leg kicks and the occasional power punch, which will ultimately lead nowhere since neither of them has the accuracy or fundamentals to string together punches effectively. The real difference in this bout is that Griffin knows how to move from striking to wrestling fluidly, and Franca lacks the takedown defense to do anything about it except flail like he’s riding a rollercoaster with no seatbelt on.

While Franca’s guard is certainly dangerous, Griffin has neutralized jiu-jitsu players like Rafael dos Anjos and Thiago Tavares. By the same token, Franca has losses to Sean Sherk and Frankie Edgar, both of whom approximate Griffin’s style. As long as Griffin stays cautious inside Franca’s guard or passes it altogether, his ground-and-pound game will loom large in this bout.

The X Factor: For reasons that defy probability, Franca always finds a way to land his hideous yet undeniably effective overhand right. That one punch nearly turned a lopsided decision win for Edgar into a knockout loss, and it is also the punch Griffin must avoid at all costs. Considering Griffin’s ongoing love affair with kickboxing, he may not have the wherewithal to realize the obvious until after Franca leaves his head looking like a mildly used piñata.

The Bottom Line: This will be the tensest bout of the night. Rounds will be won or lost by the slimmest of margins. Ultimately, Griffin will take the edge by stepping inside of Franca’s punches, throwing quick combos and immediately going for the takedown. That wash, rinse and repeat approach worked beautifully for Edgar, and don’t think Griffin’s trainers at Xtreme Couture aren’t aware of it. Superior strategy wins the match for Griffin, who takes home a close but clear-cut decision to relaunch his run at the lightweight title.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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While the world wonders how the former street fight champion of YouTube, Kimbo Slice, will fit into the already bizarre realm of reality TV, those of us with two brain cells to scrape together can look forward to UFC Fight Night on Wednesday. Oklahoma City, a home to both good in mega-baller Kevin Durant and pure evil in Garth Brooks, will play host to its first UFC card since Yeltsin’s booze-fueled heyday. With the titular main card matching Stockton trash-talker supreme Nate Diaz against his New Orleans equivalent in Melvin Guillard, the pre-fight interview highlights will be better than anything in television history.

The rest of the main card lives up to the same fistic standard. Roger Huerta will make his UFC return against the new blue-chipper of the lightweight class, Gray Maynard, while the king of the mean-face, Carlos Condit, locks up with UFC debutante Jake Ellenberger. Rounding out an evening of top-shelf violence is Tim Credeur putting his undefeated UFC run up against middleweight gatekeeper du jour, Nate Quarry.

Be honest with yourselves about your Wednesday night plans: You can either watch super-athletes fight for money or you can spend your night gambling on major network midseason replacements. I think anyone who watched “More to Love” will tell you that for the sake of your faith in the decency of humanity, just watch the fights.

Nate Diaz vs. Melvin Guillard

The Breakdown: One of the more unlikely UFC main events in recent memory finds Diaz desperately trying to put a two-fight losing streak behind him while Guillard is coming off a controversial but career-saving win over Gleison Tibau that some consider the biggest Christmas gift since Ralphie got his BB gun at the end of “A Christmas Story.” What really bailed out Guillard in his bout with Tibau was his ability to stuff the initial takedown attempt and cage walk his way out of trouble whenever Tibau finished. Diving forward for takedowns is not Diaz’s game, though, as he prefers to trade on the feet and transition to the mat during scrambles.

The first part of that approach will be critical as Guillard’s speed and power make him a constant knockout threat, albeit one with holes in his defense that Diaz’s southpaw stance is ready-made to exploit. Namely, Guillard keeps his left hand dangerously low and drops it down to the Mariana Trench whenever he leads with the jab. Much like his chronically chronic older brother, Diaz throws a lot of right hooks and it may be a matter of time before one finds Guillard’s suspect chin. As we’ve seen in his bouts with both Tibau and Joe Stevenson, once Guillard gets rocked, his all-universe takedown defense disappears faster than Alec at a Baldwin brothers reunion. Not good news for a fighter who gives up position far too easily and relies more on athleticism than skill on the mat.

The X Factor: Bravado runs deep for Diaz. He’ll have no qualms about trading with Guillard despite giving up speed, power and versatility on the feet to him. By the same token, Guillard was shooting double legs on Tibau, which was like watching a zebra fillet itself for a lion. Diaz will happily pull guard if Guillard makes the same mistake, but he may not get the chance to if he starts playing Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots first. Neither fighter is Bobby Fischer when it comes to strategy, but they’ll both need some to keep their flaws from becoming fatal.

The Bottom Line: For all the improvement Guillard showed in his match with Tibau, he still didn’t land much in the first two rounds and got soundly outclassed in the third. Against an opponent who is far more aggressive on the mat and better equipped to hold his own standing, Guillard will have even less margin for error and it’s always a matter of time before he starts leaving himself open. Expect Diaz to frustrate Guillard with the right hook-straight left combo early before putting the lights out by chin-checking Guillard and catching him mid-scramble with a textbook brabo choke.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Gray Maynard vs. Roger Huerta

The Breakdown: There is no fury like a Dana scorned. That is a lesson Huerta is coming to grips with as his final UFC-contracted bout comes against the human battering ram known as Gray Maynard. For those not in the know, Huerta complained publicly about fighter compensation and then took an extended vacation from the UFC to try his luck in Hollywood. Despite being built into a star by the UFC’s marketing machinations, the holes in Huerta’s wrestling and striking were on display for all to see in bouts against Kenny Florian and Clay Guida. Maynard’s combination of stultifying wrestling and perpetually improving boxing means Huerta is being lined up for a loss.

Just look at Huerta’s struggles in the past to stop wrestlers like Douglas Evans and Guida from scoring takedowns at will. Now consider Maynard’s purebred wrestling pedigree for all the proof you need that Maynard will control the terms of engagement from the opening bell. While Huerta has always relied on his striking to get him out of trouble, his boxing is substandard and he has the bad habit of telegraphing his kicks and knees by either opening his stance too early or planting his lead foot too far out in front. With Maynard having ditched his haymaker style in favor of a more disciplined approach, Huerta won’t have the luxury of fighting a reckless opponent and it doesn’t take much more than a sound game plan to knock off the UFC’s would-be Mexican superstar.

The X Factor: For all of Maynard’s obvious talent, he’s still very much a straight-up boxer/wrestler archetype, and that is something Huerta can take advantage of. One obvious weakness is that Maynard checks leg kicks about as often as Matthew McConaughey stars in a quality movie. Huerta may not be Buakaw, but neither is Jim Miller. Miller was able to land both leg and body kicks with ease against Maynard, who appeared clueless on how to defend them. The other hole in Maynard’s style is his habit of going for body blows without setting them up properly, which only leaves him wide open for counters upstairs. In order for Huerta to even think of capitalizing on that, though, he’ll have to keep his punches short and his feet moving because his chin won’t keep him upright for long if he tries his Julio Cesar Chavez impersonation on Maynard.

The Bottom Line: The problem for Huerta here is that even if he strikes the right balance on the feet, there isn’t a thing he can do to stop from getting sucked into the black hole that is Maynard’s shot. Huerta already got a reprieve from the fight gods in his fight with Guida when he hit that unholy knee. Expecting the same against an even better version of the same fighter makes my inner statistician laugh. Maynard will learn from Guida’s Waterloo moment: He’ll keep Huerta horizontal while methodically wearing him down from half-guard before eventually taking a bloody ground-and-pound TKO win.

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Stephen Martinez/Sherdog.com

Carlos Condit vs. Jake Ellenberger

The Breakdown: From the life-isn’t-fair file, Ellenberger will be making his UFC debut on a month’s notice and he has to snuff out the butterflies while surviving the offensive brilliance of Condit. In fairness to Ellenberger, he’s just as aggressive as Condit and has shown power on the feet as well as a dangerous top game when he passes guard. However, like most hyper-aggressive fighters, Ellenberger is hiding some flaws. The most glaring is a porous guard and striking defense that is highlighted by dropping his hands every chance he gets.

The latter is the biggest problem. Condit may not be a kill-shot artist, but he is rangy and accurate while Ellenberger does his best work from close quarters. Should Ellenberger somehow manage to collapse the pocket, Condit’s clinch game is superior and Ellenberger’s finishing skill on takedowns reminds me of watching Carlos Mencia make a joke: They both try real hard but fail spectacularly. Wasting all that effort on poorly executed takedowns leaves Ellenberger vulnerable late, and Condit has the gas tank to take over just as Ellenberger fades. If that happens, Ellenberger’s fade will quickly turn into a flop.

The X Factor: Most of Condit’s success on the feet is built on using his accuracy and versatility to dictate the tempo, but Ellenberger’s speed and power advantage gives him the ability to throw Condit’s rhythm off by moving in and out with flurries. Keeping the pace unpredictable would keep Condit from finding his range and allow Ellenberger to rack up points without turning the fight into a brawl that he would eventually lose. That strategy, however, would take composure that Ellenberger has yet to show. More than anything, he has to stay focused on creating a fight that he can win instead of going kamikaze and getting his head kicked off.

The Bottom Line: Ellenberger is fighting someone who does everything better than him, which leaves few options and numerous problems. It won’t take Condit long to exploit that as he keeps Ellenberger at bay with kicks and straight punches while countering his flurries by working compact hook combos up close. As the damage takes its toll on Ellenberger and he starts losing the steam on his strikes, the difference in skill will become painfully obvious. Bank on seeing plenty of Condit’s Lecter-esque psycho-smile before he notches a lopsided TKO win.

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File Photo

Nate Quarry vs. Tim Credeur

The Breakdown: Watching Credeur go 3-0 in the UFC is like watching Brett Favre play quarterback: You just know things are going horribly wrong sooner rather than later. That 3-0 run can’t hide striking fundamentals so hideous they’d make Freddie Roach have a grand mal seizure on sight. Whether it’s Credeur’s telegraphed punches, uncoordinated footwork or the especially troubling combination of keeping his chin up while leaning his upper body forward, Quarry will have no shortage of openings to exploit on the feet and his down-the-pipe punching style is precisely what Credeur has appeared vulnerable to in the past.

The most bizarre part of Credeur’s striking is that there is no reason for him to use it so much. His jiu-jitsu skill is impressive, and he is one of the few whose offensive repertoire is not reliant on gaining the top position. That’s an important factoid since Quarry is the superior wrestler and will likely follow his usual game plan of unloading on the feet before transitioning to ground-and-pound mode if he meets with resistance. The problem here is that Credeur has the stereotypical banger’s mentality. Given Quarry’s significant edge in punching power, by the time Credeur realizes he needs to work his jiu-jitsu, he may be on a stool getting his brain functions checked. Fighting mediocre UFC talent has allowed Credeur to succeed without resolving the issues in his game; that trend ends with this fight.

The X Factor: Unlike most grapplers in an MMA setting, Credeur favors using an open guard that relies on butterfly hooks to disrupt his opponent’s base and keep him safe from ground-and-pound tactics. That strategy worked beautifully against Nick Catone, but if you watch Quarry’s bout with Jason MacDonald, you’ll notice Quarry turned into Conan the Destroyer as soon as MacDonald opened up his guard. If Credeur has to use his guard at any point, his usual approach may end with him being crushed and driven away as Quarry hears the lamentations of the women and ignores the vengeful howls of Crom. I need to stop writing after watching 80’s movies.

The Bottom Line: Quarry may not be a reference-quality striker, but he’s significantly improved his footwork and defensive skills, which has resulted in a fighter who isn’t quite so painfully robotic as he once was. Being able to use footwork to create angles on a fighter who throws sloppy, looping punches is always key. Not only does Quarry have that ability, his power means he will need only a handful of chances to put fist to face. Once that happens, Credeur’s awkward style will become a fight-ending liability as Quarry takes an impressive ground-and-pound TKO win after dropping Credeur with a straight right down the pipe early.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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Flying ninja robots, mutant monkey assassins and … wait, that’s next month’s UFC. No worries. UFC 102 “Couture vs. Nogueira,” booked for the Rose Garden in Portland, Ore., is stacked top to bottom with enough top-shelf violence to claim yet another Saturday night from mixed martial arts fans the world over.

With a main card headlined by two of the sport’s heavyweight heavyweights, Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, one needs no other reason to cancel that family reunion and spend an evening getting reacquainted with the wonders of television.

Plus, Demian Maia will flex his jiu-jitsu, Keith Jardine will remind the world he’s the world’s funkiest Viking and maybe those flying ninja robots will make an appearance. In the meantime, settle in for some serious fight talk. Perhaps some of it will manage to be accurate.

Scott Doctor/Splash News

Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

The Breakdown: Two of MMA’s heavyweight legends look to prove naysayers wrong one more time, as elder face smasher Couture takes on a suddenly shopworn Nogueira. Despite being just a few months removed from his 33rd birthday, Nogueira’s years of absorbing beatings like a Brazilian Jake LaMotta seemed to catch up with him when Frank Mir soundly trounced him at UFC 92. Couture is not coming off the fight of his life, either, as he failed to stop the centaur known as Brock Lesnar from claiming the heavyweight crown that once rested on his own head. With that said, Couture has not left his last few fights looking like a back-alley hospital patient.

With Mir having already written the script for starching Nogueira, watch for Couture to use his wrestling to keep the fight standing and rely on his boxing from there. Whether or not playing the same tune as Mir works for Couture will depend on just how much of his old self Nogueira has rediscovered in his eight months away from the cage. In a sport where nostalgia runs deep but counts for little, Nogueira has to prove he still has something left to offer after already giving so much.

The X Factor: Lost in all the dismissive chatter about Nogueira is the fact that Couture is a 46-year-old man competing in a sport that skews younger than the cast of whatever atrocious teen-age drama the CW airs. Sooner or later, Couture is going to hit the same wall Brett Favre has already run into several times. How capable Nogueira is of sending him on his way remains anyone’s guess, but he’s proven everyone wrong countless times before.

***

The Bottom Line: Nogueira fans should start practicing their cringing, as Couture is going to turn this into a one-sided dirty boxing display that the Brazilian won’t be able to do much of anything about. No miracle submissions this time around, as Nogueira ends up getting saved by the referee’s sense of compassion but not before taking two rounds worth of Couture’s old-school bullying.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Thiago Silva vs. Keith Jardine

The Breakdown: Two of the light heavyweight division’s forgotten men look to restart their title runs, as Silva and Jardine try to bounce back from demoralizing losses by bouncing their fists off of each other’s heads. While Jardine is at his best snapping leg kicks and confounding opponents with his off-kilter timing and angles, Silva is at his best on the mat, using his slick guard passing and positioning to pound out opponents. However, Silva often confuses himself with a striker, and that bit of identity crisis could cost him a fight he can ill afford to lose.

The X Factor: As uncoordinated as Jardine looks inside the cage, he actually has shown stout takedown defense. That could become a major factor, as Silva has the bad habit of going into Clubber Lang mode when his takedowns come up short. Discipline and proper game planning have been absent from Silva’s game before, and he’ll need both to deal with Jardine.

***

The Bottom Line: My personal betting favorite for “Fight of the Night,” expect a wild one, with Jardine loading up on the leg kicks and Silva answering with his underrated clinch game. Eventually, Silva’s struggle for the takedown will tax his cardio and leave him gasping for air as Jardine starts finding a home for his unorthodox arsenal. Do not expect Silva’s chin to be up to the punishment, as Jardine scores an impressive third-round technical knockout and immediately goes into Techno Viking mode.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Demian Maia vs. Nate Marquardt

The Breakdown: Title implications abound, as jiu-jitsu demigod Maia looks to lock up a date with UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva by keeping Marquardt from a second date with the Baryshnikov of violence. At this point, Maia is a tough fighter to gauge, as his jiu-jitsu has proven so dominant that no one has forced him to show anything but his all-universe mat machinations. While Marquardt is a solid grappler in his own right, he is well out of his depth against Maia and must instead focus on using his strength and striking advantage in tandem to keep this fight upright. Otherwise, Marquardt will be padding Maia’s bank account by ending up on the wrong end of a “Submission of the Night” award.

The X Factor: No one knows anything about Maia’s striking or conditioning, and Marquardt has the style to keep this fight going long enough to get answers on both fronts. Plenty of fighters look like the second coming of Chuck Norris when they get to play by their own rules and just as many come crashing down to earth when the game changes on them. Sooner or later, Maia is going to have to step outside his kingdom, and Marquardt may just drag him out of it kicking, screaming and perhaps even tapping.

***

The Bottom Line: This will be Maia’s toughest fight yet, but not even Marquardt busting out the pile driver again will be enough to save him from getting ensnared in the Brazilian’s web of tangled limbs and blocked airways. The difference maker this time around will be Maia’s wrestling, as Marquardt struggles to keep him at bay before learning the same lesson Chael Sonnen learned against Maia — some of these jiu-jitsu guys have that wrestling stuff pretty well figured out.

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James Meinhardt/Sherdog.com

Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt

The Breakdown: The dearly departed John Hughes would be proud to see this battle of high school archetypes, as the skateboarding outcast, Leben, takes on the classic uber-jock, Rosholt. While everyone in high school knew better than to tempt the ginormous wrestler, the absurd hype that accompanied Rosholt’s MMA transition has proven premature, as he went from overblown prospect in World Extreme Cagefighting to overmatched bust in his UFC debut against Dan Miller. This may be Rosholt’s last chance to reclaim some of his lost cache, but Leben will not be an easy mark, as his cinderblock fists and steadily improving jiu-jitsu are not weapons Rosholt’s one-note style is built to withstand.

The X Factor: Unless Rosholt either body slams Leben unconscious or runs chin-first into one of his fists, conditioning will be critical as this bout wears on. While Leben has had to dig deep on many an occasion, Rosholt has just six fights to his name and barely lasted a minute in his less than grand UFC debut. One way or another, Rosholt will answer a lot of the questions surrounding his once promising career.

***

The Bottom Line: Leben will keep it close early by frustrating Rosholt on the mat before leveling him with his trademark overhand right late in the second round. If you listen closely, you can hear the Rosholt bandwagon clearing out.

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Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com

Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski

The Breakdown: Mr. Scrabble, Soszynski, puts his run of Octagon dominance against the perpetually hyped Vera in a bout that both men desperately need to win in order to make headway in the lion’s den light heavyweight class. While the hype machine favors Vera, Soszynski has come alive like Peter Frampton in the UFC, and his combination of bruising striking and a paralyzing mat game is just the style with which Vera has struggled. Do not discount Vera’s leg-snapping kickboxing, but he’s always struggled to impose his style on opponents, and Soszynski excels at forcing his game down the throat of whoever stares him down from across the cage.

The X Factor: For all the talent these two possess, they both have a history of coming up shorter than an Oompa-Loompa in big spots. If either fighter plans on making a serious run at the strap, those days of in-cage thumb twitting need to go the way of U2’s musical legitimacy. Pre-fight assurances aside, that history of ineffective violence weighs heavily on this bout. Whoever can’t exorcise that demon from his past will be moving one step closer to the UFC’s one-way exit.

***

The Bottom Line: After years spent as a highly touted blue-chipper, Vera will complete his slow slide into bust status, as “The Polish Experiment” dissects him with a memorable ground-and-pound assault.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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Two of the heavyweight division’s most legendary fighters, Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, will spit on their birth certificates and try for another round of Octagon glory at UFC 102 “Couture vs. Nogueira” this Saturday at the Rose Garden in Portland, Ore.

Because the name recognition is off the charts with those two, another quality undercard gets the short end of the publicity stick. Such injustices must not go on, so here follows another round of top-to-bottom prognostication.

The prelims are a smooth mix of prospects set to break the hype meter and unimpressed veterans looking to break the meter against the head of anyone looking to take their spots. Board the Todd Duffee bandwagon, ponder Justin McCully’s cornrows and shake your head as we try to bend the laws of probability for Chris Tuchscherer.

Photo Courtesy: UFC.com

Ed Herman vs. Aaron Simpson

The Breakdown: In the sleeper bout of the undercard, fast-rising middleweight prospect Simpson will make a Scott Bakula-level quantum leap in competition against Herman, who has entrenched himself as the division’s top gatekeeper. While Simpson has made his name with an undefeated string of technical knockout wins, Herman’s home remains on the mat, where he works his Team Quest-influenced brand of ground strikes and submissions. How Simpson holds up against Herman’s wrestling will be critical, as the former Arizona State wrestler has yet to show us if his wrestling pedigree translates to his new profession. Consider it an important tidbit, as Simpson’s human steamroller impersonation will not impress Herman, who has the chin and experience to force almost anyone out of their comfort zone.

The X Factor: Simpson’s dominance has proven a double-edged sword, as no one is quite sure how he’ll react when he has to work for a win against top-tier competition. Proving your mettle against someone like Herman is a lot like proving you can read by taking the SAT. How Simpson handles this steep step up will play heavily in how his evening — and any future UFC dates — plays out.

***

The Bottom Line: This will be the fight eagle-eyed fans watch closely. The next wave of middleweight challengers is in the midst of announcing its presence, and Simpson could be next in line. Do not expect him to make that move against Herman, who will turn this into a rough-and-tumble affair by skipping the striking and going for a ground-and-pound siege. There will be some dicey moments for Herman, as Simpson is bound to get in his licks sooner or later. The scorecards will smile on Herman, however, as he leaves his quarry a bloody mess after three rounds of plastic surgery disguised as ground-and-pound.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Chris Tuchscherer

The Breakdown: Not much to break down here, besides the fact that Gonzaga has been a top heavyweight contender for years and Tuchscherer’s gaudy record cannot cover up the stink from time spent in the YAMMA bowl. More than anything, Tuchscherer’s record serves as a testament to the dearth of quality heavyweights outside the major leagues of MMA. Tuchscherer will quickly become aware of that fact against Gonzaga, who has him beat on the mat and feet.

The X Factor: Unless Tuchscherer can break out a killer Junior dos Santos impersonation, he will find himself in way over his head in his UFC debut. Fighters brought into the UFC as little more than chum have turned probability on its head before, but the MMA Gods will allow only so much chaos in one calendar year.

***

The Bottom Line: Tuchscherer will make it to the second minute before he taps out. Expect another newcomer to get chewed up, spit out and sent home.

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Photo by Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Justin McCully vs. Mike Russow

The Breakdown: The UFC finally got the memo about the need for more heavyweights. Russow is one of three such competitors debuting on the undercard. McCully and his army of blood-curdling cornrows will take on the forgotten Pride Fighting Championships prospect. McCully has skated by in the UFC by out-wrestling strikers with the takedown defense of Meryl Streep. That is a luxury McCully will not enjoy against Russow, who is likely the better wrestler and certainly the more effective grappler. Unless McCully’s cornrows have some sort of Medusa effect he has kept secret, this looks like the end of his lay-and-pray reign.

The X Factor: Few expected McCully to stick around in the UFC; if nothing else, he has proven he can avoid danger and stay within his comfort zone. While Russow has shown the fundamentally superior wrestling game thus far, if McCully can find a flaw in his takedown defense, this fight takes on a whole new dimension. Russow has plenty of submissions to his name, which makes for a nice insurance policy, but getting the job done off his back with McCully clinging to him like a strait jacket is something for which he may not be ready.

***

The Bottom Line: Russow has quietly amassed a seven-fight winning streak, and he has proven a far more evolved fighter than McCully, who has nothing to offer beyond top control against this level of competition. Russow will mercilessly capitalize on his advantages, as he soundly outwrestles McCully before putting him away with his favored north-south choke midway through the first round.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Todd Duffee vs. Tim Hague

The Breakdown: Just one of several genetic anomalies populating the heavyweight division, the skyscraper with fists known as Hague will look to follow up his spoiler win over Patrick Barry by derailing another top-flight prospect in American Top Team disciple Duffee. Unlike Barry, Duffee is a full-fledged heavyweight, and his time with ATT has molded him into a surprisingly well-rounded fighter despite a record that’s thinner than an Olsen sister. That lack of world-class opposition may not matter much, as Hague has not taken on any world beaters. While Hague’s size and surprising skill make him a difficult style matchup, his usual routine of physically overwhelming opponents will not be enough to keep his upset streak alive.

The X Factor: When you have more than 12 feet and 500 pounds of humanity in the cage, cardio is bound to come into play, unless the Octagon collapses. Barring any such incident, the cardio battle will hinge on who can generate maximum offense with minimal effort. Hague’s solid record obscures the fact that his movements are severely telegraphed and his reach is virtually ignored as a strategic advantage. While Duffee is practically the same size as Hague, he is the faster and more dynamic fighter, which makes him the one more likely to take over when the adrenaline and testosterone meters hit zero.

***

The Bottom Line: Hague just barely managed to beat Barry and took plenty of damage en route; repeating that feat against a game opponent he cannot bully around is beyond his ability. The UFC hopes this fight can launch Duffee’s career, as he’s one of North America’s premier heavyweight prospects. Hague has just enough cache to his name to pass as a suitable opponent. Watch for Duffee to weather the Octagon jitters by keeping the kind of pace that would make a speed junkie blush. Hague will have no answer, except to tap the canvas when Duffee flips the switch and goes into a ground-and-pound frenzy.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Nick Catone vs. Mark Munoz

The Breakdown: Give Catone some credit; he’s a solid fighter who works an especially nasty top control game by combining his strong base and workmanlike submission skills. The problem? He’s facing Munoz, a born and bred mauler on the mat. A tremendous collegiate wrestler at Oklahoma State University, Munoz keeps up a surprisingly torrid pace, designed to trample opponents with the sheer volume of his offense. Catone prefers the slow and steady routine. Catone will not do himself any favors fighting methodically, and considering his usual offensive strategy is rendered useless against Munoz’s dominating wrestling, he would do well to unveil something no one has seen from him before.

The X Factor: Not everything is in Munoz’s favor for this fight, as he’s making his first cut down to middleweight and looking to rebound from a brutal knockout loss to Matt Hamill. Predicting how prospects will react to getting their skull inverted is an inexact science at best, but Munoz’s chin is hardly a house of cards, and Catone’s striking has not kept up anyone late at night.

***

The Bottom Line: Neither fighter likes working off his back, and Munoz is the better wrestler. While applying mathematical principles to MMA is something folks should leave to YouTube analysts, Munoz does not have much to worry about from Catone as long as he doesn’t baseball slide into a shin or guillotine choke. Look for Munoz to triumph, as he grounds-and-pounds his way to an impressive middleweight debut.

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Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Marcus Aurelio vs. Evan Dunham

The Breakdown: The new blood, Dunham, takes on the mercurial blood in Aurelio, whose entire career has been spent going back and forth between atom-smasher and glorified pickaxe. That inconsistency has kept Aurelio trapped under a glass ceiling of his own making, but Dunham looks like just the kind of foe Aurelio has eaten alive in the UFC. A solid if unspectacular fighter, Dunham needs to get Aurelio off balance early or risk getting plowed over by one of the Brazilian’s cannonball double legs and ending up as just another submission skin for the part-time virtuoso.

The X Factor: The only factor that should keep anyone from running to the bank with Aurelio is the troubling disconnect between his brain and body. For someone with real athleticism to go with his technical savvy, Aurelio puts two and two together with all the consistency of a 4-year-old. If Dunham can throw a wrench in Aurelio’s plans early, it will not be long before he’s beating him upside the head with it.

***

The Bottom Line: Aurelio is due for another one of those fights during which he whips his fans into a frenzy by turning some hapless soul into a glorified grappling dummy. That supporting role awaits Dunham, who will not be able to stave off Aurelio’s opening bell bull rush and will instead have to wait for a bailout from the referee.

Wednesday, August 05, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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As if it were not enough to have the World Series champions in town, Philadelphia will also get UFC 101 “Declaration,” which will fill the Wachovia Center this Saturday with fight-starved fans of the Eastern Time Zone. B.J. Penn’s long-overdue lightweight title bout with Kenny Florian will headline the event, as Florian will look to unseat the Hawaiian and join the growing list of “The Ultimate Fighter” alumni who have held UFC gold.

Considering the dearth of quality mixed martial arts on this side of the Union, the UFC will back up that featured bout with current UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva’s showdown with former light heavyweight titleholder Forrest Griffin in a match that could earn Silva a top-five victory in his third division. Those two potentially historic matchups are joined on the main card by Amir Sadollah’s latest attempt to get his UFC run started, Kendall Grove and Ricardo Almeida looking to move up at the other’s expense and a lightweight tussle between Kurt Pellegrino and Josh Neer.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

UFC Lightweight Championship

B.J. Penn (13-5-1) vs. Kenny Florian (11-3)

The Breakdown: Now that the MMA blogosphere has gotten over the manufactured controversy of “Greasegate,” Penn will finally return to the business of defending the lightweight title against the number one contender. Florian will try for a second time to capture the title that eluded him against Sean Sherk at UFC 64. An infinitely improved version of the fighter that Sherk overwhelmed awaits Penn, as Florian’s physical and technical ability have finally caught up to his will to win. More important, however, will be how Florian game plans for Penn’s freakish versatility and elite jiu-jitsu skills.

Thus far, Florian has found success by picking at opponents on the feet and eventually overwhelming them on the mat with both submissions and strikes. That will prove problematic against Penn, who has proven near impossible to take down and lethal from virtually any position on the mat. While seeking out a kickboxing match may seem like a viable strategy for Florian, both Joe Stevenson and Sean Sherk tried that approach and paid for it with equal parts pain and plasma. Considering Penn’s reliance on pure talent to guide him through matches, Florian will have to lean on his tactical mind to stay one step ahead of him. Going right after Penn and hoping for the best may be his only other option. In that case, the best for which Florian could hope would be to head home with his limbs intact.

The X Factor: The only proven way to beat Penn is to frustrate him with a sound game plan and hope for his will or cardio to buckle. After watching Penn’s current lightweight run, it has become clear that he has resolved his past conditioning issues. What remains is an undeniably talented fighter with a mercurial personality who seems convinced he can coast to victory against virtually anyone. If nothing else, Florian will make Penn work for the win; that’s the first step to beating him.

The Bottom Line: Florian is undoubtedly the top contender to Penn’s crown, but the more I think about it, the more I believe he has no real chance against Penn. There is not a grappler in the division who can beat Penn on the mat, and Penn’s striking has been a revelation of late. This will not be as terribly one-sided as Penn’s previous lightweight scraps, thanks to Florian’s cerebral style, but that will only prolong a foregone conclusion. Penn delivers another vintage performance by putting Florian away with his trademark rear-naked choke late in the third round.

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Marcelo Alonso/Sherdog.com

Anderson Silva (24-4) vs. Forrest Griffin (16-5)

The Breakdown: After watching Georges St. Pierre and Fedor Emelianenko bolster their claims to pound-for-pound supremacy, Silva now has a chance to perhaps put the debate to rest with his latest foray into the 205-pound realm. It comes against Griffin, the division’s former champion. With his own status in the division at stake, Griffin can ill afford a misstep against a middleweight who has yet to prove his worth at a weight “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 1 winner was once poised to rule over. Keeping that in mind, Griffin has to use his size advantage to tax Silva’s cardio, as his usual striking strategy would serve as a competitive death sentence against the precision-tuned violence Silva brings to the cage. While Silva has been more conservative than Glenn Beck lately, he only needs a willing dance partner to return to his Baryshnikov-meets-Manson routine.

Griffin’s best bet is to get Silva on his back and force him to work for every point he gets. Given the size disparity involved here, it may only be a matter of time before Silva’s conditioning literally breaks under Griffin’s weight. Although Silva’s guard is hardly useless, trying to make up the size difference with skill will be a dicey proposition, considering Griffin’s ground game remains the ace he keeps up his sleeve. All told, most of Griffin’s success is owed to his strict game planning and borderline masochistic dedication to the gym. Whether or not you can prepare for Silva in the gym is the question Griffin will have on his mind come fight time.

The X Factor: In his light heavyweight debut, Silva starched James Irvin like a cheap shirt and put to rest the notion that his power would abandon him in his move up the weight ladder. That should concern Griffin, who may be tougher than an IRS audit but does not have the chin to hold up under heavy fire. If you’re going to beat Silva, you cannot expect to shut down his offense completely, which means proving you can survive an exchange without some involuntary rhinoplasty. Everyone knows Griffin is a willing participant, but his chin does not match his heart.

The Bottom Line: This will not be easy one way or the other. Silva’s striking is too slick to be stymied, and Griffin’s combination of learned versatility and rugged physicality is designed to shut down opponents. Griffin, however, has never had to shut down someone at Silva’s level. The Brazilian seems to unveil a new facet of his game whenever he needs it most. That sort of offensive brilliance is what will tip this fight in Silva’s favor, as he will silence his critics with a vintage performance that leaves Griffin in a heap and fans reversing field yet again. It’s all in a day’s work for MMA’s premier athlete and Michael Jackson impersonator.

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Photo Courtesy: UFC.com

Amir Sadollah (1-0) vs. Johny Hendricks (5-0)

The Breakdown: After more than a year on the shelf thanks to a staph infection and broken clavicle, Sadollah will finally start his welterweight run. It will come against Team Takedown’s high-ceiling wrestling convert, Hendricks, in a fight reminiscent of Sadollah’s brief, one-sided rivalry with CB Dollaway.

Much like Dollaway, Hendricks’ obvious talent has masked his glaring flaws, which include a surprising vulnerability in the clinch and questionable cardio. Both of those flaws are tailor-made for Sadollah to exploit, as the Thai plum remains a cornerstone of his offense and he excels at outlasting opponents. Even if Hendricks has developed professional-level cardio, his game is all about top control, and one has to wonder if he has the submission defense to cut it in the cage.

The X Factor: With most of his experience coming on the wrestling mats, the tendency might be to think Hendricks’ best hope is a top control special. However, neophyte wrestlers are notoriously easy marks on the mat, and Sadollah has the kind of natural instincts that make him composed well beyond his years. One weapon Hendricks does wield is an uppercut he swings like Mjolnir, and despite Sadollah’s skill on the feet, no one knows if he has the chin to match. For all his flaws, Hendricks has the raw power to turn any fight on its head, and he’s proven before that he knows how to make the scorecards as relevant as a Corey Haim movie.

The Bottom Line: Just a year ago, Team Takedown was heralded as a revolutionary force in MMA, but, after some high-profile miscues from its premier fighters, Hendricks is basically the last man standing in his once powerful crew. That will not last much longer, as Sadollah’s year on the shelf has only given him more time to work on his game with the top-tier trainers at Xtreme Couture and acclimate to the cut down to welterweight. Neither of those factors bode well for Hendricks, who will end up on the wrong end in this one. Sadollah will eventually put his prey away with an armbar late in the second round.

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File Photo

Ricardo Almeida (10-3) vs. Kendall Grove (10-5, 1 NC)

The Breakdown: Two of the UFC’s most talented and enigmatic middleweights will meet when Grove, the skyscraping Hawaiian, takes on Brazilian jiu-jitsu virtuoso Almeida. Unfortunately for Almeida, his wrestling and striking have become permanent works in progress, while Grove’s absurd wingspan and striking make him a force to be reckoned with both inside and outside the pocket.

While Almeida has no qualms about pulling guard, he will have to step inside Grove’s considerable range and risk getting caught in a clinch, as well. Those are two scenarios Almeida’s brain cells hope to avoid. Even if he does manage a takedown, after whiffing on the mat against Patrick Cote and Matt Horwich, one has to wonder if Almeida’s extended layoff has taken some of the edge off his game.

The X Factor: Grove is undoubtedly grateful that his porcelain chin will be safe for once, as Almeida’s striking has proven equal parts uncoordinated and unrefined. With that said, an elite grappler is still dangerous against any breed of fighter. Considering Grove’s style is built around getting up close and wearing down opponents with elbows and knees, he will have to balance his aggression with caution or risk making the one mistake Almeida needs to give him the hangman treatment. Grove’s spindly legs are a prime target for a well-timed shot, and Almeida needs only one to find the mark to turn this fight into a new chapter in his highlight reel.

The Bottom Line: Once upon a time, Almeida walked away from MMA as the world’s premier middleweight. Five years later, he’s no longer the jiu-jitsu boogeyman he once was and his standing in the division has taken a hit. He won’t find any relief against Grove, who will work a disciplined clinch-centric game plan en route to a mostly one-sided decision win that will leave Almeida’s ledger with a fresh loss and his face with the evidence to prove it.

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Photo Courtesy: UFC.com

Josh Neer (25-7-1) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (13-4)

The Breakdown: Lost in the shuffle on a top-heavy card, the lightweight dustup between Pellegrino and Neer is the odds-on favorite for “Fight of the Night” honors. While Neer’s combination of physicality and technical savvy has made him a nightmare for opponents, Pellegrino has no back down in him; that borderline reckless style seems to only enhance his already considerable skill set.

Striking the right balance against Neer will be critical, as Pellegrino will be the smaller man on fight night. As evidenced in Neer’s bout with Mac Danzig, going toe to toe with him does not appear to be the wisest route. Pellegrino has shown that rare blend of grappling and ground-and-pound, just as Neer has throughout his UFC run. Who buckles first under the pressure of a guaranteed firefight comes down to who has the cardio to fuel his Rocky Balboa routine.

The X Factor: It is no secret that Neer is the lightweight division’s answer to Lou Ferrigno. While Pellegrino has the game to keep pace with him, he will give up a lot of size to Neer in what shapes up to be a rugged bout. The toll may be too much for Pellegrino, who needs to have enough left in the tank to hold his own in the latter stages. If Neer can use his size advantage to force the issue with Pellegrino, “Batman” may not make it that far. Of course, Pellegrino also has to worry about keeping his jaw and nose from switching places.

The Bottom Line: Though this fight has the potential to turn great, it will not take long to realize Pellegrino is fighting a losing battle. Neer has the edge on the feet with his reach and power, and his ground game is vastly underrated in comparison to Pellegrino. He will have to get past Neer’s thunder and find a way to take down his oversized quarry before he can get anything done. Pellegrino will not last long enough to reach that point, as Neer survives a back-and-forth first round before starching “Batman” midway through the second.

Thursday, August 06, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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As usual, the undercard of UFC 101 is short on the big names that the main card is delivering, but it makes up for it with compelling matches featuring a heady mix of veterans, prospects and everything in between. Leading the fistic pack is a rematch between Shane Nelson and Aaron Riley and the return of Tamdan McCrory, who is fresh off another one of his “man spurts.” Don’t take that turn of phrase literally.

Also on deck is Thales Leites, who will look to rebuild his resume against Italian slugger Alessio Sakara, and a battle of “The Ultimate Fighter” alumni starring Dan Cramer and Matt Riddle’s terrible haircut. In other words, read on and get your knowledge fix in before your inevitable trip to the bookie. Remember, five-fight parlays are never a good idea if you value your thumbs.

Shane Nelson vs. Aaron Riley

The Breakdown: After their first dustup ended prematurely thanks to a controversial stoppage benefitting Nelson, Riley gets his chance to set things right by turning Nelson’s jaw inside out. Easier said than done, as Nelson has looked solid in the UFC and will come out knowing full well that his spot is up for grabs. What he won’t be ready for is Riley’s versatility and wrestling edge, which will keep Nelson scrambling to find offense of his own while fending off a very grumpy Indiana boy.

The X Factor: While Riley has always been known as a banger, his best success comes when he uses his full breadth of skills to keep opponents off balance. After taking a nonsense TKO loss to Nelson, Riley will want to prove a point on the feet even though it may just leave him open to whatever Nelson wants to do. If Riley comes out looking to get his Mike Tyson on, he may well win, but it could just as easily cost him the fight.

The Bottom Line: Something tells me Nelson won’t be ready for the seven shades of pissed off that Riley will be rocking come fight time. With UFC careers on the line, the veteran Riley will press Nelson from the opening bell and put all the pressure on him. Sooner or later, Nelson will figure out he’s out of his depth and Riley will drive that point across Nelson’s chin with a senses-shattering right cross in the third round.

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File Photo

Tamdan McCrory vs. John Howard

The Breakdown: One of the best style clashes on a stacked card, Howard is basically a tank with fists while McCrory’s praying mantis frame belies his surprising power and skill. The key to how this bout will unfold is Howard’s solution for dealing with the almost preposterous height and reach disadvantage he is faced with. Crowding McCrory may seem like the solution, but the New York native has a nasty clinch game and his mat game has steadily improved throughout his UFC run. While Howard certainly has the skill to beat McCrory, you have to wonder if he has the gas tank and game plan to put it all together.

The X Factor: The one aspect of McCrory’s game that every fighter will look to zone in on is his guard, and Howard’s explosive ground-and-pound will force McCrory to prove himself one way or another. Unless McCrory has shored up his guard game, he’ll be operating at a major disadvantage against Howard, who will have no qualms about pounding on him.

The Bottom Line: No longer a beanpole with some striking, McCrory has grown into a titanic welterweight with a diverse skill set while Howard is basically a one-note fighter who relies on overpowering opponents. That won’t play against McCrory, who gets the better of the fight by dominating the striking and showing some new game on the ground. After his post-fight interview, expect McCrory to have another growth spurt and announce a new career as an NBA center.

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Stephen Martinez/Sherdog.com

Thales Leites vs. Alessio Sakara

The Breakdown: Originally slated to take on Rousimar “Half-man/Half-cinder block” Palhares, it looks as if Sakara is still being set up for a submission scalping against another mat shark in Leites. While Sakara certainly has the striking to keep Leites at bay, he doesn’t have the wrestling to stave off the takedowns that will inevitably come his way. Given Leites’ sturdy chin and surprising arsenal of judo throws, Sakara is going to need something more than one-two combos and feints to escape getting the human pretzel treatment.

The X Factor: For a guy with a Nova Uniao black belt pedigree, Leites makes more bad decisions than Kanye West does in an entire year. Inside the cage, Leites’ mistake of choice has been getting into far too many striking exchanges, which amounts to handing his opponents a chance to even up the score. Sakara knows how to land a kill-shot, and his hand speed makes a fight-ending flurry a real concern for anyone wandering into his wheelhouse.

The Bottom Line: Unless Sakara can hire out a hypnotist to make Leites think he’s showing up for a kickboxing match, you’re looking at a fight that will be surprising only if Sakara can make it past the two-minute mark. Either way, Sakara is in trouble and could eventually find himself on the mat with a joint or two pointing in the wrong direction. I’m really hoping this is the fight I finally see someone bust out the back mount to camel clutch transition; everyone knows the Iron Sheik meant for that move to be used in MMA someday.

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Photo Courtesy: UFC.com

Matt Riddle vs. Dan Cramer

The Breakdown: This is one of those fights between young prospects who happen to be mirror images of each other. Both Cramer and Riddle are ginormous welterweights who make up for their inexperience with paralyzing ground-and-pound. The difference is that Riddle happens to be the much better fighter despite his Gotti boy haircut. Come fight time, Cramer will have to negotiate Riddle’s superior wrestling and conditioning while steering clear of any brain scramblers Riddle unloads on the feet. Just in case you’re waiting for a riddle pun, I’m letting you know now it’s not happening.

The X Factor: After a middling run on “The Ultimate Fighter,” Riddle has been a revelation in his first two UFC bouts and is looking like a future welterweight contender. The weight of expectations is the only variable we haven’t seen Riddle overcome, and with the whispers growing louder over his bright future, you have to wonder how a 23-year-old kid will handle going from afterthought to blue-chipper in such short order. Thus far, Riddle’s success has been built on flawless preparation and in-cage execution, but if he starts buying too much stock in his own talent, he could easily go from pleasant surprise to cautionary tale via Mr. Cramer’s fists.

The Bottom Line: While prospects get fed to the genetically engineered super-lions of the UFC, Riddle is getting deluxe treatment and it will show as he treats Cramer like a showcase opponent. Expect Riddle to wear him down with suffocating top control and strikes before putting him away with a kimura late in the second round. Let’s just hope that Riddle doesn’t show up to the cage ever again looking like he stuck his finger in an electrical socket.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

George Sotiropoulos vs. George Roop

The Breakdown: Let’s be honest here: Roop got a coin-flip decision over Dave Kaplan in his last bout and beyond some solid striking, doesn’t have much to offer. While Sotiropoulos is coming in on short notice, his strong jiu-jitsu base and Roop’s own shoddy wrestling make for an ideal combination if you’re looking to plunk down your rent money on the Aussie submission ace. Of course, there’s always the chance the laws of reality will bend, creating a probability vortex and allowing Roop to win.

The X Factor: Discounting any scenarios out of an episode of “Lost,” Roop is the better striker. Outside of a solid clinch game, Sotiropoulos is hardly a dynamo on the feet. With the superior striking and footwork to his name, Roop could outpoint Sotiropoulos from afar, but he’ll have to worry about over-working his SUV-level gas tank. It’s a difficult balance to strike, and notching a win one way or another won’t be easy.

The Bottom Line: A few dicey moments on the feet early on for Sotiropoulos will eventually give way to a clinical dissection of Roop on the mat. This is the part where you do the “Aussie, Aussie, Aussie” chant.

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Photo Courtesy: UFC.com

Jesse Lennox vs. Danillo Villefort

The Breakdown: A clash between Lennox’s ground-and-pound game and Villefort’s quicksilver jiu-jitsu rounds out the undercard in a bout that will likely decide what future these two WEC castaways will have in the UFC. Just how willing Lennox will be to tangle with Villefort on the mat will have a lot to do with how this bout goes, as Lennox has the striking to put Villefort down. Just as important will be Villefort’s willingness to step inside Lennox’s range in search of a takedown; it represents his best and likely only hope.

The X Factor: Looking up and down Lennox’s ledger, his loss to Emyr Bussade via kneebar in the IFL is a major red flag considering Villefort’s love for the leglock. You can bank on Villefort making a few kamikaze dives at Lennox’s legs, and he’s more than capable of turning them into b-grade origami. Lennox can keep his legs safe by staying upright, but he likes to test the water on the mat before resorting to plan B. Testing the waters with Villefort could leave Lennox looking like an extra from “Murderball.”

The Bottom Line: Solid as Lennox may be, his game isn’t built to handle Villefort, who will press him from the opening bell with submission attempts. Don’t be surprised if Lennox holds his own for a while, but Villefort will keep dragging him to the mat until he snatches hold of a limb and gets Lennox to play the three-tap symphony.