FEDOR IN STRIKEFORCE SATURDAY
Wednesday, November 4th, 2009Wednesday, November 04, 2009
by (trios@sherdog.com)
Strikeforce/M-1 Global “Fedor vs. Rogers” will stare down the UFC and draw its line in the sand this Saturday, as heavyweight kingpin Fedor Emelianenko anchors the promotion’s CBS debut from the Sears Centre Arena in Hoffman Estates, Ill. In making such a stand, it helps to have the most indestructible Russian since Rasputin by your side, along with an opponent who looks like a mutated version of Mr. T.
Besides the must-see intrigue that comes with Emelianenko stepping into a cage against Brett Rogers, the night will see Strikeforce crown a middleweight champion when jiu-jitsu demigod Jake Shields takes on Jason “Mayhem” Miller. Though light heavyweight champion Gegard Mousasi will not put his strap on the line in his bout with Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou, anytime guys nicknamed “The Dreamcatcher” and “The African Assassin” fight, we owe it to ourselves to watch.
Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers
The Breakdown: More than six years into his reign as the T-1000 of the heavyweight class, Emelianenko faces a familiar challenge in Rogers — a ginormous brawler blessed with the punching power needed to starch a cyborg emperor. However, putting fist to face appears to be the only threat Rogers poses to Emelianenko, who has a whole toolbox of skills thanks to his legendary international Sambo career, as well as the kind of ground-and-pound that can give the heartiest onlooker a migraine.
If anything works in Rogers’ favor, it could be that Emelianenko seems to go along with whatever his opponent wants to do out of an almost reckless confidence that he can succeed in any situation. It has yet to cost him a fight, but it has gotten him in trouble before, and Rogers only needs one punch and one mistake to precede it to leave lots of bookies in tears.
Considering both fighters rely on wide looping punches, the openings will be there for both men to play shatter the skull. Of course, this assumes Emelianenko does not drag Rogers to the mat and dismantle him like a stack of Legos. Although no one has seen Rogers’ ground game, it seems safe to assume that he will not do anything except tap out if Emelianenko pulls him into the deep end of the pool.
The X-Factor: Emelianenko has weaknesses, but his opponents always end up laid out before they get a chance to do anything except look overmatched. Rogers does have the ability to exploit Emelianenko’s mediocre chin, but that means putting himself right in the Russian’s wheelhouse.
Rogers certainly will not be afraid to collapse the pocket, but no heavyweight can walk through Emelianenko’s punches. Taking a few of those shots will be the price of admission for Rogers.
The Bottom Line: Everyone from Andrei Arlovski to Semmy Schilt had a striker’s chance against Emelianenko, and they all discovered why they were better off leaving the quiet, dead-eyed Russian alone. That lesson that will be written across Rogers’ face, as well, as Emelianenko takes advantage of his aggression and greets him with an overhand right midway through the opening stanza.
James Meinhardt/Sherdog.com
Strikeforce Middleweight Championship
Jake Shields vs. Jason “Mayhem” Miller
The Breakdown: Thanks to Cung Le’s Hollywood B-movie dreams, Shields and Miller now get the chance to settle up for the vacant middleweight title. The match itself essentially comes down to a case of two grapplers, with one, Shields, being markedly better than the other. Miller, however, has proven slick and even managed to keep his limbs and airways intact after 15 minutes on the mat with Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza.
By the same token, Miller was thoroughly dominated in that bout, and Shields presents the same problems as “Jacare.” A superior wrestler who remains vastly underappreciated as an elite jiu-jitsu player, Shields has suddenly developed a mean streak after spending most of his career as an anthropomorphized blanket. That combination of stultifying top control and newfound killer instinct will make life painfully difficult for Miller, whose appeal to the state commission for quality of entrance to be included in the judging criteria was denied.
The X-Factor: If you want to point to a weakness in Shields’ game, historically, it has been his conditioning. To be fair, Shields has not been the type of fighter who starts gasping for air halfway through the introductions, but he does fade late in fights if his opponent can force him to work from the opening bell.
Miller has proven himself as active as any fighter in MMA, and he has become borderline impossible to stop thanks to his own masochistic love of punishment. Fighting someone who can smile through a dislocated elbow seems like an unsettling experience, and if Shields cannot keep up with Miller, he will discover he is not the only grappler out there who likes twisting limbs and smashing faces.
The Bottom Line: This looks like a bad matchup for Miller. Worse yet, his army of Mayhem Monkeys will not be allowed to pull a Bobby Heenan and save him when the going gets rough. Nasty will be the adjective that best describes this fight, as Shields muscles down Miller early and batters him every step of the way. Sooner or later, the referee’s compassion switch will flip, and Miller’s grill will live to bling again.
Stephen Martinez/Sherdog.com
hands high against Mousasi.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
The Breakdown: In a non-title tilt, Mousasi will look to continue his successful segue to the 205-pound class against the Cameroonian Predator. Once thought to be the division’s top blue-chip prospect, Sokoudjou’s obscene physical talent has long been overshadowed by cardio roughly on par with that of a pack-a-day smoker.
Worse yet, Mousasi’s striking has proven far more polished and his submission skill renders Sokoudjou’s judo throws inconsequential. Everyone has been waiting for years for Sokoudjou to jump on the treadmill, but in this fight, he will need strategic savvy that will not come from a few hours on the track every day.
The X-Factor: For the first few minutes of any fight, Sokoudjou can best be described as hell on wheels. While Mousasi excels in fast-paced fights, Sokoudjou only needs to find a home for a straight right to relive his upset streak in Pride Fighting Championships. If nothing else, Sokoudjou will get the pace he wants from Mousasi. Whether he gets the result he wants will depend on whether or not this fight turns into another showcase for his flaws.
The Bottom Line: Any concerns about Mousasi’s transition to light heavyweight were silenced when he demolished Renato “Babalu” Sobral in a minute flat. Meanwhile, Sokoudjou has been floundering in the Dream Super Hulk tournament after getting smacked down by the leading men at light heavyweight. Watch for Sokoudjou to come out with customary guns blazing and promptly run into a knockout courtesy of a Mousasi head kick.
Daniel Herbertson/Sherdog.com
Antonio Silva vs. Fabricio Werdum
The Breakdown: Werdum remains the more well-regarded of the two, having spent years as a top heavyweight contender with an unfortunate habit of timing his losses poorly. Meanwhile, Silva, a huge guy with some skill, basically receives way more credit than he should for being a huge guy with some skill.
The difference in size will not be particularly pronounced, as Werdum will only give up some weight to Silva, who has to worry about his foe’s all-universe jiu-jitsu. While Silva’s striking may be considered an advantage, Werdum has made strides with his own muay Thai, and he has effectively navigated his way to wins over supposedly superior strikers before. Unless Silva can keep this fight upright and bully around Werdum, set your timer to tapout because it will not take long for the UFC veteran to expose Silva.
The X-Factor: The deciding factor in this fight will likely be Silva’s takedown defense, which has proven surprisingly weak for a guy who should be able to smother anyone looking to outmuscle him. Werdum’s wrestling can hardly be described as an asset, but he only needs a single takedown to completely outclass Silva. How the wrestling clash plays out will be the variable on which this fight hinges.
The Bottom Line: Title eliminators are supposed to be competitive, but this fight will show just how short Strikeforce remains on quality heavyweights, as Werdum makes Silva look like a rank amateur. A few early fireworks on the feet will end abruptly, as Werdum snags an easy single-leg and promptly cinches a submission on Silva.
Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
Marloes Coenen vs. Roxanne Modafferi
After losing Erin Toughill to injury, Strikeforce managed to line up Modafferi — another fighter who has already beaten Coenen. A jack of all trades, Modaferri can force Coenen, who relies heavily on her jiu-jitsu, to step outside of her comfort zone. Expect a close fight, but Modafferi will take another nip/tuck decision win from her Dutch rival.
After flunking out of World Extreme Cagefighting, Curran gets a chance to rebound against Neace — and rebound he will. A journeyman who never quite escaped that casting, Neace finds himself in the unenviable position of being a solid grappler taking on an opponent who has proven himself vastly superior in that regard. An entertaining bit of back-and-forth on the mats ends with Curran tying Neace into a not-so-pretty package.
After some time on the shelf, Miller makes his return to the game against Davis. In keeping with the generally uncompetitive tone of the undercard, Miller has been lined up for a reasonably easy win. Davis has not been fond of working off his back and Miller will plant him there time and time again. On the ground, the disparity in offensive ability will become even more obvious. A thorough thrashing against Davis will reignite Miller’s career.
Christian Uflacker vs. Jonatas Novaes
The jiu-jitsu special of the night matches the inexperienced but well-hyped Uflacker against fellow Brazilian submission specialist Novaes. Expect Uflacker to ace Novaes on the mats. As the flat-out better grappler of the two, Uflacker will find an all-too-willing partner in Novaes, and he will be all-too willing to make him a quality addition to the old highlight reel.
John Kolosci vs. Shamar Bailey
A castoff from “The Ultimate Fighter,” Kolosci was slotted against Bailey in a bout for a spot in Strikeforce’s surging middleweight division. While many fans love Kolosci’s All-American work ethic, Bailey has proven the more talented of the two and only gives up experience to his counterpart. Watch for Bailey to swarm Kolosci from the opening bell and eventually overwhelm him late with a torrent of ground-and-pound.
Take Taylor, an unbeaten Adrenaline MMA veteran with a pair of first-round finishes to his credit, in a meeting between two anonymous prospects. Taylor was a former Eastern Illinois University wrestling standout; Moore wrestled alongside Jon Fitch at Purdue University and now trains with him at the American Kickboxing Academy.