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Archive for February, 2009

PRO FIGHTERS PREDICTIONS FOR UFC 95 - SANCHEZ v STEVENSON

Friday, February 20th, 2009

Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez and Joe “Daddy” Stevenson climb into the cage Saturday in London for the main event of UFC 95.

Stevenson is coming off a loss to Kenny Florian and has dropped two of his last three. A loss at the hands of Sanchez will knock him even farther down the lightweight ladder, but a win could keep him in the hunt.

Sanchez will also be looking for a victory in what will be his lightweight debut. It’s a solid matchup between two winners of “The Ultimate Fighter,” and Sherdog.com spoke with dozens of fighters and trainers to see which pugilist the pros are picking:

Randy Couture: This is a great matchup. Both guys have had up and down performances. I give the nod to Joe Stevenson. His striking and wrestling skills are a notch better than Diego’s. I think that’ll be enough to put Joe on top. It has the potential to be the fight of the night if these two are on.

Kit Cope: This is one of the best matchups possible, provided that Diego doesn’t think he’s a boxer again. It could go one of two ways: a phenomenal, high-paced grappling match ending in a close decision for Diego or both men nullifying the takedown attempts of the other and Diego edging out Joe in an improved striking game.

Jaime Fletcher: Joe Stevenson is from (the Inland Empire in California) like me, so I’ll be rooting for him. I think Diego has the tools to beat Joe, and his conditioning is never a question. Also with him coming down from 170, he should have a size advantage as well. That being said, I think Diego will win, but Joe could pull out a sub. Front choke, baby, yeah!

Duke Roufus: Joe Daddy wins via a better-rounded game.

Travis Wiuff: I like Diego in this one. He’s had some rough losses, so I think that plus the change in weight classes will bring in a more improved Diego Sanchez. Never seen either fighter in a boring fight, so should be an exciting fight.

Joe Lambert: Joe (by) TKO.

Marvin Eastman: Sanchez by decision.

 

Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com


The pros pick Diego Sanchez.

Pete Sell: Diego looked impressive (in) his last fight. He stepped his game up, and that was at 170. At 155 he will be bigger, so I got to go with Diego by knockout.

Scott Bieri: Damn. This is like school: It’s hard and I get the answers wrong.

Mike Dolce: This is a tough one for me since I’m really trying to protect my streak here. If you remember, I correctly picked Rampage to KO Wanderlei in the first round, Mir to upset Nogueira and even St. Pierre to TKO Penn in round four. Too bad I’m not a betting man! But for this fight at the O2 Arena, I’ll be sitting cageside watching it all unfold and something tells me even with that close vantage point, I still may not be able to pick a clear winner. Both guys are ground wizards capable of show-stopping submissions at any moment. Each possesses an improving striking game, which I’d score as even. Diego gets the nod as the better wrestler and is typically more conditioned, but 155 is Stevenson’s home and Sanchez is just popping down for a visit … possibly a very costly one. This could be the deciding factor in the fight: Diego’s “nightmarish” weight cut. Trust me, I used to weigh 280 pounds and now fight at 170, and I gotta tell you, once I lost 42 pounds in six weeks, made my weight, rehydrated up to 202 and fought like crap. I never got my legs under me and couldn’t get going in the fight. There’s a myriad of adverse physiological reactions going on when a human dehydrates himself to such a point, and no matter how well thought the plan, it really is a crapshoot. That being said, I’m going to give the edge to Stevenson by unanimous decision. He’s used to the weight class and only has to fight Diego on February 21. Sanchez, on the other hand, has been battling the scale for the past six weeks and may not have enough left in the tank to give “Daddy” a “Nightmare” of a night.

Eddy Millis: I have Diego by submission.

Nick Thompson: Diego will outwork Stevenson. Stevenson will gas, and Diego will submit him (near) the end of (the second).

Shawn Tompkins: I think Diego is gonna be a beast at 155 pounds if he can handle the weight cut. Joe Stevenson is slick on the ground, but Sanchez has been there many times. I see this fight as a three-round decision for Diego Sanchez.

Cung Le: Diego wins but has to go the distance.

Mike Whitehead: Joe by decision! Go Joe Daddy!

Elvis Sinosic: Should be an interesting fight. Both guys have strong wrestling. Both have solid grappling skills. I think Diego has the better standup. Look for Diego to push standing. I think this will go to the ground and become a grappling match. Diego is better whether on top or off his back. Look for Diego to win this match, possibly even by decision.

Kevin Burns: I think Joe Daddy will be victorious in this fight. It’s the first time we’ll have a chance to see Diego deal with the weight cut. I see the fight going to the ground early.

Rick Roufus: I met Joe. He’s a great guy, but I think Diego’s too big and too strong. (Diego will) out-muscle him, out-strike him and he’s better on the ground with wrestling and he’ll be able to manhandle him. Diego by KO.

Patrick Cote: I’m going with Diego. He was fast and explosive at 170, (and) at 155 he will be a very, very tough opponent.

Gabe Ruediger: Not too sure. Diego looked good at 170 and Joe is a very tough competitor. Both have good wrestling and ground. I think this might be one of those fights where they nullify each other. I’ll go with Diego because I honestly don’t know.

Stephane Vigneault: I think Sanchez is scared of GSP and Thiago Alves, and that’s why he dropped down a weight class. But at 155, he is the kind of guy who can give a hard time to BJ Penn. A rematch with Florian, that is what I want (to see). (Diego) is gonna beat Stevenson by TKO or submission.

Tom Gavrilos: I have to give the edge to Diego on this. Joe is a very well-rounded fighter, a great fighter, but I feel he will be limited by his reach. If the fight goes to the ground, where reach is less of a factor, I still believe he will have trouble controlling and/or finishing Diego there. I look forward to this fight. It’s hard to stop Joe, as he can take a punch and has so much heart. Overall I have to choose Diego by decision in this one.

Jamie Varner: I agree (with Gavrilos).

Stav Economou: I’m going with Diego Sanchez on this one. I just don’t see a way that Joe Stevenson could win. Sanchez will be too big and too strong for Joe Daddy to handle. Expect to see “The Nightmare” win a unanimous decision.

Michael Guymon: Very evenly matched guys on this fight. Great jiu-jitsu matchup for sure, but I see the standup being an issue. This is where Joe, I think, will edge this one out. But what the hell do I know? The last few picks I had got killed. Maybe I’m dyslexic.

Brad Blackburn: First off, I think that Joe Stevenson and Diego Sanchez are both really good fighters and this fight could go either way. I would give an edge to Diego because of his standup and being able to match or beat Joe on the ground. But like I always say, a fight’s a fight. Anything can happen.

Pros who picked Sanchez: 18
Pros who picked Stevenson: 7
Pros who couldn’t pick a winner: 1

UFC 95 ON SATURDAY - MAIN CARD

Wednesday, February 18th, 2009

The O2 Arena in London is rapidly becoming a European Mecca of MMA. UFC 95 on Saturday is just another example of why.

Besides featuring the lightweight debut of Diego Sanchez against a fellow “TUF” champion in Joe Stevenson, the main card is crammed with quality pugilistic goodness. Whether it is the return of silky smooth jiu-jitsu impresario Demian Maia or the middleweight tussle between contenders Nate Marquardt and Wilson Gouveia, you’re looking at a card with intrigue and long-term implications.

 

Photo by Sherdog.com


Can Stevenson get his
career back on track?

Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Stevenson

Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’11/155 lbs.
Age: 27
Hometown: Albuquerque, N.M.
Fighting out of: San Diego
Record: 19-2

The breakdown: As much as Diego Sanchez is known for his dynamic guard, the key to beating Joe Stevenson has always been to force him to work from his own guard. While it’s no secret that Stevenson’s top game is a rare blend of savage striking and brute-force submissions, most of his offense off his back consists of going for leg locks or guillotine chokes — neither of which will get you far against Sanchez.

However, Sanchez has never been known for his wrestling. While his striking has made strides, it would be a stretch to assume he can both resist Stevenson’s takedowns and outclass him on the feet. What Sanchez needs to do is force a hectic pace on Stevenson, who has always had trouble with his conditioning. Even if Sanchez struggles early on, forcing Stevenson to fight at meth-freak speed will eventually allow Sanchez to seize the upper hand.

The X factor: Weight cutting is as common as it is unpredictable in modern MMA, and everyone is wondering how Sanchez will acclimate to his new home in the lightweight division. The answer to that question will likely decide if Sanchez’s drop in weight will join New Coke and the XFL in the pantheon of bad ideas.

Joe “Daddy” Stevenson Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’7/155 lbs.
Age: 26
Hometown: Torrance, Calif.
Fighting out of: Victorville, Calif.
Record: 29-9

The breakdown: The key to beating Sanchez has always been to control him, and mastering that strategy is what Stevenson must focus on. Unfortunately, we’ve seen Stevenson show up with some sorry strategies in recent bouts with B.J. Penn and Kenny Florian. Not coincidentally, both bouts ended with Stevenson taking a one-sided loss. Approaching Sanchez from a cerebral point of view is the only way Stevenson will reverse his trend of big-fight blowups.

Step one will be to take Sanchez down and establish a strong base while using measured ground-and-pound to keep him occupied. Simply lying on top of Sanchez will get you tapped out, but Stevenson’s ground-and-pound from the guard is criminally underrated and he’ll have to make it the lynchpin of his strategy. Otherwise, we may see Stevenson revive the ill-fated “KI-YA!” strategy that got him shredded at UFC 91.

The X factor: Stopping Sanchez proved impossible for the litany of welterweights he faced, and that isn’t likely to change now that Sanchez is a lightweight. Besides coming in with a sound strategy, Stevenson has to be ready to go the full 15 minutes or risk leaving the window open for a repeat of past mistakes.

* * *

 

The bottom line: Stevenson will always be one of the better lightweights around, but he hasn’t shown the fight IQ or conditioning to make a breakthrough. Sanchez’s decision to drop in weight will finally give him a chance to shine in a division where he won’t be physically outmatched by ginormous wrestlers. Expect a zen performance from Sanchez and a punishing victory.

 

Stephen Martinez/Sherdog.com


Hardy will have the
hometown crowd behind him.

Dan Hardy vs. Rory Markham

Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’0/170 lbs.
Age: 26
Hometown: Nottingham, England
Fighting out of: Nottingham, England
Record: 20-6 (1 NC)

The breakdown: After using the power of his red rooster Mohawk to notch a split decision over Akihiro Gono, Hardy’s return to the Octagon comes against another talented striker in Rory Markham. A banger par excellence, Markham’s rugged style is something Hardy needs to avoid matching, as he favors a more long-distance approach that emphasizes his strong kicks and lengthy reach. Keeping Markham on the end of his strikes and avoiding an out-and-out brawl will be the two things Hardy needs to notch a win for his hometown crowd.

The X factor: Despite looking like a cyberpunk extra on the set of “Bladerunner,” Hardy’s striking style is overtly refined and technical. However, hearing his countrymen calling for a brawl with an opponent who will be all too willing may knock him off course. Keeping the crowd out of his mind will be the first step to Hardy notching another W under the UFC banner.

Rory Markham Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’11/170 lbs.
Age: 26
Hometown: Chicago
Fighting out of: Bettendorf, Iowa
Record: 16-4

The breakdown: After sending Brodie Farber on a one-way trip to vintage KO town, Markham now gets a main card spot albeit against much stiffer opposition. That opposition comes in the form of Hardy, whose long reach and arsenal of kicks makes him a difficult opponent for anyone, especially a brawler like Markham who prefers close-quarters combat. Successfully navigating the pocket and keeping Hardy within reach will be key for Markham, who could easily score an upset if he can force Hardy out of his comfort zone.

The X factor: Markham has had trouble with being at a reach disadvantage, and it will be a pronounced disadvantage against Hardy. Unless Markham comes out willing to close the pocket and take his licks in doing so, you can forget about him adding another insta-classic KO to his ledger.

* * *

 

The bottom line: You’re looking at the odds-on favorite for “Fight of the Night” honors. Markham will look to turn this into a brawl while Hardy tries to pick him apart from afar. Look for Hardy to grab an early advantage and hold onto it throughout, as his reach and superior striking versatility will land him a late KO victory. I just hope the subsequent English euphoria doesn’t lead to the advent of the MMA hooligan.


 

Photo by Sherdog.com


Marquardt will face a
tough test in Gouveia.

Nate Marquardt vs. Wilson Gouveia

Nate “The Great” Marquardt Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’0/185 lbs.
Age: 29
Hometown: Lander, Wyo.
Fighting out of: Denver
Record: 27-8-2

The breakdown: Coming off a trademark performance against Martin Kampmann, Marquardt now gets an even tougher task in Wilson Gouveia, who is coming off an impressive performance of his own against Jason MacDonald. Keeping the versatile Gouveia from employing his offensive dynamism will be key for Marquardt. He must control the terms of the fight to control Gouveia. Using his strong clinch game and top control to wear on Gouveia’s iffy conditioning should be Marquardt’s focus, as Gouveia falters when opponents get in his grill and go to work.

The X factor: Of late, Marquardt has been favoring his striking to great effect, but Gouveia’s reach and leg kicks make him dangerous at range. If Marquardt gambles by going toe-to-toe with Gouveia, he may not have the chance to change strategy before Gouveia leaves him in a heap.

Wilson Gouveia Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’1/185 lbs.
Age: 30
Hometown: Fortaleza, Brazil
Fighting out of: Coconut Creek, Fla.
Record: 12-5

The breakdown: Few fighters in the middleweight division are as dangerous as Marquardt in close quarters, and Gouveia’s style simply does not favor trench wars. With that in mind, the American Top Team product has to control distance by being aggressive with leg kicks, which could rob Marquardt of his strong base. From there, Gouveia could get more aggressive and work in more punches and even some groundwork on a weakened Marquardt. Either way, if Gouveia lets Marquardt crowd him, he will be throwing away his best hope for victory.

The X-Factor: Cardio has always been a concern when Gouveia is involved, and against a mauler like Marquardt, he has to come in ready for an exhausting fight. If Gouveia comes in with his usual five minutes’ worth of cardio, he will end up taking 15 minutes worth of abuse.

* * *

 

The bottom line: As impressive as Gouveia can be in short spurts, he will need a sustained offensive to beat Marquardt; it’s doubtful his cardio holds up very well against the relentless work-rate Marquardt maintains. Bank on Marquardt taking over in the latter stages of the bout and claiming a hard-earned decision.


 

Photo by Sherdog.com


Demian Maia will likely
submit Chael Sonnen.

Demian Maia vs. Chael Sonnen

Demian Maia Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’0/185 lbs.
Age: 31
Hometown: Sao Paulo, Brazil
Fighting out of: Sao Paulo, Brazil
Record: 9-0

The breakdown: As the Talking Heads once said, “it’s the same as it ever was” for Maia, who will face another wrestling convert who cannot handle his Lil’ Wayne-level flow on the mat. Maia needs to be mindful of Sonnen’s rugged ground-and-pound since he will almost certainly be working off his back, given the Team Quest veteran’s superior wrestling background. Keeping Sonnen in either full or half guard and working sweeps while occupying him with submission attempts should be all Maia needs to cement his young money credentials.

The X-Factor: Like any jiu-jitsu virtuoso, Maia falters when his game gets stalled by ground-and-pound, and Sonnen has a measured, stultifying style that has rendered black belts useless. Barring a quick three-tap symphony, Maia will have to survive some rough patches. That’s something of a foreign concept to the undefeated golden boy from Sao Paulo, Brazil.

Chael Sonnen Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’1/185 lbs.
Age: 31
Hometown: Milwaukie, Ore.
Fighting out of: West Linn, Ore.
Record: 21-9-1

The breakdown: Strategically, Sonnen should use his wrestling in reverse to get Maia out of his comfort zone and force some striking to rough him up before moving to the mat. That’s an obvious strategy that Sonnen has ignored in past bouts with transparently superior grapplers. Granted, Sonnen used a smart approach in his rematch with Paulo Filho, but it remains questionable whether or not Filho knew where he was for most of that fight. It’s no secret that going to the mat with a fresh Maia will get you tapped out. Sonnen will not score any knockouts anytime soon, but he needs to wear out Maia on the feet, especially in the clinch, if he plans on ending the Brazilian’s submission jubilee.

The X-Factor: Think of this fight as Sonnen’s own personal fight IQ test. If he happily obliges the second Maia drops for a leg or pulls guard, just hit your stopwatch and see how long it takes Maia to prove his status as a master pretzel maker yet again. Should Sonnen have the sense to realize that being tied in knots is bad for his health, Maia could fall faster than Joaquin Phoenix’s stock.

* * *

 

The bottom line: Banking on Sonnen to work the perfect gameplan against Maia is like relying on Nigerian princes who offer their inheritance via e-mail. In other words, keep dreaming. Watch for Sonnen to give Maia some trouble early on, but the Brazilian’s dogged pursuit of the takedown will eventually force Sonnen to the mat. There, it will be like leading a lamb to slaughter.


 

Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com


This fight will not be pretty.

Josh Koscheck vs. Paulo Thiago

Josh “KOS” Koscheck Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’10/170 lbs.
Age: 31
Hometown: Waynesburg, Pa.
Fighting out of: Fresno, Calif.
Record: 12-3

The breakdown: Grainy, pirated footage of Thiago suggests Koscheck should focus on his Brazilian quarry’s lacking stand-up training. While Thiago does have a solid jiu-jitsu game — which remains a weakness for his opponent — Koscheck has shown a rapidly improving striking arsenal and has the wrestling ability to repel a takedown from virtually any welterweight. As long as Koscheck remains focused and does not hand Thiago a submission, a sequel to his cranium-crunching knockout of Yoshiyuki Yoshida is not out of the question.

The X-Factor: Taking on an unheralded unknown always leaves open the possibility of coming in either out of shape or unfocused. While Koscheck’s Spartan work ethic makes that unlikely, it’s also no secret that the former Div. I wrestling champion’s ego has its own gravitational pull. If that ego gets in the way of Koscheck’s better judgment, he may land himself in a tight situation or even a tight triangle choke.

Paulo Thiago Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’11/170 lbs.
Age: 28
Hometown: Brasilia, Brazil
Fighting out of: Brasilia, Brazil
Record: 10-0

The breakdown: Thiago winning this fight would be more shocking than Chris Brown album sales rising. With that said, Thiago’s strength, his grappling, remains the one aspect of the game Koscheck takes pains to avoid. While Thiago will not score any takedowns, he can change levels and pull guard as soon as Koscheck goes to defend the leg. From there, Thiago needs to avoid Koscheck’s face-peeling ground-and-pound while he searches for a submission.

The X-Factor: Entering the UFC as an undefeated prospect leaves you as just another face in the crowd, and Thiago is leaping from the local scene in Brazil to the bright lights of the Octagon with no stops in between. How those UFC jitters play on Thiago’s psyche will likely decide how he negotiates the almost insurmountable odds with which he’s already faced.

* * *
The bottom line: The UFC appears to be rebuilding Koscheck for a run at the title, and Thiago simply has no business being in the same cage. This will not be pretty, as Koscheck plays “Super Punch-Out” at Thiago’s expense.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT SATURDAY - MAIN CARD

Friday, February 6th, 2009

With the clock ticking towards the Spike TV broadcast of UFC Fight Night 17 this Saturday at the Sun Dome in Tampa, Fla., the main card looks like one of the best to grace our television sets in some time. There are no pound-for-pound stalwarts, but four first-class features await the mixed martial arts faithful.

Joe Lauzon will anchor the bill and match his quicksilver submissions against the tactical nukes the government implanted in Jeremy Stephens’ fists. The return of heavyweight prospect Cain Velasquez backs up the headliners, along with a lightweight tilt between “The Ultimate Fighter 6” winner Mac Danzig and unauthorized dentistry enthusiast Josh Neer.

Main Event
Joe Lauzon vs. Jeremy Stephens

Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’10/155 lbs.
Age: 24
Hometown: East Bridgewater, Mass.
Fighting out of: Bridgewater, Mass.
Record: 17-4

The breakdown: This fight presents some unique challenges for Lauzon. In order to succeed, he has to ditch his multi-faceted style in favor of a more straightforward ground-centric strategy. While Lauzon had success standing against former UFC lightweight champion Jens Pulver, Stephens has the kind of kill-shot power that can turn jaws into jigsaw puzzles. That Lauzon must hone in on the other part of Stephens’ game makes this tall task seem downright Herculean.

While Lauzon certainly has the game to make Stephens play the three-tap symphony, he also needs to corral him by maintaining a strong base on the ground. In his bout with Cole Miller at UFC Fight Night 12, Stephens preyed on Miller’s willingness to surrender position in favor of submissions and eventually used that strategic mistake to cave in Miller’s head. As long as Lauzon stays disciplined and uses positioning to set up his submissions, he will have Stephens’ number.

The X-Factor: Typically, Lauzon stays on his feet until his opponent gives him a reason not to. However, waiting around to see if Stephens will send his head into orbit is not the wisest approach in the world, and it could sound Lauzon’s death knell if he chooses to go that route. Keep a close eye on this one early; if Lauzon does not come out thinking takedown, get ready for a sneak preview of the new “Friday the 13th.”

Jeremy “Lil Heathen” Stephens Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’9/155 lbs.
Age: 22
Hometown: Des Moines, Iowa
Fighting out of: Des Moines, Iowa
Record: 14-3

The breakdown: No one can argue that Stephens has that rare blend of speed, power and sociopathic rage that turns his opponents into knockout victims in the making. However, his takedown defense is about as effective as anything pushed on an infomercial. With that in mind, Stephens has to come in prepared to force Lauzon into scrambles on the mat.

The downside is Lauzon’s penchant for snatching speedy submissions, but Stephens’ striking on the ground is every bit as dangerous as it is standing. Keeping the pressure on Lauzon when he has him standing will be critical for Stephens, along with establishing that he can hurt the Massachusetts native on the ground. In short, Stephens needs to show he can survive in the grappler-heavy lightweight division.

The X-Factor: A short-notice replacement for the injured Hermes Franca, it’s difficult to handicap how Stephens will react to being thrown into the main event without a normal training camp. Stephens is at his best when he goes for broke, so if he appears to err on the side of caution early, start worrying.

* * *

The bottom line: The disparity in the submission and striking departments is obvious, but Stephens’ wrestling remains an Achilles’ heel. That makes it hard to imagine Lauzon would walk right into the lion’s den and hand Stephens his only shot at winning. Instead, Stephens will spend a short evening on the ground, and Lauzon will walk away with another submission skin for his collection.

Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com


Cain Velasquez has his
sights set on Denis Stojnic.

Cain Velasquez vs. Denis Stojnic

Cain Velasquez Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’2/245 lbs.
Age: 26
Hometown: Salinas, Calif.
Fighting out of: San Jose, Calif.
Record: 4-0

The breakdown: Velasquez continues to build a reputation as one of the best heavyweight prospects the UFC has seen in some time. Keeping that status intact against Stojnic means Velasquez has to remain focused on using his marked wrestling advantage to keep his opponent from turning this into a kickboxing match. From there, Velasquez’s ground striking and explosive strength should be all he needs to dispatch the Golden Glory import.

The X-Factor: Testing striking skills against the worst possible opponent remains a common mistake among developing wrestling converts. That’s not an error Velasquez can afford to make, as Stojnic would be all too happy to cash in on it.

Denis “The Menace” Stojnic Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’11/235 lbs.
Age: 29
Hometown: Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Fighting out of: Holland, The Netherlands
Record: 5-1

The breakdown: The plan’s simple for Stojnic — keep the All-American super wrestler off you long enough to hopefully score a knockout. It’s easier said than done. Stojnic simply cannot stop Velasquez from imposing his will. He needs to come out ready to unload.

The X-Factor: Stojnic’s headfirst style looks like a severe liability against Velasquez, who can change levels with shocking speed for a guy who dwarfs most redwoods. If Stojnic does not alter his approach to include more lateral movement and feinting, he’ll never have a chance.

* * *

The bottom line: This is the worst possible matchup for a one-dimensional kickboxer like Stojnic, and it will show early, as Velasquez plants him on the canvas and goes to work. Think of it like the “Planet Earth” episode in which the Nile crocodile eats the gazelle, only more one-sided.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT SATURDAY

Thursday, February 5th, 2009

With the latest UFC Fight Night coming to us live Saturday from the Sun Dome in Tampa, Fla., via the MMA fan’s best friend, SpikeTV, the undercard is due for some prognostication. Since Ace Rothstein is busy setting the line on Nicky’s next coke binge, the honor falls on me.

With UFC regulars such as Kurt Pellegrino, Rich Clementi and Dan Miller all lined up for quality scraps, start reaching out to every God available in hopes that we get some of these bouts on the broadcast. Between Xtreme Couture blue-chipper Jake Rosholt and Matt Hughes’ disciple Matt Veach, we may end up seeing some future UFC contenders make their debuts as well.

In other words, summon the Mothership and activate the hype-asaurus for some full-scale fight talk.

For the record, I only talk about fights because I’m terrified of actual fights.

Kurt Pellegrino vs. Robert Emerson

Kurt “Batman” Pellegrino Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’8/155 lbs.
Age: 29
Hometown: Point Pleasant, N.J.
Fighting out of: Point Pleasant, N.J.
Record: 12-4

The breakdown: While pop culture nerds will finally get an answer to the question of whether Simon Templar could kick in Batman’s face, actual MMA fans wait to see if Pellegrino can make it through a fight without looking like his face went on vacation to a meat grinder convention. To that end, Pellegrino needs to be careful about how he collapses the pocket on Emerson, who does his best work when opponents step within reach of his strikes. The upside for Pellegrino is that if he can avoid Emerson’s rangy power punches, his solid wrestling and submission credentials make him a difficult opponent for the relatively one-dimensional Emerson.

The X factor: After seven fights in the UFC, this is the first time Pellegrino will face someone whom he can’t afford to test out on the feet. A nonstop diet of fellow grapplers has emboldened Pellegrino, but that newfound willingness to slug it out is a severe vulnerability against Emerson.

Rob “The Saint” Emerson Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’9/155 lbs.
Age: 27
Hometown: Huntington Beach, Calif.
Fighting out of: Irvine, Calif.
Record: 8-6 (1 NC)

The breakdown: Starting your career 0-4 is rarely a sign of good things to come, but thanks to some perseverance and plenty of legal system sympathy, Emerson is suddenly a hot commodity at lightweight after a stunning 12-second KO of Manny Gamburyan at UFC 87. This time around, though, Emerson won’t have a short-limbed judoka running straight at him with hands down and chin up. Considering Emerson will have to deal with Pellegrino’s wrestling throughout, lateral movement and a steady jab should be central to Emerson’s game plan.

The X factor: Improved takedown defense played a critical role in Emerson’s win over Keita Nakamura at UFC 81 but so did Nakamura’s Starvin’ Marvin approach to weight cutting. How Emerson handles Pellegrino’s sufficient caloric intake and roughhouse-wrestling style will be key to his hopes of giving the bat a Joker-on-Jason-Todd-level beatdown.

* * *

The bottom line: Tragically, I’m all out of relevant Batman references, but that doesn’t change the fact that Pellegrino has Emerson’s number. Even if Emerson has some luck on the feet, Pellegrino knows when to go back to the well and rely on his ground game. Once that happens, Emerson’s takedown defense won’t be the game-changer he’s hoping it’ll be. 

Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com


Dan Miller is a legit.

Jake Rosholt vs. Dan Miller

Jake Rosholt Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’1/185 lbs.
Age: 26
Hometown: Sand Point, Idaho
Fighting out of: Las Vegas
Record: 5-0

The breakdown: After a less than impressive WEC debut against Nissen Osterneck, Rosholt now has to face an even better grappler who has already conquered the infamous UFC jitters. Given that unenviable task, what Rosholt has to do is learn from his struggles with Osterneck by ditching any attempts at striking in favor of a more straightforward ground-and-pound approach. That would keep Rosholt in his comfort zone and allow him to conserve energy instead of wasting it all in 30 seconds flat.

The X factor: Let’s face it, Rosholt’s WEC debut was the biggest primetime fiasco since the last episode of “Alf.” It was bizarre and unsatisfying yet left you wanting more for some reason. Unless Rosholt can keep his nerves under control this time, we might just see him pull a Bill Russell and spew before the opening bell.

Dan Miller Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’1/185 lbs.
Age: 27
Hometown: Sparta, N.J.
Fighting out of: Whippany, N.J.
Record: 10-1(1NC)

The breakdown: Hardly the super-prospect that Rosholt has been advertised as, Miller is a blue-collar wrestler who also happens to have a strong submission base to go with it. The wrestling part of his game will likely go out the window against Rosholt, who is a cash-money millionaire on the wrestling mat and a middleweight Herculoid. All that won’t matter much, though, if Miller can keep an active guard and push the pace on Rosholt, who was quick to buckle under the pressure of an opponent who wouldn’t back down.

The X factor: Despite relying heavily on submission savvy throughout his career, Miller has always been accustomed to being the better wrestler come fight time. How the frustration of being out-wrestled will play on Miller’s psyche and how he adapts to that adversity will be what decides his fate.

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The bottom line: Judging from the fits Rosholt had corralling Osterneck, Miller makes for a rough matchup. His quick hands and active ground game are ready-made to frustrate Rosholt’s nascent style. The early going will favor Rosholt’s wrestling and strongman tactics, but Miller’s pace and experience will be too much.