PREVIEW OF SATURDAY’S UFC 98
Wednesday, May 20th, 2009
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
by (trios@sherdog.com)
Tons of cancellations, last-second changes and controversial matchmaking never make for a quality show. Well, not until now.
The UFC 98 card set for Saturday at the MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas is looking like one of the best lineups in some time despite a final product that looks nothing like what the UFC had originally planned.
The star factor is certainly present. Light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans will defend his title against the criminally underappreciated Lyoto Machida, and we’ll get a long overdue resolution to the ongoing grudge between former welterweight champions Matt Hughes and Matt Serra. The rest of the main card, however, is what makes this a worthy investment for any fight fan.
Between middleweight bouts featuring some potential entrants in the Anderson Silva sweepstakes and a lightweight showdown that stars two of the UFC’s premier pocket rocket pugilists, there is something for every fight-crazed palate out there. So sit back and enjoy another round of offbeat prognostication courtesy of the guy who once argued that ping-pong is a contact sport.
Photo by Sherdog.com
Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida
The Breakdown: Opportunistic bomber meets precision tactician as Evans, fresh off knockout wins over Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin, attempts his first defense of the UFC light heavyweight strap against the Zen violence of Lyoto Machida. While the temptation is to set this up as a clash of Machida’s disciplined counter-striking and Evans’ flair for the violently dramatic, the reality is that Evans’ ability to get after Machida without paying a fight-ending toll is the riddle that he must solve. That is why Evans must resolve to make his wrestling as much a part of his game plan as his concussive right hand.
Relying only on finding a home for a power punch, even with 25 minutes’ worth of fight time, will leave Evans frustrated and dissected. Machida thrives on his opponent’s aggression and subsequent frustration. However, if Evans can keep Machida from finding a rhythm by stepping forward with punches and immediately changing levels for a takedown, he’ll keep Machida from getting his counters off and open up his own opportunities to score with ground-and-pound. Obviously Machida’s jiu-jitsu is well regarded and for good reason. Staying upright with him, though, will get Evans the same thing as the others who tried it — a shattered ego and a Darwin Award to go with it.
The X Factor: As much as fans waste their breath bemoaning the tactical nuances of Machida’s style, Evans’ bizarre habit of giving away rounds is far more worrisome. Getting behind on the judges’ cards against Machida would be a disaster for Evans, who can’t rely on Machida handing him the fight via some foolish mistake. The early going will be critical for Evans. He must at least break even with Machida or risk working from behind against a fighter whose entire style is built on reference-quality fundamentals.
The Bottom line: Evans has started slow throughout his career, but his explosive style and finisher’s instincts have made up the difference. However, against an opponent who simply doesn’t make mistakes, Evans’ modus operandi is useless. Expecting him to suddenly mix his wrestling back into the game — something he struggled to do against Michael Bisping — has all the realism of a Dan Brown novel. The “Da Vinci Code” of MMA will remain unsolved Saturday, as Machida picks apart Evans before putting him away late. Make sure you set your television’s volume to max so you can hear the entire UFC brass let out a groan when the belt is handed over to the man who was never supposed to get it.
Photo by Sherdog.com
The Breakdown: A fading UFC titan takes on one of the most unlikely champions ever as Hughes enters what he calls his last fight with two lifetimes’ worth of fistic accolades and one unsettled grudge with Serra. While Serra does hold a win over Georges St. Pierre, who holds a win over Hughes, he has yet to rediscover that magic and is on the verge of becoming a trivia answer instead of a legitimate welterweight contender. To send Hughes off into the night on a sour note, Serra will have to force Hughes out of his usual ground-and-pound routine.
Serra’s striking consists of little more than power punches and the gusto to throw them freely, but Hughes has always been vulnerable on the feet and has never had the chin to hold up against a power puncher. The tradeoff is that despite Serra’s reputation as a world-class grappler, he has never been a submission ace in MMA and Hughes has smothered some of the very best grapplers the UFC has to offer. If this turns into a grappling bout, Serra’s lacking wrestling and ineffectual guard work will leave him with a taxed gas tank and no fuel to load up on those chin-checking hooks.
The X Factor: Both fighters are coming off major injuries. Serra has wrestled with back injuries while Hughes is coming off a torn MCL and partially torn PCL that he suffered in his knockout loss to Thiago Alves. With Hughes admittedly in the twilight of his career, you have to wonder how he’ll handle coming back from such a severe injury, especially when it comes time for him to drive into his takedowns. Likewise for Serra, who will be a sitting duck if his back isn’t ready to absorb Hughes’ trademark slams. One way or another, we’re getting a lot of questions answered in this one and many of the answers won’t be pleasant.
The Bottom Line: It’s a gamble taking either fighter. Hughes, assuming his knees haven’t turned into country grits, has the stylistic advantage over Serra, who doesn’t have the strength or cardio to hold up against Hughes’ soul-sapping ground-and-pound. Barring another Hail Mary hook by Serra, he simply doesn’t have much to offer offensively, especially against a wrestler who can take him down and impose a no-frills top-control game on him. It won’t be the kind of match that the heated verbal back and forth has the masses expecting, but it will be vintage Hughes. He’ll notch a one-sided decision to close out one of the most storied Octagon careers we’ve ever seen.
Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com
looking for his first UFC win.
Drew McFedries vs. Xavier Foupa-Pokam
The Breakdown: Every fight night needs a strikers special, and we get just that with power-punching dynamo Drew McFedries taking on the slick kickboxing of Xavier Foupa-Pokam. Staying slick will be key for Foupa-Pokam, who can’t stay in the pocket against McFedries — one of the middleweight divisions premier punchers. As long as Foupa-Pokam moves in and out of the pocket and stays focused on picking his foe apart from afar, he’ll stay clear of McFedries’ blitzes and potentially capitalize on his substandard cardio.
The X Factor: When it comes to grappling, McFedries has all the talent of a striker who’s spent his whole career focusing only on scoring knockouts. While Foupa-Pokam is hardly the shining star of the jiu-jitsu scene, he is competent enough on the mats to tie McFedries into knots. It won’t be easy dragging McFedries to the mat, though, because he’ll be the significantly bigger man come fight time. With that said, McFedries has shown that any time he spends on the mat is typically just a way of him killing the clock before tapout time comes.
The Bottom Line: This won’t be an easy fight for Foupa-Pokam, but all he really has to do is keep McFedries from turning this into a glorified game of Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots. Look for Foupa-Pokam to get on his horse early. He’ll stay out of McFedries’ range before turning the tables and taking over with his versatile kickboxing game. Once that happens, a takedown will be there and Foupa-Pokam will be all too willing to take the opening on the ground and close out McFedries.
File Photo
The Breakdown: With Anderson Silva off mimicking Roy Jones Jr.’s career path, the middleweight division is waiting for someone to step up and challenge the incumbent champion’s unquestioned dominance. Both Miller and Sonnen are likely candidates, but what separates the two is that while Sonnen’s wrestling makes him a tough match for anyone, Miller has the submission game to match his wrestling. Even if Miller can’t work his submissions from top control, he’s versatile enough to give Sonnen fits from inside the guard — a place where Sonnen is more accident prone than Joe Biden at a news conference.
The X Factor: Typically Sonnen bulls his way to top control and batters his opponents into submission. That game plan goes well when Sonnen isn’t leaving his arms out on an island, but Miller is good enough to force Sonnen into a mistake. By the same token, Miller isn’t used to getting outwrestled and beat on like a cheap drum. This bout likely comes down to who can adapt best to stepping outside of his usual routine.
The Bottom Line: If adaptation decides this fight, you can put the farm on Miller. He is far more versatile and has a very underrated fight IQ. Effective as Sonnen can be from top control, he can’t bank on controlling Miller for 15 minutes. Miller is a solid wrestler in his own right and incredibly active regardless. That constant threat of the submission will end with Sonnen playing the three-tap symphony and Miller announcing his presence as a force in the contender-starved middleweight division.
Photo by Sherdog.com
The Breakdown: The evening’s opening pitch features a pair of hyperactive wrestlers in the form of Sean Sherk and Frankie Edgar, both of whom are looking to stake their claim to the winner of the upcoming lightweight title bout between Kenny Florian and incumbent champion B.J. Penn. Like any wrestling meet, this fight boils down to who can control the takedowns, whether it be by scoring his own or by stopping his opponent’s. While the skills are equal, Sherk is a converted welterweight and Edgar should be a featherweight. The New Jersey native struggled mightily against another gigantic wrestler in Gray Maynard.
It may seem overtly simplistic to let the size difference decide the direction of this bout, but Edgar doesn’t have the physical strength to resist Sherk’s light-speed takedowns. While there is always the chance that Sherk will look to keep this fight standing, he’s more than handled his own on the feet against the likes of Tyson Griffin and Nick Diaz. Regardless, I can’t imagine Sherk settling for a nip-tuck stalemate on the feet when he could easily overwhelm Edgar on the mat.
The X Factor: Of late, Sherk has been moonlighting as a striker by using his wrestling to stuff takedowns instead of scoring them. That strategy got him an LAPD-level beatdown from B.J. Penn and indicated a troubling trend for a fighter who is at his best when his wrestling guides him to the win. While Edgar is hardly the lightweight division’s resident Mike Tyson, Sherk is courting disaster every time he steps out of his comfort zone for the sake of showing off his striking. In a sport where every punch carries knockout potential, Sherk would do well remembering what has kept his head firmly attached to his shoulders after nearly a decade in the sport.
The Bottom Line: It’s hard not to root for Edgar, an undersized underdog with skill to spare and the sheer determination to brush off his disadvantages like so much dust. It makes for a compelling storyline, but it won’t make for a win. Sherk will seize the initiative early and suffocate him with three rounds of textbook top control peppered with the occasional bit of boxing to keep the lay fan interested. Hardly the performance you would expect from the nouveau fighter that Sherk promised he would become, but this is the fight where Sherk needs to realize that the fighter he has always been is the best fighter he can be.
