The Future of Fighting Blog

Monday, July 27, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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Nearly eight years ago, mixed martial arts scribes prepared eulogies for the UFC after its disastrous 33rd show, which had been supposed to mark a triumphant return to pay-per-view.

Instead, the event was cursed from the word go, as a super fight between incumbent light heavyweight champion Tito Ortiz and top contender Vitor Belfort was scrapped after the Brazilian suffered an injury during training camp. With millions already invested in the UFC since its purchase of the brand earlier the same year, Zuffa had no choice but to move forward.

A less-than-inspiring replacement was found in Vladimir Matyushenko, but with two other title bouts already on the card, many held out hope that some semblance of success could be salvaged from the wreckage of Belfort’s injury. Those hopes got shot through a particle collider, as the show deteriorated into a mess of dull decisions that left fans wondering if the hyped return of the UFC was destined to end like a small-town fireworks show — a bit of flash that leaves nothing but smoke. We all know Zuffa continued to dump millions into the UFC despite years spent operating in the red before finally emerging as the juggernaut we know today, but it’s worth remembering that bit of history after watching the less-than-shocking demise of Affliction Entertainment as a fight promotion.

It took one scrapped main event to flatline Affliction, and while Josh Barnett may be justifiably guillotined in the court of public opinion, his third positive test for steroids only accelerated what, in hindsight, was inevitable. Make no mistake, Affliction hit the scrap heap because its financiers were not willing to operate in the red while bankrolling multi-million dollar payrolls and UFC-level operating costs. Why anyone would pour millions into a market already dominated by the UFC brand without being ready to absorb some major losses is beyond me, but it shows the reckless nature with which these fly-by-night operations run.

Reckless because Affliction lured top talent with non-exclusive multi-fight deals that paid them well above market value and now has them twisting in the wind while they try to find their next paycheck amidst a pile of bills. That is the collateral damage of Affliction’s demise — athletes living paycheck to paycheck left jobless while a bunch of millionaires write off their exercise in arrogance as a failed business venture.

This exact same scenario has played out with every promotion that has tried to challenge the UFC’s stranglehold on the North American market. A quick look into the past provides a laundry list of such promotions, and the one trait they all shared was a willingness to throw around paper like party favors until the money pit ran dry.

Photo by Sherdog.com

Playing Robin Hood to the UFC’s Sheriff of Nottingham by radically altering the pay scale for mixed martial artists has proven a shortsighted and self-damning business plan. Fans may bemoan the UFC’s practice of actively keeping its pay scale in check, but it has kept the promotion in the black and was likely its saving grace during the years it spent operating in the hole. This may seem like an economics lesson, but the real point here is that while trying to compete with the UFC is not necessarily a bad idea, the way everyone goes about it is just plain bad for MMA.

Call me selfish, but I want all the world’s top fighters in one promotion constantly fighting one another — especially when you consider the cost of my monthly cable bill — and that’s something every MMA fan desires, no matter how much they loathe the UFC’s supposed monopoly. The benefits of stability and centralized control extend beyond the fans, though; someone like Eli Manning never has to worry about the New York Giants or the NFL going under, and the same luxury extends to virtually everyone in major sports.

Meanwhile, an entire roster of Affliction fighters have to wait for their contract situation to be sorted out and pray the UFC decides to bring them on board, as it represents one of their only shots at earning the same kind of living that Affliction so briefly gave them. That goes beyond unfair and shows just how concerned a company like Affliction is with the bottom line.

Back when MMA was a financial black hole, no one wanted any part of it, but now that the UFC has established a successful business model, everyone wants to make a quick buck off the sport. Affliction was no different from the World Fighting Alliance, International Fight League or any other promotion looking to carve out a piece of the pie Zuffa baked. That’s to be expected, but we’re reaching the point where it’s getting in the way of everyone’s MMA utopia.

Attempting a jump into the mainstream with the world’s best heavyweight and a large contingent of elite fighters outside the UFC umbrella seems incongruous at best, and the blame lies entirely with companies like Affliction, which actively court talent they cannot afford to keep.

Short of having a team of international assassins snuff out anyone who keeps the MMA paradise from being realized, the best move fans can make is to vote with their dollars. If it becomes clear the buying public will not support promotions that are doomed to failure, premier fighters will be unwilling to lunge headfirst into a temple of financial doom and we will reach the end game that much quicker. We’ll see the world’s best fighters negotiating with the UFC and securing their financial futures while delivering the promise that the UFC made from its very inception — the world’s best fighters fighting one another.

At this point, I’d settle for Fedor Emelianenko in the UFC and regulated MMA in New York. Yes, I’m that selfish.

E-mail comments to trios@sherdog.com.

Wednesday, July 08, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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After nearly 16 years marked by lows that had the sport on its death bed and highs that few ever could have imagined, the UFC will cross the century mark with UFC 100 this Saturday at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas. While the UFC’s marketing department has proven more prone to hyperbole than Bernie Madoff, the term “mega-card” seems like the only way to describe an event that features two championship bouts and a trio of backup fights starring some of the sport’s biggest names.

The rematch between Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir for the undisputed UFC heavyweight title should be enough on its own to get anyone to plunk down the cash for the pay-per-view telecast. Throw in the welterweight championship clash between pound-for-pound luminary Georges St. Pierre and leg kick samurai Thiago Alves, and MMA fans are in for some weird looks if they miss out on the sport’s biggest night yet. That does not even take into account the trans-Atlantic showdown between Dan Henderson and Michael Bisping or the UFC debut of Japanese middleweight superstar Yoshihiro Akiyama.

In other words, watch or die. In the meantime, get squared up on the knowledge and read up on the stacked main card. Remember, these picks are for entertainment purposes only, mainly because I find the e-mails I get about them very entertaining. Don’t worry; I think I’m an idiot, too.

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Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

UFC Heavyweight Championship
Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir

The Breakdown: The most hotly anticipated rematch in the game today finally comes to fruition, as Lesnar looks to avenge his submission loss to Mir at UFC 81 and simultaneously complete his improbable run to the UFC’s undisputed heavyweight championship. Not much has changed since the first dustup; Lesnar’s still built like a hybrid of Alexander Karelin and Megatron, while Mir relies on his submission savvy and surprising striking. This bout really hinges on what Lesnar will do with his vastly superior wrestling. If Lesnar’s brain is as powerful as his hyperactive mouth, he will use that pedigree to keep this bout from turning into a grappling meet.

For all of Lesnar’s physical dominance and pure talent, he still botched a basic kneebar defense in his bout with Mir, and that suspect submission defense remains a liability until proven otherwise. While this fight is a coin flip on the mat — it would come down to Lesnar’s adrenaline-injected ground-and-pound and Mir’s submission game — Lesnar’s speed and strength makes him the far more dangerous striker. If Lesnar has the sense to turn this into a kickboxing match, Mir will be stuck trying to survive the onslaught while searching for a takedown. Odds are Lesnar’s fist will find Mir’s gray matter long before Mir ever finds that takedown.

The X Factor: Come fight time, Lesnar will be a 280-some-odd-pound block of muscle, and one has to wonder how long his cardio can fuel all that mass against a live opponent. It’s one thing to slap around a fringe contender like Heath Herring for three rounds and quite another to do the same against a top-tier contender. At this point, Lesnar is still learning on the fly, and he has not yet figured out how to translate all his physical talent in a sport that requires so much technical acumen. The early going will be rough for Mir, but if he can hold his own and force Lesnar to work for everything he gets, there’s no easier submission scalp than a gassed-out wrestler.

***

The Bottom Line: Watching Lesnar’s fight with Randy Couture at UFC 91, you see a fighter starting to make the transition from genetic sideshow to trained athlete. That does not bode well for Mir. The possibility of Lesnar losing his composure and going for a bull rush takedown will always be there, but there’s no guarantee Mir could cinch a submission before getting steamrolled. Regardless, expect Lesnar to keep this fight standing and send Mir to bed without his dinner in short order.

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Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

UFC Welterweight Championship
Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves

The Breakdown: After turning most of the UFC welterweight division into his own personal heavy bag, Alves will finally get his crack at the resident alpha male, reigning champion St. Pierre. A gifted kickboxer with an incredible offensive arsenal on the feet, Alves’ main concern should be St. Pierre’s wrestling and how exactly he’s going to keep himself from getting grapple-stomped by the Canadian’s dazzling ground game. While Alves’ takedown defense will be critical, his willingness to stay true to his style will be just as important.

If Alves plans on winning by stuffing takedowns and landing the occasional strike, he will be lucky to last five minutes, never mind five rounds. Forcing St. Pierre to fight conservatively by asserting his dominance on the feet early will make those takedowns less frequent, as the champion will have to think defense first and offense second. St. Pierre is a studied striker in his own right, however, and he can survive in Alves’ world; the opposite seems about as likely as the return of J.D. Salinger. In terms of pure ability, few exist in St. Pierre’s universe. That sort of offensive dynamism has allowed him to effortlessly zone in on his opponent’s weaknesses and exploit them so mercilessly. Alves is hardly a dead fish on the mat, but if he spends too much time there, St. Pierre will turn him into one.

The X Factor: Being a ginormous welterweight means making equally ginormous weight cuts, and while St. Pierre has it down to a science, Alves has struggled to make weight in the past. Now stripped of the one pound leeway he usually enjoys, can Alves make weight and, if he does, will it even be worth the effort if it wipes him out? Assuming all goes well, Alves is about as dangerous a fighter as St. Pierre will ever face, as he can go from one-shot assassin to precision dismantler with baffling ease. However, the slightest hiccup at the weigh-in should be enough to get his cheering section wondering if their post-fight celebration will turn into a valediction for Alves’ title hopes.

***

The Bottom Line: Every second spent standing is just another second Alves has to turn St. Pierre’s brain cells inside out, but that will not matter as much as his ability to keep St. Pierre from going into Cael Sanderson mode. Typically, Alves has leaned on his leg kicks to control distance and wear down opponents, but whipping your legs at a bundle of fast-twitch muscles like St. Pierre is like sending him a personalized takedown request. Robbed of his most effective weapon, Alves will have to take some risks on the feet that will turn into more chances for St. Pierre to get him on the canvas. If working the guard against St. Pierre has failed the likes of B.J. Penn and Karo Parisyan, do not hold out any hope for Alves figuring out the Rubik’s cube of pain St. Pierre will drop in his lap.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago

The Breakdown: After scoring an improbable come-from behind knockout win over Josh Koscheck at UFC 95, Thiago will have to face Fitch, Koscheck’s teammate and mauler extraordinaire. Contrary to whatever impression he left in his UFC debut, Thiago is hardly a striker and would much rather use his submissions to tie opponents in knots. Managing that feat will be a tall order against the air-tight submission defense of Fitch, who has made a career out of thwarting jiu-jitsu players. Unless Thiago has some more magic in him, he may find the chance to show his true colors in the cage to be just another chance for Fitch to do what he almost always does — win.

The X Factor: Besides showing a solid punch, Thiago proved he can take a shot — or seven — by absorbing Koscheck’s powerful strikes and finding the resolve to fire back with his own. Odds are Thiago will have to take some major league mauling from Fitch, but he only needs a split second to find an opening and dynamite it wide open. Thought hardly the most glamorous strategy, Thiago needs to forget the KO he holds on Koscheck and remember his paychecks depend on his jiu-jitsu credentials.

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The Bottom Line: Five seconds of offense has not made anyone forget that Thiago looked severely out of his depth against Koscheck, and it will get even worse against Fitch’s no-nonsense style. Known for his excellent game planning and disciplined approach, Fitch is custom-made to take out anyone who relies on one facet of the game to make hay. Recent knockout notwithstanding, Thiago is a straight-forward grappler, and he’s going to catch a straight-forward beatdown from Fitch.

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Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping

The Breakdown: Now that another season of “The Ultimate Fighter” has wrapped, fans the world over will get their much-deserved dessert in the form of a middleweight bout starring Bisping, the English sensation, and Henderson, the American cauliflower ear poster child. The style clash depends in large part on how Bisping’s busy, punch-and-judy striking matches up against Henderson’s bruising, power punching game. While Henderson has the wrestling advantage, he typically relies on that edge only when he feels he has no chance on the feet, and that certainly is not the case against Bisping. Blessed with cinder blocks for hands and a chin to match, Henderson is more than willing to take two to give one; that equation does not favor Bisping and his feathery fists.

The X Factor: There’s virtually no chance Bisping can win a firefight with Henderson, but his accuracy and footwork make him a tough target — as Chris Leben learned at UFC 89. Considering that Henderson’s punches thrown-to- punches landed ratio is something like five million-to-one, Bisping can ride his horse to a decision as long as that one in five million does not find a home on his chin. It will take nothing short of flawless execution; that’s a given against Henderson.

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The Bottom Line: Even if Bisping can frustrate his foe on the feet, it will not take long for Henderson to switch gears and turn this into a ground-and-pound marathon the Brit is ill-equipped to stop. It’s a lose-lose situation for Bisping that will end with a loss for England’s favorite mixed martial artist. The bright side for Bisping fans? If he reacts to this loss the same way he did his first, they may soon get to see him make his long-awaited bantamweight debut.

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Daniel Herbertson/Sherdog.com

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher

The Breakdown: After making his name on the Japanese circuit, middleweight standout Akiyama makes his UFC debut against Belcher, Mississippi’s main man. Akiyama is a tremendous fighter, and Belcher is not well-rounded enough to keep up with him. Standing, Akiyama has shown a surprising talent for kickboxing, and his Judo background has translated into equally superb takedowns and submissions. While Belcher has always been a slick striker, his grappling remains a weakness that’s begging to be exploited, and Akiyama will be all too willing to teach him the three-tap symphony.

The X Factor: Belcher’s only out is his striking, as he’s not going to luck his way into a submission. However, he will not like Akiyama’s piston punching and brute physicality. Keeping that in mind, Belcher needs to stay patient and work on wearing down Akiyama without letting himself get caught up in too many exchanges. Banking on Akiyama ignoring the ground game is a fool’s bet, but it’s the only hope Belcher has to save himself from becoming the canvas for Akiyama’s pain painting.

***

The Bottom Line: Expect Belcher to live up to his role as a showcase opponent by getting thoroughly outclassed by Akiyama.

Monday, July 06, 2009
by Mike Harris (mharris@sherdog.com)

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The first clash between heavyweights Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir at UFC 81 in February 2008 was widely viewed as a contest pitting strength against skill.

Indeed, the fight bore out those views from the get-go, as the 265-pound Lesnar, a former NCAA national wrestling champion and World Wrestling Entertainment superstar, overwhelmed the smaller Mir with sheer brute power, took him to the mat and ferociously grounded-and-pounded him.

In fact, the beating was a bit too ferocious in the view of referee Steve Mazzagatti, who stopped Lesnar’s attack and penalized the UFC newcomer one point for punching Mir in the back of the head. When the fight resumed, Lesnar had lost his momentum, allowing the more experienced Mir to deftly use his black belt jiu-jitsu skills to submit the bigger man with a kneebar at 1:30 of the first round.

The two meet again inside the Octagon this Saturday in a heavyweight unification rematch atop the super-stacked UFC 100 card at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas.

Expect another classic matchup of strength versus skill, right? Perhaps, but in Mir’s estimation, that’s an oversimplification.

“One thing everybody always talks about is my skill versus Brock’s power,” the UFC’s interim heavyweight champion said during a recent conference call. “That’s kinda funny in that it’s a real simple way of looking at it, because, honestly, if I go to the athletic club down the street, I’ll be hard pressed to find many guys in the gym who are stronger than I am.

“And I guarantee you that Brock is not that unknowledgeable about jiu-jitsu or grappling,” added Mir, 30, who has trained for the fight at Robert Drysdale’s Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Ken Hahn’s Striking Unlimited gyms in Las Vegas. “He has had the ability to train with world-class guys every day now for the last couple of years. So even though that obviously, on paper, the first thing that stands out is, you know, ‘Frank – submissions; Brock is a strong guy,’ there’s definitely a lot more to it than just that.”

Lesnar (3-1), the UFC’s heavyweight champion, agrees.

“I think I’ve improved dramatically since my first venture of even thinking of getting into MMA,” said Lesnar, 31, who trains at Greg Nelson’s Minnesota Martial Arts Academy in Brooklyn Center, Minn. “I bill myself as a fighter now, and I want to evolve and make myself a well-rounded fighter. So obviously I’m not going to leave any stone unturned when it comes to submissions, submission defense, striking, knees, leg kicks and also learning to defend everything.”

Photo by Sherdog.com

Given Lesnar’s wrestling pedigree, Mir said it’s no secret where his chief strength as a fighter lies.

“Obviously,” Mir said, “the wrestling area is pretty much the dominant area.”

However, he noted that in Lesnar’s last two fights — both victories — against Heath Herring and Randy Couture he saw improvements elsewhere.

“I also saw that his boxing was very successful,” Mir said, “so I look to see that in the fight.”

Lesnar became the heavyweight champion in his technical knockout win over Couture at 3:07 of the second round at UFC 91 in November. Mir, meanwhile, secured the interim heavyweight title in a TKO victory over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at 1:54 of the second round at UFC 92 a month later.

Despite Lesnar’s ever-improving grappling, Mir does not expect him “to be playing a jiu-jitsu game, where he takes me down and passes my guard and looks for a submission. I just think he’s gonna [try] to take me down, look to establish a very dominant controlled position somewhere against the cage and rain down punches, use his size and power to his greatest advantage.”

Mir noted that for a big man, Lesnar moves with great speed and agility.

“There were times [in the first fight] when I was in the ground that I lost him,” Mir said. “I was, like, ‘He’s on my right side. He’s punching me. Oh, s–t, where’d he go?’”

As for his own game plan, Mir revealed that, in training, he “would find ways to use technique and my agility to alleviate” Lesnar’s fighting style, which Mir’s sparring partners tried to mimic.

“I can’t really go head-to-head [with Lesnar],” he said. “It’s not the smartest game plan in the world.”

Because of his willingness to learn, Lesnar feels his striking and ground game have improved markedly since he started competing in MMA in 2007. He considers himself very coachable.

“I could have been very pig-headed when I made this transition from a former pro wrestler to an ultimate fighter and said, ‘Well, I’m just gonna use my wrestling technique and my strength and speed,’” Lesnar said. “That would have been very ignorant of me.”

Lesnar admits the desire to payback Mir for his loss at UFC 81 remains a significant motivation.

“Revenge is a key factor here for me,” he said.

Lesnar, however, brushed aside talk that he and Mir do not like each other personally.

“I don’t dislike Frank in any way, other than he’s got a win over me,” Lesnar said. “And I don’t like to lose.”

Mir echoed Lesnar’s sentiments.

“If there’s any animosity, I think probably … it’s that neither one of us feels like maybe we have the same amount of respect we should have and what we want to attain right now in the heavyweight division,” Mir said.

Noting that Lesnar has had only four professional MMA bouts, Mir believes the monstrous Minnesotan seeks legitimacy.

“With his skill level and NCAA wrestling and stuff, he obviously wants to push forward on his credibility and why he deserves the exposure he gets,” Mir said. “On my part, too, I think after I had the [2004 motorcycle] accident, I had so many bad fights in a row. Now, coming back on the winning streak I am on now, I’m also craving that fame. Respect, I guess, is the bottom line at the end of the day, and you want to have that recognized.”

Lesnar disagrees.

“I don’t give a damn what anybody thinks,” he said. “The only thing that matters to me is that I’m happy and my family’s happy.”

Mir’s jiu-jitsu coach, Drysdale, started training the interim champion for the Lesnar rematch a few weeks after Mir’s last fight — the victory over Nogueira that earned him the interim heavyweight belt.

“Frank’s looking leaner, faster and his ground game has improved a lot,” said Drysdale, an Abu Dhabi Submission Wrestling world champion. “Brock makes a mistake, he’s gonna get tapped. If I were Brock, I’d be very, very careful in taking Frank down.”

Drysdale thinks Mir’s striking — with the help of his striking coach, Hahn — has improved since the Nogueira fight.

“The Frank that is fighting Lesnar is a much better striker than the Frank that fought Nogueira,” Drysdale said.

That says a lot, considering he stopped Nogueira, a man who had never before been finished. Even so, going into UFC 100, Mir finds himself an underdog again, with oddsmakers favoring Lesnar.