The Future of Fighting Blog

Wednesday, August 26, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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Flying ninja robots, mutant monkey assassins and … wait, that’s next month’s UFC. No worries. UFC 102 “Couture vs. Nogueira,” booked for the Rose Garden in Portland, Ore., is stacked top to bottom with enough top-shelf violence to claim yet another Saturday night from mixed martial arts fans the world over.

With a main card headlined by two of the sport’s heavyweight heavyweights, Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, one needs no other reason to cancel that family reunion and spend an evening getting reacquainted with the wonders of television.

Plus, Demian Maia will flex his jiu-jitsu, Keith Jardine will remind the world he’s the world’s funkiest Viking and maybe those flying ninja robots will make an appearance. In the meantime, settle in for some serious fight talk. Perhaps some of it will manage to be accurate.

Scott Doctor/Splash News

Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

The Breakdown: Two of MMA’s heavyweight legends look to prove naysayers wrong one more time, as elder face smasher Couture takes on a suddenly shopworn Nogueira. Despite being just a few months removed from his 33rd birthday, Nogueira’s years of absorbing beatings like a Brazilian Jake LaMotta seemed to catch up with him when Frank Mir soundly trounced him at UFC 92. Couture is not coming off the fight of his life, either, as he failed to stop the centaur known as Brock Lesnar from claiming the heavyweight crown that once rested on his own head. With that said, Couture has not left his last few fights looking like a back-alley hospital patient.

With Mir having already written the script for starching Nogueira, watch for Couture to use his wrestling to keep the fight standing and rely on his boxing from there. Whether or not playing the same tune as Mir works for Couture will depend on just how much of his old self Nogueira has rediscovered in his eight months away from the cage. In a sport where nostalgia runs deep but counts for little, Nogueira has to prove he still has something left to offer after already giving so much.

The X Factor: Lost in all the dismissive chatter about Nogueira is the fact that Couture is a 46-year-old man competing in a sport that skews younger than the cast of whatever atrocious teen-age drama the CW airs. Sooner or later, Couture is going to hit the same wall Brett Favre has already run into several times. How capable Nogueira is of sending him on his way remains anyone’s guess, but he’s proven everyone wrong countless times before.

***

The Bottom Line: Nogueira fans should start practicing their cringing, as Couture is going to turn this into a one-sided dirty boxing display that the Brazilian won’t be able to do much of anything about. No miracle submissions this time around, as Nogueira ends up getting saved by the referee’s sense of compassion but not before taking two rounds worth of Couture’s old-school bullying.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Thiago Silva vs. Keith Jardine

The Breakdown: Two of the light heavyweight division’s forgotten men look to restart their title runs, as Silva and Jardine try to bounce back from demoralizing losses by bouncing their fists off of each other’s heads. While Jardine is at his best snapping leg kicks and confounding opponents with his off-kilter timing and angles, Silva is at his best on the mat, using his slick guard passing and positioning to pound out opponents. However, Silva often confuses himself with a striker, and that bit of identity crisis could cost him a fight he can ill afford to lose.

The X Factor: As uncoordinated as Jardine looks inside the cage, he actually has shown stout takedown defense. That could become a major factor, as Silva has the bad habit of going into Clubber Lang mode when his takedowns come up short. Discipline and proper game planning have been absent from Silva’s game before, and he’ll need both to deal with Jardine.

***

The Bottom Line: My personal betting favorite for “Fight of the Night,” expect a wild one, with Jardine loading up on the leg kicks and Silva answering with his underrated clinch game. Eventually, Silva’s struggle for the takedown will tax his cardio and leave him gasping for air as Jardine starts finding a home for his unorthodox arsenal. Do not expect Silva’s chin to be up to the punishment, as Jardine scores an impressive third-round technical knockout and immediately goes into Techno Viking mode.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Demian Maia vs. Nate Marquardt

The Breakdown: Title implications abound, as jiu-jitsu demigod Maia looks to lock up a date with UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva by keeping Marquardt from a second date with the Baryshnikov of violence. At this point, Maia is a tough fighter to gauge, as his jiu-jitsu has proven so dominant that no one has forced him to show anything but his all-universe mat machinations. While Marquardt is a solid grappler in his own right, he is well out of his depth against Maia and must instead focus on using his strength and striking advantage in tandem to keep this fight upright. Otherwise, Marquardt will be padding Maia’s bank account by ending up on the wrong end of a “Submission of the Night” award.

The X Factor: No one knows anything about Maia’s striking or conditioning, and Marquardt has the style to keep this fight going long enough to get answers on both fronts. Plenty of fighters look like the second coming of Chuck Norris when they get to play by their own rules and just as many come crashing down to earth when the game changes on them. Sooner or later, Maia is going to have to step outside his kingdom, and Marquardt may just drag him out of it kicking, screaming and perhaps even tapping.

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The Bottom Line: This will be Maia’s toughest fight yet, but not even Marquardt busting out the pile driver again will be enough to save him from getting ensnared in the Brazilian’s web of tangled limbs and blocked airways. The difference maker this time around will be Maia’s wrestling, as Marquardt struggles to keep him at bay before learning the same lesson Chael Sonnen learned against Maia — some of these jiu-jitsu guys have that wrestling stuff pretty well figured out.

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James Meinhardt/Sherdog.com

Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt

The Breakdown: The dearly departed John Hughes would be proud to see this battle of high school archetypes, as the skateboarding outcast, Leben, takes on the classic uber-jock, Rosholt. While everyone in high school knew better than to tempt the ginormous wrestler, the absurd hype that accompanied Rosholt’s MMA transition has proven premature, as he went from overblown prospect in World Extreme Cagefighting to overmatched bust in his UFC debut against Dan Miller. This may be Rosholt’s last chance to reclaim some of his lost cache, but Leben will not be an easy mark, as his cinderblock fists and steadily improving jiu-jitsu are not weapons Rosholt’s one-note style is built to withstand.

The X Factor: Unless Rosholt either body slams Leben unconscious or runs chin-first into one of his fists, conditioning will be critical as this bout wears on. While Leben has had to dig deep on many an occasion, Rosholt has just six fights to his name and barely lasted a minute in his less than grand UFC debut. One way or another, Rosholt will answer a lot of the questions surrounding his once promising career.

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The Bottom Line: Leben will keep it close early by frustrating Rosholt on the mat before leveling him with his trademark overhand right late in the second round. If you listen closely, you can hear the Rosholt bandwagon clearing out.

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Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com

Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski

The Breakdown: Mr. Scrabble, Soszynski, puts his run of Octagon dominance against the perpetually hyped Vera in a bout that both men desperately need to win in order to make headway in the lion’s den light heavyweight class. While the hype machine favors Vera, Soszynski has come alive like Peter Frampton in the UFC, and his combination of bruising striking and a paralyzing mat game is just the style with which Vera has struggled. Do not discount Vera’s leg-snapping kickboxing, but he’s always struggled to impose his style on opponents, and Soszynski excels at forcing his game down the throat of whoever stares him down from across the cage.

The X Factor: For all the talent these two possess, they both have a history of coming up shorter than an Oompa-Loompa in big spots. If either fighter plans on making a serious run at the strap, those days of in-cage thumb twitting need to go the way of U2’s musical legitimacy. Pre-fight assurances aside, that history of ineffective violence weighs heavily on this bout. Whoever can’t exorcise that demon from his past will be moving one step closer to the UFC’s one-way exit.

***

The Bottom Line: After years spent as a highly touted blue-chipper, Vera will complete his slow slide into bust status, as “The Polish Experiment” dissects him with a memorable ground-and-pound assault.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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Two of the heavyweight division’s most legendary fighters, Randy Couture and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, will spit on their birth certificates and try for another round of Octagon glory at UFC 102 “Couture vs. Nogueira” this Saturday at the Rose Garden in Portland, Ore.

Because the name recognition is off the charts with those two, another quality undercard gets the short end of the publicity stick. Such injustices must not go on, so here follows another round of top-to-bottom prognostication.

The prelims are a smooth mix of prospects set to break the hype meter and unimpressed veterans looking to break the meter against the head of anyone looking to take their spots. Board the Todd Duffee bandwagon, ponder Justin McCully’s cornrows and shake your head as we try to bend the laws of probability for Chris Tuchscherer.

Photo Courtesy: UFC.com

Ed Herman vs. Aaron Simpson

The Breakdown: In the sleeper bout of the undercard, fast-rising middleweight prospect Simpson will make a Scott Bakula-level quantum leap in competition against Herman, who has entrenched himself as the division’s top gatekeeper. While Simpson has made his name with an undefeated string of technical knockout wins, Herman’s home remains on the mat, where he works his Team Quest-influenced brand of ground strikes and submissions. How Simpson holds up against Herman’s wrestling will be critical, as the former Arizona State wrestler has yet to show us if his wrestling pedigree translates to his new profession. Consider it an important tidbit, as Simpson’s human steamroller impersonation will not impress Herman, who has the chin and experience to force almost anyone out of their comfort zone.

The X Factor: Simpson’s dominance has proven a double-edged sword, as no one is quite sure how he’ll react when he has to work for a win against top-tier competition. Proving your mettle against someone like Herman is a lot like proving you can read by taking the SAT. How Simpson handles this steep step up will play heavily in how his evening — and any future UFC dates — plays out.

***

The Bottom Line: This will be the fight eagle-eyed fans watch closely. The next wave of middleweight challengers is in the midst of announcing its presence, and Simpson could be next in line. Do not expect him to make that move against Herman, who will turn this into a rough-and-tumble affair by skipping the striking and going for a ground-and-pound siege. There will be some dicey moments for Herman, as Simpson is bound to get in his licks sooner or later. The scorecards will smile on Herman, however, as he leaves his quarry a bloody mess after three rounds of plastic surgery disguised as ground-and-pound.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Chris Tuchscherer

The Breakdown: Not much to break down here, besides the fact that Gonzaga has been a top heavyweight contender for years and Tuchscherer’s gaudy record cannot cover up the stink from time spent in the YAMMA bowl. More than anything, Tuchscherer’s record serves as a testament to the dearth of quality heavyweights outside the major leagues of MMA. Tuchscherer will quickly become aware of that fact against Gonzaga, who has him beat on the mat and feet.

The X Factor: Unless Tuchscherer can break out a killer Junior dos Santos impersonation, he will find himself in way over his head in his UFC debut. Fighters brought into the UFC as little more than chum have turned probability on its head before, but the MMA Gods will allow only so much chaos in one calendar year.

***

The Bottom Line: Tuchscherer will make it to the second minute before he taps out. Expect another newcomer to get chewed up, spit out and sent home.

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Photo by Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Justin McCully vs. Mike Russow

The Breakdown: The UFC finally got the memo about the need for more heavyweights. Russow is one of three such competitors debuting on the undercard. McCully and his army of blood-curdling cornrows will take on the forgotten Pride Fighting Championships prospect. McCully has skated by in the UFC by out-wrestling strikers with the takedown defense of Meryl Streep. That is a luxury McCully will not enjoy against Russow, who is likely the better wrestler and certainly the more effective grappler. Unless McCully’s cornrows have some sort of Medusa effect he has kept secret, this looks like the end of his lay-and-pray reign.

The X Factor: Few expected McCully to stick around in the UFC; if nothing else, he has proven he can avoid danger and stay within his comfort zone. While Russow has shown the fundamentally superior wrestling game thus far, if McCully can find a flaw in his takedown defense, this fight takes on a whole new dimension. Russow has plenty of submissions to his name, which makes for a nice insurance policy, but getting the job done off his back with McCully clinging to him like a strait jacket is something for which he may not be ready.

***

The Bottom Line: Russow has quietly amassed a seven-fight winning streak, and he has proven a far more evolved fighter than McCully, who has nothing to offer beyond top control against this level of competition. Russow will mercilessly capitalize on his advantages, as he soundly outwrestles McCully before putting him away with his favored north-south choke midway through the first round.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Todd Duffee vs. Tim Hague

The Breakdown: Just one of several genetic anomalies populating the heavyweight division, the skyscraper with fists known as Hague will look to follow up his spoiler win over Patrick Barry by derailing another top-flight prospect in American Top Team disciple Duffee. Unlike Barry, Duffee is a full-fledged heavyweight, and his time with ATT has molded him into a surprisingly well-rounded fighter despite a record that’s thinner than an Olsen sister. That lack of world-class opposition may not matter much, as Hague has not taken on any world beaters. While Hague’s size and surprising skill make him a difficult style matchup, his usual routine of physically overwhelming opponents will not be enough to keep his upset streak alive.

The X Factor: When you have more than 12 feet and 500 pounds of humanity in the cage, cardio is bound to come into play, unless the Octagon collapses. Barring any such incident, the cardio battle will hinge on who can generate maximum offense with minimal effort. Hague’s solid record obscures the fact that his movements are severely telegraphed and his reach is virtually ignored as a strategic advantage. While Duffee is practically the same size as Hague, he is the faster and more dynamic fighter, which makes him the one more likely to take over when the adrenaline and testosterone meters hit zero.

***

The Bottom Line: Hague just barely managed to beat Barry and took plenty of damage en route; repeating that feat against a game opponent he cannot bully around is beyond his ability. The UFC hopes this fight can launch Duffee’s career, as he’s one of North America’s premier heavyweight prospects. Hague has just enough cache to his name to pass as a suitable opponent. Watch for Duffee to weather the Octagon jitters by keeping the kind of pace that would make a speed junkie blush. Hague will have no answer, except to tap the canvas when Duffee flips the switch and goes into a ground-and-pound frenzy.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Nick Catone vs. Mark Munoz

The Breakdown: Give Catone some credit; he’s a solid fighter who works an especially nasty top control game by combining his strong base and workmanlike submission skills. The problem? He’s facing Munoz, a born and bred mauler on the mat. A tremendous collegiate wrestler at Oklahoma State University, Munoz keeps up a surprisingly torrid pace, designed to trample opponents with the sheer volume of his offense. Catone prefers the slow and steady routine. Catone will not do himself any favors fighting methodically, and considering his usual offensive strategy is rendered useless against Munoz’s dominating wrestling, he would do well to unveil something no one has seen from him before.

The X Factor: Not everything is in Munoz’s favor for this fight, as he’s making his first cut down to middleweight and looking to rebound from a brutal knockout loss to Matt Hamill. Predicting how prospects will react to getting their skull inverted is an inexact science at best, but Munoz’s chin is hardly a house of cards, and Catone’s striking has not kept up anyone late at night.

***

The Bottom Line: Neither fighter likes working off his back, and Munoz is the better wrestler. While applying mathematical principles to MMA is something folks should leave to YouTube analysts, Munoz does not have much to worry about from Catone as long as he doesn’t baseball slide into a shin or guillotine choke. Look for Munoz to triumph, as he grounds-and-pounds his way to an impressive middleweight debut.

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Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Marcus Aurelio vs. Evan Dunham

The Breakdown: The new blood, Dunham, takes on the mercurial blood in Aurelio, whose entire career has been spent going back and forth between atom-smasher and glorified pickaxe. That inconsistency has kept Aurelio trapped under a glass ceiling of his own making, but Dunham looks like just the kind of foe Aurelio has eaten alive in the UFC. A solid if unspectacular fighter, Dunham needs to get Aurelio off balance early or risk getting plowed over by one of the Brazilian’s cannonball double legs and ending up as just another submission skin for the part-time virtuoso.

The X Factor: The only factor that should keep anyone from running to the bank with Aurelio is the troubling disconnect between his brain and body. For someone with real athleticism to go with his technical savvy, Aurelio puts two and two together with all the consistency of a 4-year-old. If Dunham can throw a wrench in Aurelio’s plans early, it will not be long before he’s beating him upside the head with it.

***

The Bottom Line: Aurelio is due for another one of those fights during which he whips his fans into a frenzy by turning some hapless soul into a glorified grappling dummy. That supporting role awaits Dunham, who will not be able to stave off Aurelio’s opening bell bull rush and will instead have to wait for a bailout from the referee.

Thursday, August 13, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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No matter what Strikeforce’s big shots have to say about it, signing Fedor Emelianenko is the biggest blow the UFC has taken in years. And while this Saturday’s “Carano vs. Cyborg” event may not feature MMA’s golden goose, it is the promotion’s first chance to cash in on the buzz surrounding its name.

Great timing on the part of Strikeforce, as Gina Carano is one of the promotion’s most recognizable stars and fans have been clamoring for her to take on Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos for what seems like an eternity now.

Backing up that momentous showcase for women’s MMA is an interim lightweight bout pitting Gilbert Melendez against the man who handed him his first professional loss, Japanese sparkplug Mitsuhiro Ishida. Throw in the hotly anticipated lightweight title bout between Renato “Babalu” Sobral and another new acquisition, division-hopping ace Gegard Mousasi, and this is Strikeforce’s best chance yet to carve out a piece of the pie the UFC has been hoarding.

How that shakes out is anyone’s guess, but everyone lucky enough to get price gouged by their local cable company for Showtime will have a chance to find out for themselves.

Gina Carano vs. Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos

The Breakdown: After years spent relegated to fringe Japanese promotions and local barnhouse shows, women’s MMA finally gets a chance to win over the mainstream crowd with its first stateside superfight. Cover girl Gina Carano will finally take on “Cyborg” Santos in the fight that fans of the nascent division have been begging for. If you’re the type who gets freaked out by ladies hitting each other, turn away because both Santos and Carano have built their names on striking skills that have left the rest of the 145-pound division kowtowing to their dominance.

Who emerges as the alpha female on the feet is what this fight hinges on. Carano uses a precise, varied striking style that overwhelms opponents while Santos is a pure brawler with the power to turn the lights out on just about any featherweight, male or female. If Carano can use her movement and accuracy to frustrate Santos, she has the inside track on the win, but that means surviving a full-blown onslaught from the brutal Brazilian bomber. That is a feat no one has managed thus far.

The X Factor: The most underrated aspect of Carano’s game is her jiu-jitsu, which has been a literal lifesaver on more than one occasion for the undefeated champion. While the lone loss on Santos’ ledger came via submission, that was in her MMA debut. Regardless, Carano has to keep the mat in mind as her escape route if Santos starts turning her face into a scale model of a Jackson Pollack. For Santos, she still has to prove her jiu-jitsu is not the liability it once was.

* * *

The Bottom line: It’s no secret that Strikeforce and the now deceased EliteXC protected Carano while building her into a star, but those days are thankfully over as Santos is one of the most dangerous female fighters at any weight. That will become apparent early on, as Santos savors the opportunity long denied to her by blitzing Carano and scoring a knockout that will announce her as the division’s new matriarch.

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Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com

Jay Hieron vs. Jesse Taylor

The Breakdown: This is a bout that no one expected. Hieron and Taylor step in on short notice to replace the chronically injured Joe Riggs and the chronically chronic-ed Nick Diaz. Short notice is the ultimate variable but Taylor is an inexperienced, developing fighter while Hieron is a savvy veteran with the right style to frustrate any neophyte looking to make a name at his expense. A balanced fighter with a strong wrestling pedigree, Hieron’s wrestling game should be enough to keep Taylor from working the top-control game he depends on almost exclusively in the cage.

With his best offensive option nullified, Taylor will either have to prove his striking is up to snuff or try to make a miracle happen from his guard. Hunting for miracles in a fight doesn’t exactly count as sound strategy, and unless Taylor has something new to show off, a miracle in the cage to match the miracle on ice is looking less and less likely.

The X Factor: One thing Hieron has always struggled with is working off his back. While Taylor is still adapting his wrestling to the cage, he is a massive welterweight and can bully his way to takedowns when his skill comes up short. If the wrestling swings in Taylor’s favor at any point, he may not need more than a brief window to turn Hieron into the star of his highlight reel. Whether or not Taylor actually has the offensive firepower to take advantage of that scenario is what he’ll have to prove to both himself and everyone else.

* * *

The Bottom Line: The short notice nature of this bout will become obvious early on as Hieron dismantles a clearly unprepared and inexperienced Taylor. The end will come violently when Hieron leaves Taylor’s guard in shambles and initiates a ground-and-pound siege that will eventually force a referee stoppage.

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Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Gilbert Melendez vs. Mitsuhiro Ishida

The Breakdown: After losing the chance to avenge a loss to Josh Thomson and regain the Strikeforce lightweight strap, Melendez will have to settle for a chance to take up the interim title and avenge a loss to the first man to beat him, Mitsuhiro Ishida. The style clash remains the same between these two. Ishida’s superior wrestling and relentless onrush make him a tough match for Melendez, who doesn’t have the dominating striking or airtight takedown defense to force Ishida off his game.

Unless Melendez has something new to offer, a repeat of the takedown festival Ishida put on against him the first time around is looking more and more likely. Of course, you can’t discount Melendez, who innovated both the Death Valley driver takedown and hula-hoop defense. For all I know, Melendez is saving something even more absurd for this fight like the Van Damme splits or Chuck Norris chest hair of doom.

The X Factor: Ishida’s compact frame makes him virtually unstoppable on the mat. His short limbs are nearly impossible to get a hold of and his base is rock solid, but his dominance on the ground is matched only by his ineptitude on the feet. Those short limbs are a major liability when you’re trying to throw a counterpunch as Takanori Gomi so ruthlessly proved when he scored a vicious first round TKO over his countryman. Melendez is no Gomi, but if he can force Ishida to strike with him, he won’t need to match Gomi’s fistic firepower to turn this fight on its head.

* * *

The Bottom Line: For the most part, Melendez is at his best when he can control opponents with his wrestling and he’s at his worst when he can’t. That will play heavily into the decision loss that’s awaiting him against Ishida, who will score takedown after takedown en route to a lopsided, albeit nap-inducing, judges’ nod. Let’s be real here: Only Chuck Norris can contain the awesomeness of the chest beard.

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Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Renato “Babalu” Sobral vs. Gegard Mousasi

The Breakdown: One of several bouts resurrected from the corpse of Affliction, one-time top UFC contender “Babalu” Sobral will take on multi-division ace Gegard Mousasi for the Strikeforce light heavyweight title. While Mousasi’s game has always been striking-centric with occasional flashes of submission savvy, Sobral is a pure mat fighter with the troubling habit of getting into exchanges on the feet that he can’t win. The issue here is whether or not Mousasi, a regular middleweight contender, will have the firepower to back down Sobral and the takedown defense to keep this fight upright.

Just as important will be Mousasi’s ability to survive on the mat should Sobral force him there. Sobral’s taxing top control and serpentine submissions combined with his likely strength advantage make for a dicey proposition. If Mousasi is as serious as he says he is about jumping all over the divisional map, this is the fight he needs to prove that he can be the pound-for-pound juggernaut he thinks he already is. By the same token, Sobral has been a name fighter for years, and his time to carve out a legacy is running thin.

The X Factor: Every time I see Sobral, I immediately wonder if he’s going to run headfirst into the first KO punch he sees. For such a skilled fighter, he consistently makes the mistake of sacrificing brain cells in the name of bravado. I doubt Mousasi can out-grapple Sobral, but he can definitely kick and/or punch his face in. Whether or not he does depends just as much on Sobral as it does on Mousasi.

* * *

The Bottom Line: As a middleweight, Mousasi has the potential to be an elite fighter, but that 20-pound leap to light heavyweight can claim the career of anyone not named Anderson Silva. It would be one thing if Mousasi was starting off against someone whom he can pick apart, but Sobral is going to plant Mousasi on his back and prove he can survive against the army of titans populating the light heavyweight class. Expect Mousasi to keep this fight interesting with his kickboxing and slippery mat game, but that will only keep him going long enough to hear the decision go to Sobral.

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Jim Page/Sherdog.com

Mike Kyle vs. Fabricio Werdum

The Bottom Line: Two of the heavyweight division’s most talented yet mercurial fighters square off here with Werdum and Kyle both looking to get their names entered into the Fedor Emelianenko sweepstakes. Unfortunately for Kyle, his brawling style doesn’t feature the takedown defense or jiu-jitsu credentials needed to keep Werdum from turning him into a heap of twisted limbs. It’s certainly no secret that Werdum has gotten himself in trouble on the feet before — just ask Junior dos Santos — but Kyle consistently makes the mistake of bull-rushing his opponents, which plays right into Werdum’s hands.

Even if Werdum can’t score a speedy takedown, his clinch game is far more refined than Kyle’s, who often resorts to spastic flailing and ineffective knees when he can’t break out of the clinch with strength alone. Barring another face-first leap into his opponent’s fists, Werdum should be able to rough up Kyle in the clinch before moving to the mat and finishing the fight.

Mike Cook vs. Scott Lighty

The Bottom Line: One of Strikeforce’s more promising prospects, Lighty puts his undefeated ledger on the line against the man Strikeforce is hoping plays the showcase role to a tee, Mike Cook. Strikeforce executives can breathe easy as Lighty may not be some ceiling-busting blue-chipper, but Cook is basically a canvas for any young prospect looking to paint a picture of his own potential. Expect Cook to do as he usually does and charge in headfirst before Lighty responds by wrestling him down to the mat.

From there, it won’t take long for Lighty to pound out a TKO stoppage against the overmatched Cook. Here’s hoping Lighty’s management team has the good sense to keep him on the prelims for the foreseeable future so their boy has a chance to develop properly before jumping into the deep end of the increasingly dangerous Strikeforce heavyweight division.

David Douglas vs. Justin Wilcox

The Bottom Line: A battle of up-and-comers pits Douglas and Wilcox, both of whom are looking to carve out a spot in the still nascent Strikeforce hierarchy. Both fighters have suffered from being pitted against competition out of their league, but this time around you can expect a wild back-and-forth between two evenly matched fighters. While Wilcox has seen more top-tier competition, Douglas’ rabid style and endless gas tank make him tough to corral.

While Wilcox has the balanced game to keep Douglas from getting too comfortable, it won’t be enough to keep him from dropping a nip-tuck decision. Expect a case of too much top control and ground-and-pound from Douglas and too little time to answer back for Wilcox.

Zak Bucia vs. James Terry

The Bottom Line: A rematch of their first battle earlier this year on the “Shamrock vs. Diaz” card, Bucia will try to even the score against Terry, who is one of the promotion’s best welterweight prospects. That status will be on the line against Bucia, who will look to shut down Terry’s diverse and unpredictable style that’s likely the product of training with san shou wizard Cung Le. While Bucia had some success the first time around, Terry is still the better fighter and has more options in the cage.

It may not be any easier this time, but Terry will gradually outpoint Bucia en route to another solid decision win. Of course, I’m hoping he busts out a triple spin ninja kick in honor of his mentor.

Isaiah Hill vs. Alexander Trevino

The Bottom Line: Let’s not mince words on this one, Trevino is an intriguing lightweight prospect with a surprisingly well-rounded skill set while Hill hasn’t won a fight in more than two years. You have to go back an extra year to find the last time Hill won two fights in a row. In other words, just about the only things Hill has on Trevino are experience and losses.

This is a pure showcase fight for Trevino, who will quickly turn Hill’s face into a post-modern art project. Sooner or later, the referee’s sense of compassion will kick in and Trevino will walk away with a one-sided TKO win while Hill keeps closing in on the Mendoza line.

Friday, August 07, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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While the average fan basks in the UFC 101 afterglow, the hardcores will be chomping at the bit for WEC 42 “Torres vs. Bowles” this Sunday at the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. The a main event features World Extreme Cagefighting bantamweight juggernaut Miguel Torres defending his strap against top contender Brian Bowles, which means every last one of you should have your eyeballs glued to a television come fight time.

Need some more motivation? Look no further than premier bantamweight prospect Joseph Benavidez trying to secure a title shot, Takeya Mizugaki and Jeff Curran squaring off in a “Fight of the Night” contender and lightweight up-and-comer Ricardo Lamas battling gatekeeper extraordinaire Danny Castillo.

WEC Bantamweight Championship
Miguel Torres (37-1) vs. Brian Bowles (7-0)

The Breakdown: Torres, the WEC bantamweight champion and certified pound-for-pound luminary, will put both those accolades on the line yet again, with Bowles, the number one contender, looking to play spoiler this time around. What separates Bowles from past victims of the Wolfcut connoisseur is not just his strong wrestling background but an overall versatility that leaves no glaring weaknesses for Torres to readily exploit. Still, Torres figures to look to find some, as he has proven adept at adapting his game on the fly to fit whatever opponent stares at him from across the cage.

Bowles’ best bet against someone like Torres would be to show him something he has not seen before, and his unique combination of dominant top control and submission savvy is something with which Torres has yet to deal. By the same token, Bowles has yet to take on someone with the hyperactive mat game Torres so brutally employs against anyone foolish enough to enter his domain. Unfortunately for Bowles, his boxing is not developed enough to handle Torres’ multi-faceted muay Thai style, which will leave him hoping he can corral one of the sport’s preeminent grapplers for however long it takes to find a strategy that works. On paper, Bowles is certainly Torres’ toughest test to date, but that only means Torres will look to make him his biggest skin to date.

The X Factor: With just seven fights to his name, Bowles will give up a world of experience to Torres. How that plays out over the course of the fight looms large. If the prospect of challenging for a title with only seven professional fights under his belt proves overwhelming for Bowles, he could get dispatched in short order, but if he takes this opportunity at face value and stays composed, you may see Torres’ run short-circuited.

The Bottom Line: If not for Torres, Bowles would probably be the man leading the bantamweight division’s charge into the hearts and minds of casual fans. That fact will become painfully clear, however, when Torres picks apart Bowles from afar before forcing him to make his biggest mistake yet — taking the fight to the mat. A dazed Bowles will have tapped out long before he realizes his folly, while Torres celebrates with what’s sure to be a killer post-fight promo. Keep your fingers crossed that he continues his one-man public relations war with Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s ego.

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Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com

Dominick Cruz (13-1) vs. Joseph Benavidez (10-0)

The Breakdown: Whoever leaves Las Vegas with the WEC bantamweight strap will soon have to turn his attention to the winner of this fight, as both Cruz and Benavidez find themselves in the midst of blistering bantamweight runs that have seen them succeed with dominating wrestling and surprising striking to back it up.

More than likely, the man who can score the bulk of the takedowns will emerge victorious here, as neither fighter is known for a dynamic guard game. While Cruz has certainly proven himself as a wrestler, he has a bad habit of losing his base and giving up unnecessary takedowns. In an evenly matched fight, those are the kind of tiny holes Benavidez will look to dynamite wide open.

The X Factor: Most of Benavidez’s game on the feet is built around speed and power, whereas Cruz has the kind of movement and fundamental skill that separates him from your typical wrestler/striker. Anytime two top-tier wrestlers lock horns, stalemates happen more often than not, and if these two do wrestle to a standstill, Cruz will have the edge. Unless Benavidez can bust out some of his mentor Urijah Faber’s “Matrix”-style striking, he better hope his Silverback breed of wrestling will be enough once the cage door closes.

The Bottom Line: This fight should resemble something out of “Transformers,” and Benavidez will play Optimus Prime, as he bulldozes Cruz with takedowns for the bulk of the three rounds. Bank on Cruz giving Benavidez some issues on the feet, but he will not keep matters upright long enough to make up the difference.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

Ricardo Lamas (6-0) vs. Danny Castillo (7-1)

The Breakdown: With the WEC’s lightweight division in turmoil thanks to champion Jamie Varner’s laundry list of injuries, Lamas, a top prospect, will get a chance to announce his presence at the expense of Castillo, who will look to redeem himself after taking a controversial split decision from Phil Cardella at WEC 39.

Vindication will prove a tall order, as Lamas’ relentless top control style is something Castillo is ill-prepared to stymie. Despite his solid submission and striking skills, Castillo will need to defend the takedown first and foremost or end up getting the business end of a top control special.

The X Factor: Though Lamas wields an effective style, his offense mostly consists of takedowns and mediocre ground striking. Granted, Lamas makes up for it with relentlessness, but if he cannot keep Castillo on lockdown, he will find himself outgunned and short on options. This all comes down to Castillo stuffing enough takedowns to give himself a chance to do something other than get slammed like a World Wrestling Entertainment jobber.

The Bottom Line: It seems easy to knock Lamas’ one-note approach, but it has proven undeniably effective. Do not expect much in the way of excitement, as Lamas grinds out a one-sided decision win fueled by meat grinder ground-and-pound.

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Takeya Mizugaki (11-3-2) vs. Jeff Curran (29-11-1)

The Breakdown: After coming up just short against bantamweight kingpin Miguel Torres, Mizugaki will look to put his name right back in the title mix by keeping Curran’s name out of the running. With both men coming off losses, neither can afford to go on a skid, and it’s Curran who’s at a disadvantage against Mizugaki’s stout wrestling and submission defense.

While Curran has proven game on the feet before, considering Mizugaki held his own with Torres, going for a striker’s showdown may be no better an idea than trying to work his way out from underneath Mizugaki’s paralyzing wrestling.

The X Factor: After his bantamweight debut was spoiled by Joseph Benavidez, the whispers started regarding how long Curran has left as a top-flight mixed martial artist. With his back against the wall, Curran will come out looking to go for broke in search of the respect he has lost. Everyone knows Mizugaki loves a good scrap, but if Curran starts throwing a million submissions a second at him, he might lose his taste for this fight.

The Bottom Line: Expect Curran to unload a full clip of submissions on Mizugaki, but do not expect any of them to find their mark, as Mizugaki answers back with disciplined ground-and-pound en route to a shutout decision win.

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Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com

Leonard Garcia (12-4) vs. Jameel Massouh (21-5)

The Bottom Line: After dropping his WEC debut to Raphael Assuncao, there will be no rest for Massouh, as he has to take on a top contender in Garcia. While Massouh’s versatile style earned him a spot in the WEC, he does not have one skill he can use to overwhelm opponents.

Meanwhile, Garcia has transformed into the kind of pure power puncher that Massouh cannot handle. The ground game remains an option, but Garcia is more than game on the mat, and odds are Massouh will not have much luck getting this fight on the ground anyway. Expect a return to form for Garcia, who rebounds from his loss to featherweight king Mike Thomas Brown.

Fredson Paixao (8-3) vs. Cole Province (5-1)

The Bottom Line: Wrestler meets grappler, as the bulldog ground-and-pound game Province plays runs headfirst into Paixao’s world-class jiu-jitsu skills. While Paixao certainly will not mind getting hit with a few double legs, Province may find fending off Paixao’s arsenal of mat machinations beyond his means. Usually, wrestlers have the option of keeping the fight upright, but Province’s mediocre striking makes him less than the ideal candidate to crumple Paixao.

Do not be surprised if Province tries that route anyway and ends up with Paixao pulling guard before a string of submission attempts eventually leaves Province looking for the nearest exit.

Marcus Hicks (8-2) vs. Shane Roller (5-2)

The Bottom Line: Roller, a collegiate wrestling convert, was supposed to be a star in the making, but after a disappointing bout with Benson Henderson, he will have to carve out a spot for himself against Hicks’ wrecking ball style. Despite the advertisements, Roller’s wrestling game has yet to translate fully to MMA, while Hicks’ combination of bullying strikes and rabid grappling makes him the kind of offensive force with which a developing prospect like Roller tends to struggle.

Unless Roller has managed to find a way to make his wrestling game work, he will find himself severely outgunned against a foe known for pressuring opponents into mistakes. Given Roller’s lack of experience, he will eventually make the mistake for which Hicks looks and end up trapped in a trachea-tightening guillotine choke.

Ed Ratcliff (6-1) vs. Phil Cardella (8-3)

The Bottom Line: The urban karateka meets the versatile quicksilver, as Ratcliff’s wildly unorthodox striking makes for an interesting matchup with Cardella’s slick grappling game. The real key here is whether or not Cardella has the wrestling to get Ratcliff horizontal before one of Ratcliff’s kicks beats him to it. Luckily for Cardella, his takedowns are serviceable, while Ratcliff’s submission defense makes surviving a mat battle as likely as a tasteful episode of “The Bachelorette.”

Some hairy early moments for Cardella will give way to a timely takedown and speedy submission win for the Illinois native. Unfortunate since it would be wonderful to see urban karate take its rightful place in MMA.

Rani Yahya (14-4) vs. John Hosman (13-4-1)

The Bottom Line: Consider this a style mismatch for Hosman, who relies on his wrestling to bully opponents, while Yahya’s jiu-jitsu waits for an opponent crazy enough to take him down. With his main weapon all but useless, Hosman needs to rely on his striking. It may not be fundamentally sound, but he makes up the difference with power.

That line of thought has been used by many of Yahya’s past opponents, and the results have been mixed. Do not bank on Hosman finding any luck, as Yahya storms him from the opening bell by pulling guard and firing off about 3,568 submission attempts in the opening minute. Hosman does not have the defensive skills to handle that sort of workload.

Diego Nunes (12-0) vs. Rafael Dias (12-5-1)

The Bottom Line: Brazilian striking ace Nunes will look to fuel his run up the featherweight ranks by turning the division’s gatekeeper, Dias, into a canvas for his breed of precision kickboxing. While Dias’ ground game serves as a threat for most, Nunes has the mat game to match him. In other words, Dias looks to be short on options and long on disadvantages.

That will become apparent from the opening bell, as Nunes dissects Dias on the feet before putting him away with a head kick late in the first round. Expect much shouting and yelling upon impact, more from the cage-side commentators than anyone else.

L.C. Davis (13-2) vs. Javier Vazquez (13-2)

The Bottom Line: Once upon a time, Vazquez was a premier prospect destined to graduate to full-fledged star status, but a series of knee injuries forced him to walk away from the sport. Now fully healed and set for a comeback, Vazquez will have to tangle with Davis, a man cut from the same submission wrestler cloth. While the submission aspect appears equal, the wrestling will prove key, as both men prefer top control to guard work.

Considering Vazquez’s history of injuries, it’s hard to image him getting the better of Davis in that regard. While Vazquez’s guard is more than serviceable, it will not be enough to keep Davis from taking a nip-and-tuck decision.

Wednesday, August 05, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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As if it were not enough to have the World Series champions in town, Philadelphia will also get UFC 101 “Declaration,” which will fill the Wachovia Center this Saturday with fight-starved fans of the Eastern Time Zone. B.J. Penn’s long-overdue lightweight title bout with Kenny Florian will headline the event, as Florian will look to unseat the Hawaiian and join the growing list of “The Ultimate Fighter” alumni who have held UFC gold.

Considering the dearth of quality mixed martial arts on this side of the Union, the UFC will back up that featured bout with current UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva’s showdown with former light heavyweight titleholder Forrest Griffin in a match that could earn Silva a top-five victory in his third division. Those two potentially historic matchups are joined on the main card by Amir Sadollah’s latest attempt to get his UFC run started, Kendall Grove and Ricardo Almeida looking to move up at the other’s expense and a lightweight tussle between Kurt Pellegrino and Josh Neer.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

UFC Lightweight Championship

B.J. Penn (13-5-1) vs. Kenny Florian (11-3)

The Breakdown: Now that the MMA blogosphere has gotten over the manufactured controversy of “Greasegate,” Penn will finally return to the business of defending the lightweight title against the number one contender. Florian will try for a second time to capture the title that eluded him against Sean Sherk at UFC 64. An infinitely improved version of the fighter that Sherk overwhelmed awaits Penn, as Florian’s physical and technical ability have finally caught up to his will to win. More important, however, will be how Florian game plans for Penn’s freakish versatility and elite jiu-jitsu skills.

Thus far, Florian has found success by picking at opponents on the feet and eventually overwhelming them on the mat with both submissions and strikes. That will prove problematic against Penn, who has proven near impossible to take down and lethal from virtually any position on the mat. While seeking out a kickboxing match may seem like a viable strategy for Florian, both Joe Stevenson and Sean Sherk tried that approach and paid for it with equal parts pain and plasma. Considering Penn’s reliance on pure talent to guide him through matches, Florian will have to lean on his tactical mind to stay one step ahead of him. Going right after Penn and hoping for the best may be his only other option. In that case, the best for which Florian could hope would be to head home with his limbs intact.

The X Factor: The only proven way to beat Penn is to frustrate him with a sound game plan and hope for his will or cardio to buckle. After watching Penn’s current lightweight run, it has become clear that he has resolved his past conditioning issues. What remains is an undeniably talented fighter with a mercurial personality who seems convinced he can coast to victory against virtually anyone. If nothing else, Florian will make Penn work for the win; that’s the first step to beating him.

The Bottom Line: Florian is undoubtedly the top contender to Penn’s crown, but the more I think about it, the more I believe he has no real chance against Penn. There is not a grappler in the division who can beat Penn on the mat, and Penn’s striking has been a revelation of late. This will not be as terribly one-sided as Penn’s previous lightweight scraps, thanks to Florian’s cerebral style, but that will only prolong a foregone conclusion. Penn delivers another vintage performance by putting Florian away with his trademark rear-naked choke late in the third round.

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Marcelo Alonso/Sherdog.com

Anderson Silva (24-4) vs. Forrest Griffin (16-5)

The Breakdown: After watching Georges St. Pierre and Fedor Emelianenko bolster their claims to pound-for-pound supremacy, Silva now has a chance to perhaps put the debate to rest with his latest foray into the 205-pound realm. It comes against Griffin, the division’s former champion. With his own status in the division at stake, Griffin can ill afford a misstep against a middleweight who has yet to prove his worth at a weight “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 1 winner was once poised to rule over. Keeping that in mind, Griffin has to use his size advantage to tax Silva’s cardio, as his usual striking strategy would serve as a competitive death sentence against the precision-tuned violence Silva brings to the cage. While Silva has been more conservative than Glenn Beck lately, he only needs a willing dance partner to return to his Baryshnikov-meets-Manson routine.

Griffin’s best bet is to get Silva on his back and force him to work for every point he gets. Given the size disparity involved here, it may only be a matter of time before Silva’s conditioning literally breaks under Griffin’s weight. Although Silva’s guard is hardly useless, trying to make up the size difference with skill will be a dicey proposition, considering Griffin’s ground game remains the ace he keeps up his sleeve. All told, most of Griffin’s success is owed to his strict game planning and borderline masochistic dedication to the gym. Whether or not you can prepare for Silva in the gym is the question Griffin will have on his mind come fight time.

The X Factor: In his light heavyweight debut, Silva starched James Irvin like a cheap shirt and put to rest the notion that his power would abandon him in his move up the weight ladder. That should concern Griffin, who may be tougher than an IRS audit but does not have the chin to hold up under heavy fire. If you’re going to beat Silva, you cannot expect to shut down his offense completely, which means proving you can survive an exchange without some involuntary rhinoplasty. Everyone knows Griffin is a willing participant, but his chin does not match his heart.

The Bottom Line: This will not be easy one way or the other. Silva’s striking is too slick to be stymied, and Griffin’s combination of learned versatility and rugged physicality is designed to shut down opponents. Griffin, however, has never had to shut down someone at Silva’s level. The Brazilian seems to unveil a new facet of his game whenever he needs it most. That sort of offensive brilliance is what will tip this fight in Silva’s favor, as he will silence his critics with a vintage performance that leaves Griffin in a heap and fans reversing field yet again. It’s all in a day’s work for MMA’s premier athlete and Michael Jackson impersonator.

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Photo Courtesy: UFC.com

Amir Sadollah (1-0) vs. Johny Hendricks (5-0)

The Breakdown: After more than a year on the shelf thanks to a staph infection and broken clavicle, Sadollah will finally start his welterweight run. It will come against Team Takedown’s high-ceiling wrestling convert, Hendricks, in a fight reminiscent of Sadollah’s brief, one-sided rivalry with CB Dollaway.

Much like Dollaway, Hendricks’ obvious talent has masked his glaring flaws, which include a surprising vulnerability in the clinch and questionable cardio. Both of those flaws are tailor-made for Sadollah to exploit, as the Thai plum remains a cornerstone of his offense and he excels at outlasting opponents. Even if Hendricks has developed professional-level cardio, his game is all about top control, and one has to wonder if he has the submission defense to cut it in the cage.

The X Factor: With most of his experience coming on the wrestling mats, the tendency might be to think Hendricks’ best hope is a top control special. However, neophyte wrestlers are notoriously easy marks on the mat, and Sadollah has the kind of natural instincts that make him composed well beyond his years. One weapon Hendricks does wield is an uppercut he swings like Mjolnir, and despite Sadollah’s skill on the feet, no one knows if he has the chin to match. For all his flaws, Hendricks has the raw power to turn any fight on its head, and he’s proven before that he knows how to make the scorecards as relevant as a Corey Haim movie.

The Bottom Line: Just a year ago, Team Takedown was heralded as a revolutionary force in MMA, but, after some high-profile miscues from its premier fighters, Hendricks is basically the last man standing in his once powerful crew. That will not last much longer, as Sadollah’s year on the shelf has only given him more time to work on his game with the top-tier trainers at Xtreme Couture and acclimate to the cut down to welterweight. Neither of those factors bode well for Hendricks, who will end up on the wrong end in this one. Sadollah will eventually put his prey away with an armbar late in the second round.

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Ricardo Almeida (10-3) vs. Kendall Grove (10-5, 1 NC)

The Breakdown: Two of the UFC’s most talented and enigmatic middleweights will meet when Grove, the skyscraping Hawaiian, takes on Brazilian jiu-jitsu virtuoso Almeida. Unfortunately for Almeida, his wrestling and striking have become permanent works in progress, while Grove’s absurd wingspan and striking make him a force to be reckoned with both inside and outside the pocket.

While Almeida has no qualms about pulling guard, he will have to step inside Grove’s considerable range and risk getting caught in a clinch, as well. Those are two scenarios Almeida’s brain cells hope to avoid. Even if he does manage a takedown, after whiffing on the mat against Patrick Cote and Matt Horwich, one has to wonder if Almeida’s extended layoff has taken some of the edge off his game.

The X Factor: Grove is undoubtedly grateful that his porcelain chin will be safe for once, as Almeida’s striking has proven equal parts uncoordinated and unrefined. With that said, an elite grappler is still dangerous against any breed of fighter. Considering Grove’s style is built around getting up close and wearing down opponents with elbows and knees, he will have to balance his aggression with caution or risk making the one mistake Almeida needs to give him the hangman treatment. Grove’s spindly legs are a prime target for a well-timed shot, and Almeida needs only one to find the mark to turn this fight into a new chapter in his highlight reel.

The Bottom Line: Once upon a time, Almeida walked away from MMA as the world’s premier middleweight. Five years later, he’s no longer the jiu-jitsu boogeyman he once was and his standing in the division has taken a hit. He won’t find any relief against Grove, who will work a disciplined clinch-centric game plan en route to a mostly one-sided decision win that will leave Almeida’s ledger with a fresh loss and his face with the evidence to prove it.

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Photo Courtesy: UFC.com

Josh Neer (25-7-1) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (13-4)

The Breakdown: Lost in the shuffle on a top-heavy card, the lightweight dustup between Pellegrino and Neer is the odds-on favorite for “Fight of the Night” honors. While Neer’s combination of physicality and technical savvy has made him a nightmare for opponents, Pellegrino has no back down in him; that borderline reckless style seems to only enhance his already considerable skill set.

Striking the right balance against Neer will be critical, as Pellegrino will be the smaller man on fight night. As evidenced in Neer’s bout with Mac Danzig, going toe to toe with him does not appear to be the wisest route. Pellegrino has shown that rare blend of grappling and ground-and-pound, just as Neer has throughout his UFC run. Who buckles first under the pressure of a guaranteed firefight comes down to who has the cardio to fuel his Rocky Balboa routine.

The X Factor: It is no secret that Neer is the lightweight division’s answer to Lou Ferrigno. While Pellegrino has the game to keep pace with him, he will give up a lot of size to Neer in what shapes up to be a rugged bout. The toll may be too much for Pellegrino, who needs to have enough left in the tank to hold his own in the latter stages. If Neer can use his size advantage to force the issue with Pellegrino, “Batman” may not make it that far. Of course, Pellegrino also has to worry about keeping his jaw and nose from switching places.

The Bottom Line: Though this fight has the potential to turn great, it will not take long to realize Pellegrino is fighting a losing battle. Neer has the edge on the feet with his reach and power, and his ground game is vastly underrated in comparison to Pellegrino. He will have to get past Neer’s thunder and find a way to take down his oversized quarry before he can get anything done. Pellegrino will not last long enough to reach that point, as Neer survives a back-and-forth first round before starching “Batman” midway through the second.

Thursday, August 06, 2009
by Tomas Rios (trios@sherdog.com)

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As usual, the undercard of UFC 101 is short on the big names that the main card is delivering, but it makes up for it with compelling matches featuring a heady mix of veterans, prospects and everything in between. Leading the fistic pack is a rematch between Shane Nelson and Aaron Riley and the return of Tamdan McCrory, who is fresh off another one of his “man spurts.” Don’t take that turn of phrase literally.

Also on deck is Thales Leites, who will look to rebuild his resume against Italian slugger Alessio Sakara, and a battle of “The Ultimate Fighter” alumni starring Dan Cramer and Matt Riddle’s terrible haircut. In other words, read on and get your knowledge fix in before your inevitable trip to the bookie. Remember, five-fight parlays are never a good idea if you value your thumbs.

Shane Nelson vs. Aaron Riley

The Breakdown: After their first dustup ended prematurely thanks to a controversial stoppage benefitting Nelson, Riley gets his chance to set things right by turning Nelson’s jaw inside out. Easier said than done, as Nelson has looked solid in the UFC and will come out knowing full well that his spot is up for grabs. What he won’t be ready for is Riley’s versatility and wrestling edge, which will keep Nelson scrambling to find offense of his own while fending off a very grumpy Indiana boy.

The X Factor: While Riley has always been known as a banger, his best success comes when he uses his full breadth of skills to keep opponents off balance. After taking a nonsense TKO loss to Nelson, Riley will want to prove a point on the feet even though it may just leave him open to whatever Nelson wants to do. If Riley comes out looking to get his Mike Tyson on, he may well win, but it could just as easily cost him the fight.

The Bottom Line: Something tells me Nelson won’t be ready for the seven shades of pissed off that Riley will be rocking come fight time. With UFC careers on the line, the veteran Riley will press Nelson from the opening bell and put all the pressure on him. Sooner or later, Nelson will figure out he’s out of his depth and Riley will drive that point across Nelson’s chin with a senses-shattering right cross in the third round.

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File Photo

Tamdan McCrory vs. John Howard

The Breakdown: One of the best style clashes on a stacked card, Howard is basically a tank with fists while McCrory’s praying mantis frame belies his surprising power and skill. The key to how this bout will unfold is Howard’s solution for dealing with the almost preposterous height and reach disadvantage he is faced with. Crowding McCrory may seem like the solution, but the New York native has a nasty clinch game and his mat game has steadily improved throughout his UFC run. While Howard certainly has the skill to beat McCrory, you have to wonder if he has the gas tank and game plan to put it all together.

The X Factor: The one aspect of McCrory’s game that every fighter will look to zone in on is his guard, and Howard’s explosive ground-and-pound will force McCrory to prove himself one way or another. Unless McCrory has shored up his guard game, he’ll be operating at a major disadvantage against Howard, who will have no qualms about pounding on him.

The Bottom Line: No longer a beanpole with some striking, McCrory has grown into a titanic welterweight with a diverse skill set while Howard is basically a one-note fighter who relies on overpowering opponents. That won’t play against McCrory, who gets the better of the fight by dominating the striking and showing some new game on the ground. After his post-fight interview, expect McCrory to have another growth spurt and announce a new career as an NBA center.

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Stephen Martinez/Sherdog.com

Thales Leites vs. Alessio Sakara

The Breakdown: Originally slated to take on Rousimar “Half-man/Half-cinder block” Palhares, it looks as if Sakara is still being set up for a submission scalping against another mat shark in Leites. While Sakara certainly has the striking to keep Leites at bay, he doesn’t have the wrestling to stave off the takedowns that will inevitably come his way. Given Leites’ sturdy chin and surprising arsenal of judo throws, Sakara is going to need something more than one-two combos and feints to escape getting the human pretzel treatment.

The X Factor: For a guy with a Nova Uniao black belt pedigree, Leites makes more bad decisions than Kanye West does in an entire year. Inside the cage, Leites’ mistake of choice has been getting into far too many striking exchanges, which amounts to handing his opponents a chance to even up the score. Sakara knows how to land a kill-shot, and his hand speed makes a fight-ending flurry a real concern for anyone wandering into his wheelhouse.

The Bottom Line: Unless Sakara can hire out a hypnotist to make Leites think he’s showing up for a kickboxing match, you’re looking at a fight that will be surprising only if Sakara can make it past the two-minute mark. Either way, Sakara is in trouble and could eventually find himself on the mat with a joint or two pointing in the wrong direction. I’m really hoping this is the fight I finally see someone bust out the back mount to camel clutch transition; everyone knows the Iron Sheik meant for that move to be used in MMA someday.

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Photo Courtesy: UFC.com

Matt Riddle vs. Dan Cramer

The Breakdown: This is one of those fights between young prospects who happen to be mirror images of each other. Both Cramer and Riddle are ginormous welterweights who make up for their inexperience with paralyzing ground-and-pound. The difference is that Riddle happens to be the much better fighter despite his Gotti boy haircut. Come fight time, Cramer will have to negotiate Riddle’s superior wrestling and conditioning while steering clear of any brain scramblers Riddle unloads on the feet. Just in case you’re waiting for a riddle pun, I’m letting you know now it’s not happening.

The X Factor: After a middling run on “The Ultimate Fighter,” Riddle has been a revelation in his first two UFC bouts and is looking like a future welterweight contender. The weight of expectations is the only variable we haven’t seen Riddle overcome, and with the whispers growing louder over his bright future, you have to wonder how a 23-year-old kid will handle going from afterthought to blue-chipper in such short order. Thus far, Riddle’s success has been built on flawless preparation and in-cage execution, but if he starts buying too much stock in his own talent, he could easily go from pleasant surprise to cautionary tale via Mr. Cramer’s fists.

The Bottom Line: While prospects get fed to the genetically engineered super-lions of the UFC, Riddle is getting deluxe treatment and it will show as he treats Cramer like a showcase opponent. Expect Riddle to wear him down with suffocating top control and strikes before putting him away with a kimura late in the second round. Let’s just hope that Riddle doesn’t show up to the cage ever again looking like he stuck his finger in an electrical socket.

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Photo by Sherdog.com

George Sotiropoulos vs. George Roop

The Breakdown: Let’s be honest here: Roop got a coin-flip decision over Dave Kaplan in his last bout and beyond some solid striking, doesn’t have much to offer. While Sotiropoulos is coming in on short notice, his strong jiu-jitsu base and Roop’s own shoddy wrestling make for an ideal combination if you’re looking to plunk down your rent money on the Aussie submission ace. Of course, there’s always the chance the laws of reality will bend, creating a probability vortex and allowing Roop to win.

The X Factor: Discounting any scenarios out of an episode of “Lost,” Roop is the better striker. Outside of a solid clinch game, Sotiropoulos is hardly a dynamo on the feet. With the superior striking and footwork to his name, Roop could outpoint Sotiropoulos from afar, but he’ll have to worry about over-working his SUV-level gas tank. It’s a difficult balance to strike, and notching a win one way or another won’t be easy.

The Bottom Line: A few dicey moments on the feet early on for Sotiropoulos will eventually give way to a clinical dissection of Roop on the mat. This is the part where you do the “Aussie, Aussie, Aussie” chant.

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Photo Courtesy: UFC.com

Jesse Lennox vs. Danillo Villefort

The Breakdown: A clash between Lennox’s ground-and-pound game and Villefort’s quicksilver jiu-jitsu rounds out the undercard in a bout that will likely decide what future these two WEC castaways will have in the UFC. Just how willing Lennox will be to tangle with Villefort on the mat will have a lot to do with how this bout goes, as Lennox has the striking to put Villefort down. Just as important will be Villefort’s willingness to step inside Lennox’s range in search of a takedown; it represents his best and likely only hope.

The X Factor: Looking up and down Lennox’s ledger, his loss to Emyr Bussade via kneebar in the IFL is a major red flag considering Villefort’s love for the leglock. You can bank on Villefort making a few kamikaze dives at Lennox’s legs, and he’s more than capable of turning them into b-grade origami. Lennox can keep his legs safe by staying upright, but he likes to test the water on the mat before resorting to plan B. Testing the waters with Villefort could leave Lennox looking like an extra from “Murderball.”

The Bottom Line: Solid as Lennox may be, his game isn’t built to handle Villefort, who will press him from the opening bell with submission attempts. Don’t be surprised if Lennox holds his own for a while, but Villefort will keep dragging him to the mat until he snatches hold of a limb and gets Lennox to play the three-tap symphony.