UFC 103 PREVIEW OF THE MAIN CARD
Friday, September 18th, 2009
Friday, September 18, 2009
by (trios@sherdog.com)
As if Floyd Mayweather Jr. didn’t hate the UFC enough as is, he can expect this Saturday’s UFC 103 event to take a big chunk out of his pay-per-view bonus for fighting Juan Manuel Marquez in Las Vegas the same night the UFC sets up shop in Dallas. Mayweather’s financial fears come with good reason, too. The UFC lineup marks the return of fan favorite Vitor Belfort against former middleweight champion Rich Franklin in a 195-pound catch-weight bout that may be an unconventional main event but should make for top-shelf violence regardless.
Backing up the headliner is the return of Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic, who will take on top heavyweight prospect Junior dos Santos, and the UFC debut of standout British welterweight Paul Daley, who has to tangle with premier contender Martin Kampmann. Rounding out the main card is a welterweight scrap between returning UFC veteran Frank Trigg and the uber-talented Josh Koscheck as well as a critical lightweight tilt pitting Tyson Griffin’s massive legs against Hermes Franca’s cinder block right hand.
I know what I’ll be watching Saturday night: the best of MadTV! I’ve just been informed I’m not allowed to say that, so just watch the fights and keep the hate mail coming. I’m building myself a hammock made entirely out of hate, a hate-mock if you will, and I need just a little more hate to finish it.
Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort
The Breakdown: The weight-class limbo continues for Franklin, who will look to spoil Belfort’s return to the UFC in a 195-pound catch-weight contest. What makes this bout interesting is that for the umpteenth time, Belfort looks like a rejuvenated fighter thanks to knockout wins over Terry Martin and Matt Lindland. More importantly, Belfort has the edge in speed and footwork over Franklin, who has developed a somewhat predictable style that overemphasizes his powerful left body kick and equally dangerous straight left.
While those are Franklin’s best weapons, he leaves himself wide-open for counters on both (see how Wanderlei Silva eventually found those openings in their bout at UFC 99). Belfort is a far more fundamentally sound boxer than Silva. His stiff southpaw jab could create problems for Franklin, who doesn’t do a good job of controlling range with his own jab. This fight certainly doesn’t favor Franklin on the feet, but Belfort has struggled against ground-and-pound-minded opponents in the past and Franklin has shown nasty striking on the mat.
The ground part of that strategy may prove difficult for Franklin, however. Belfort is hardly a free takedown, and Franklin himself is typically hesitant to hit the mat. If Franklin can’t disrupt Belfort’s rhythm on the feet with takedowns or clinch work, his chin will eventually catch up to him and Belfort has long been one of the best finishers in the game.
The X Factor: Matching southpaws against each other always yields interesting results, and both fighters could find it difficult to effectively employ their favored tactics. The other variable looming over this fight is Belfort’s brain, which is about as stable as an Iranian election. It doesn’t take much to throw Belfort off his game, and Franklin is as focused and committed a fighter as you’ll ever find. “Ace” needs to make this an uncomfortable fight for Belfort. If he allows Belfort to sit back, create angles and measure punches, this fight will be a painfully one-sided proposition for Cincinnati’s favorite son.
The Bottom Line: Trying to predict what Belfort will do is as pointless as watching a Rob Schneider movie in search of a laugh. With that said, Belfort has finally started doing all the things fans have been begging him to do for years: stay patient, work the jab and use all of his skills. Franklin won’t have an answer for Belfort’s superior boxing and massive hand speed advantage, and by the time he does go for a takedown, he’ll find it far easier said than done. This one ends with Franklin starched on the canvas and Belfort instantaneously christened as a premier contender in the middleweight class.
Photo by Sherdog.com
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Junior “Cigano” dos Santos
The Breakdown: The new guard of the UFC heavyweight division gets another chance to announce their presence when Dos Santos looks to add a high-profile scalp to his collection against faded heavyweight superstar Filipovic. Once upon a time in Pride, Filipovic’s K1-bred kickboxing made him a terror. Time, however, has robbed him of the balance, reflexes and footwork that made him such a uniquely dangerous fighter. It makes for a stark contrast to the Filipovic of today, who now relies heavily on boxing that doesn’t match up against Dos Santos’ superior hand speed and accuracy.
Although Dos Santos does have the habit of walking straight in and keeping his right hand too low, Filipovic was getting walked down by Mustapha Al-Turk at UFC 99 and, more importantly, I could solve world hunger in the time it took him to find the huge openings in Al-Turk’s defense. When Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg find the holes in your opponent’s defense before you do, you’ve got problems. Dos Santos’ aggressive style means Filipovic won’t have the time he needs to find a home for his strikes. Cro-Bauer doesn’t do well when he’s forced out of his methodical style, and Dos Santos will step right inside his range with powerful, accurate punches. Whether Filipovic still has the balance and speed to do anything about it is what will decide his future fistic luck.
The X Factor: Injuries are the universal reality in sports, and figuring out just how much they influence a fighter’s performance is like trying to get through an episode of TMZ: absolutely pointless in multiple ways. Filipovic has struggled with injuries in the past. Now he claims a clean bill of health, but after watching his supposed comeback against Al-Turk, it looks as if he has more than injuries to worry about. The tools are there: Filipovic’s left high kick and southpaw jab are made to pick apart Dos Santos. The ability to use them may be a thing of the past, though.
The Bottom Line: At this point in his career, Filipovic’s legendary left high kick is a weapon he can no longer wield, and that inability to keep opponents at bay with the threat of kicks has thrown off his whole striking game. This reality will become apparent when Dos Santos gets right in his grill and starts winging combinations that our favorite terrorist stomper doesn’t have the means to evade or counter. It won’t take long for Dos Santos to discover that his favored left hook feint to right uppercut combo has a home inside Filipovic’s defense, and that same right uppercut that caved in Werdum’s jaw will add another low point to Filipovic’s UFC career.
Photo by Sherdog.com
Martin Kampmann vs. Paul Daley
The Breakdown: Originally a high-stakes No. 1-contender match, Kampmann’s scheduled opponent, Mike Swick, was a late scratch thanks to a training camp injury. In Swick’s stead is brutal British kickboxer Paul Daley. A new face in the mutant shark tank that is the welterweight division, Daley is one of the best strikers in the game today, but his takedown defense and subpar jiu-jitsu have kept him from fulfilling his obvious potential. While Kampmann is known for his kickboxing base, he has developed excellent takedown skills inside the Greco-Roman clinch and his jiu-jitsu is surprisingly fluid.
What should worry Kampmann is his chin, which made his time as a middleweight extremely difficult and could haunt him again if he allows this fight to turn into a pure kickboxing match. Unfortunately for Daley, Kampmann is a savvy fighter who knows when to switch gears. Kampmann’s reach advantage over Daley will also allow him to use the jab to keep Daley from charging in. That tactic was used to great effect by Nick Thompson in his bout with Daley, and as long as Kampmann follows suit, Daley will have tapped out long before he gets a chance to score the knockout.
The X Factor: An underrated aspect of Daley’s game is his skill inside the Thai clinch. It could pose a problem for Kampmann, who uses the clinch to set up his takedowns. Any takedowns Kampmann goes for will have to be executed swiftly, and if he plans on keeping Daley down, he needs to avoid the cage or risk Daley cage walking his way out of trouble. Treading carefully will be key for Kampmann in this bout, as the slightest mistake could give Daley all the opportunity he needs to send him on a one-way trip to the canvas.
The Bottom Line: Daley will make for an interesting addition to the UFC, but he won’t crack the upper echelon of contenders and it will show against Kampmann. The difference in wrestling ability will simply be too much for Daley to overcome, and Kampmann’s own kickboxing background should be enough to keep him out of harm’s way. Expect Daley to have his moments on the feet. They will be quickly snatched away, though, as Kampmann hits takedown after takedown and wears down the British sparkplug en route to a second-round submission win via the arm-triangle choke.
Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com
The Breakdown: After an extended vacation from the UFC, Trigg returns to face what haunted him throughout his first run in the Octagon — an elite wrestler. Any way you approach it, Koscheck is one of the best wrestlers in the game, and Trigg’s time as an elite welterweight was given an unceremonious end at the hands of dominant wrestlers — namely, Matt Hughes and Georges St. Pierre. If this turns into a wrestling match, Koscheck is not only the vastly superior overall wrestler, his jiu-jitsu is solid as well and Trigg is notorious for guard work that resembles the death throes of someone being eaten alive (not pretty).
The only reason this fight isn’t a slam dunk for Koscheck is that he’s taken to running himself off the cliff like a B-grade Wile E. Coyote lately. For whatever reason, he has been acting like a boxer his last three fights and, not surprisingly, he’s got a 1-2 record to match. I’m all for fighters becoming versatile but not when it’s more self-destructive than dating Chris Brown. As we saw in Koscheck’s bout with Thiago Alves, all it takes is a few stuffed takedowns to draw Koscheck into a firefight. While that still doesn’t guarantee Trigg the W he so desperately needs, it’s probably his only hope.
The X Factor: While Koscheck’s fans hope he’s regained his senses and reverts back to his ground-and-pound ways, the more pragmatic observer has to wonder if he has lost the edge on his wrestling after going more than a year without using it effectively. Skills are not static. The less you use them, the more they lose their effectiveness. In all fairness, Trigg’s wrestling ability has faded, but it may not matter if Koscheck has lost that extra gear on his supersonic shot.
The Bottom Line: This fight is a bitter slice of reality for Trigg. He isn’t the fighter he used to be and, even at his best, Koscheck is a better version of him. Expect Trigg to try and press Koscheck on the feet, which is the exact opposite of what he should do considering both Alves and Paulo Thiago found success by letting Koscheck come to them. Regardless of what Trigg does, bank on Koscheck’s trainers at AKA getting him back to focusing on double legs instead of overhand rights. Once Koscheck gets Trigg on his back, start taking bets on how long it takes for the tapout.
Photo by Sherdog.com
Griffin’s trophy case.
Tyson Griffin vs. Hermes Franca
The Breakdown: The opener for the evening may be the night’s most interesting match, as UFC veteran Hermes Franca looks to comeback from a disastrous torn ACL by taking out one of the lightweight division’s new guard in Tyson Griffin. What makes this matchup so interesting is that both fighters seem to have the same problem: They rely too much on their standup for offense despite having strong mat skills. Inaccurate power punches and the occasional leg kick do not a striker make, regardless of what these two think.
With that said, there will likely be plenty of striking in this fight with both men doing the same thing: landing booming leg kicks and the occasional power punch, which will ultimately lead nowhere since neither of them has the accuracy or fundamentals to string together punches effectively. The real difference in this bout is that Griffin knows how to move from striking to wrestling fluidly, and Franca lacks the takedown defense to do anything about it except flail like he’s riding a rollercoaster with no seatbelt on.
While Franca’s guard is certainly dangerous, Griffin has neutralized jiu-jitsu players like Rafael dos Anjos and Thiago Tavares. By the same token, Franca has losses to Sean Sherk and Frankie Edgar, both of whom approximate Griffin’s style. As long as Griffin stays cautious inside Franca’s guard or passes it altogether, his ground-and-pound game will loom large in this bout.
The X Factor: For reasons that defy probability, Franca always finds a way to land his hideous yet undeniably effective overhand right. That one punch nearly turned a lopsided decision win for Edgar into a knockout loss, and it is also the punch Griffin must avoid at all costs. Considering Griffin’s ongoing love affair with kickboxing, he may not have the wherewithal to realize the obvious until after Franca leaves his head looking like a mildly used piñata.
The Bottom Line: This will be the tensest bout of the night. Rounds will be won or lost by the slimmest of margins. Ultimately, Griffin will take the edge by stepping inside of Franca’s punches, throwing quick combos and immediately going for the takedown. That wash, rinse and repeat approach worked beautifully for Edgar, and don’t think Griffin’s trainers at Xtreme Couture aren’t aware of it. Superior strategy wins the match for Griffin, who takes home a close but clear-cut decision to relaunch his run at the lightweight title.
