WEC SATURDAY NIGHT PREVIEW
Wednesday, October 7th, 2009
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
by (trios@sherdog.com) (Photos by WEC.tv)
The AT&T Center in San Antonio will play host to the snakebitten WEC 43 “Cerrone vs. Henderson” card on Saturday, and I know I’m not the only one surprised to see this show on the verge of coming together.
It seems as if every other day has brought news of an injury that sets off logistical nightmares as the WEC struggles to keep the card up to the high standards they’ve set as arguably the world’s premier home for talent south of the lightweight division.
The end result shows just how much work went into the production. Despite missing a headlining superstar, the main card features some of the promotion’s premier talent in matches that should keep everyone champing at the bit for more from Zuffa’s little brother. The main event pits top contenders Benson Henderson and Donald Cerrone for the interim lightweight title, and backup bouts star jiu-jitsu demigod Raphael Assuncao, lightweight blue-chipper Dave Jansen and the intense fire that is Damacio Page.
So let’s get in line with the routine and dig in for some top-tier fight talk that will undoubtedly be torn asunder by the actual results come fight night. The upside is that it means more hate, and we all know that without more hate, my plans to build a 56-story luxury hate-scraper will have to be put on hold.
Donald Cerrone vs. Benson Henderson
The Breakdown: With Jamie Varner’s laundry list of injuries joining the intensive care hall of fame, the WEC is matching top contenders Cerrone and Henderson to determine an interim lightweight champion and build a suitable storyline for Varner’s impending return. Beyond the peripheral concerns, the matchup pits two of the WEC’s most offensively versatile fighters who also happen to have all the defensive abilities of a soft-shell turtle. The problem for Henderson is that he can’t match Cerrone’s repertoire or the fluidity with which the lanky Colorado cowboy combines his spectrum of skills.
If Henderson tries to strike with Cerrone, he’ll struggle to establish his range against Cerrone’s reach. Cerrone also has the advantage of a true kickboxing pedigree while Henderson relies on pure power punching. Although Henderson doesn’t have to worry about getting wrestle-stomped by Cerrone, he probably doesn’t want any part of a grappling match with him, considering that Cerrone’s guard is more aggressive than a door-to-door salesman on PCP. One way or another, it looks like Henderson is walking into a fight where his only choice will be how he loses.
The X Factor: Varner wrote the book on how to beat the previously undefeated Cerrone. If Henderson is to have any shot in this fight, he needs to follow it to a T by using movement to get inside Cerrone’s reach and blast away at his chin. Varner proved you can starch Cerrone as long as he can’t get his own shots off, but Henderson will have to retool his game to incorporate more movement and tighter punching to make that happen. There is a world of difference between a slugfest and a strategic striking match, and as obvious as that may sound, many fighters fail to make the distinction. Henderson’s success will depend on his ability to walk that fine line, and he doesn’t have the track record to put anyone at ease.
The Bottom Line: If nothing else, Henderson will make it interesting by coming right at Cerrone with the kitchen sink in tow. Cerrone will respond by taking said kitchen sink and breaking it over Henderson’s head, metaphorically speaking. Unless of course the WEC decides to allow kitchen sinks in the cage for this fight, in which case we may witness the greatest fight ever committed to video. Either way, a wild striking battle eventually turns in the favor of Cerrone, who will finish a dazed Henderson on the mat late in the opening stanza.
Photo by Sherdog.com
Rich Crunkilton vs. Dave Jansen
The Breakdown: Once the lightweight division’s prospect du jour, Crunkilton’s career has been marred by injuries and his limited fight IQ. Now starring as the WEC’s resident gatekeeper, Crunkilton gets to face off with Jansen, who finds himself in the same role his opponent did once upon a time. An undefeated and relatively untested prospect, Jansen’s success depends on his ability to take the top position while Crunkilton’s success depends on not doing something worthy of a Darwin Award. As much as Crunkilton’s experience and strong Greco-Roman wrestling make him the theoretical favorite, Jansen’s non-stop motor and no-nonsense approach makes him perfectly suited to exploit a guy whose past “strategery” has made him the jester of crunk.
The X Factor: For all of Crunkilton’s past in-cage mistakes, he’s still got an impressive record and the wrestling to smother most anyone like a lonely grandmother. If Jansen doesn’t respond well to the challenge of facing a strong wrestler, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time a darling prospect falls to pieces at the first sign of adversity. Forcing Jansen into a difficult fight that doesn’t play to his strengths needs to be Crunkilton’s goal.
The Bottom Line: Like someone who keeps sending his money to e-mail-based Nigerian kings, there comes a time when you can’t keep banking on Crunkilton putting it all together. Jansen is just the kind of fighter who can force Crunkilton to rely on his guard and will not allow him to get away with any mistakes. It won’t be the most scintillating three rounds of the evening, but Jansen will take home a well-earned unanimous nod from the judges.
Freddie DeFreitas/Sherdog.com
Damacio Page vs. Will Campuzano
The Breakdown: I’m not gonna lie: Page is pretty awesome, and Campuzano has produced minimal awesome in his short career. One of the ongoing influx of undefeated prospects reaching the WEC’s shores, Campuzano has yet to face anywhere near the level of resistance that Page will bring. He’s also a late-notice replacement for the previously announced Akitoshi Tamura. From what I’ve seen, Campuzano plays your standard-issue ground-and-pound game, which won’t be easy to manage against Page’s fist-first striking and brute physicality.
The X Factor: Plenty of prospects have made an unexpected splash in the WEC thus far, and Campuzano has dominated the middling competition he’s faced. No extra credit for that, but at least he has the wrestling to ground Page. Whether or not he has the wrestling to keep him in place for more than five seconds is what will decide his chances against the perpetually pressuring style of Page, a man with quite possibly the greatest nickname in the history of the universe. Whoever came up with “The Angel of Death” deserves a Nobel prize of some sort.
The Bottom Line: There isn’t a good reason why anyone with just six fights against no-name opponents should be fighting Page. Expect something along the lines of Page’s terrifying knockout of Marcos Galvao, as he shrugs off Campuzano’s takedown attempts and batters him in the clinch with overhands and digging body blows for a violent TKO win.
Al Quintero/Sherdog.com
Raphael Assuncao vs. Yves Jabouin
The Breakdown: One of the world’s best featherweights takes on a guy who will soon have the honor of tapping out to one of the world’s best featherweights. Anti-climactic doesn’t even begin to describe the idea of Assuncao fighting Jabouin, who is simply not built to do anything that Assuncao should be worried about. Some may point to Jabouin’s excellent striking, but Assuncao isn’t the type to waste time on the feet. He will get right in Jabouin’s grill and force him to stuff takedown after takedown if he wants to spend more than a few seconds upright.
The X Factor: Credit where credit is due: Jabouin has a nasty striking arsenal. If Assuncao decides it’s time to test his stand-up, he might end up looking like someone in severe need of facial reconstruction. There’s no reason to believe Assuncao will take that route considering his by-the-book jiu-jitsu game, but if Jabouin can get to his chin before he hits the mat, this fight won’t be the soft touch that many are predicting. It all comes down to Jabouin and his ability, or lack thereof, to force Assuncao out of his usual takedown-tapout routine.
The Bottom Line: While the visual of Jabouin crunching Assuncao’s dome with an axe kick is second only to the prospect of Karimula Barkalaev returning from hiding, neither is going to happen in our lifetimes. An early takedown by Assuncao will lead to where it normally leads: his opponent realizing the only way out is the lonely solace of a tapout. Hopefully, the future holds something a bit more challenging for Assuncao, who should be taking on the division’s leading lights instead of fighters straddling the line between the B and C list.
Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
Anthony Njokuani vs. Muhsin Corbbrey
The Bottom Line: A battle of lightweights who seem forever on the periphery of the division, both Njokuani and Corbbrey have a chance to break through in the wide-open WEC 155-pound division. The breakthrough will materialize for Njokuani, who is the more well-rounded and disciplined fighter. Corbbrey’s relentless aggression leaves huge holes in his defense, and his cardio doesn’t stick around past the first round. A lopsided decision goes to Njokuani, who has nothing but opportunity awaiting him in the friendly confines of the cage.
Deividas Taurosevicius vs. Javier Vazquez
The Bottom Line: After taking a controversial split decision loss in his WEC debut to L.C. Davis, Vazquez gets a shot at vindication against IFL castaway Taurosevicius, who is looking to find his own footing in a new home. Despite a tough road back to MMA, Vazquez proved his game is still plenty sharp. He should be able to grapple his way to a decision against the equally mat-minded Taurosevicius, who lacks the depth of skill Vazquez has displayed. Expect a technical bout that ultimately favors Vazquez’s superior positioning and submission savvy.
Eddie Wineland vs. Manny Tapia
The Bottom Line: Every undercard needs to have a guaranteed slugfest. This is it. Wineland only knows how to fight upright, and Tapia will be all too happy to oblige. And with good reason, as Wineland lacks KO power and relies primarily on piling on damage while Tapia can step right in the pocket and grind out most anyone looking to keep his game under wraps. A two-fight losing streak ends for Tapia, as he pounds out a TKO win fueled by body blows and a bit of that old-school Mexican fighting spirit.
Charlie Valencia vs. Coty Wheeler
The Bottom Line: Two speed-freak bantamweights square off as Valencia and Wheeler try to carve out a permanent WEC spot at the expense of the other. While Wheeler’s record is prettier, he hasn’t faced the same competition as Valencia, who has stayed competitive against some of the division’s best. Besides that, Valencia has the more fundamentally sound approach and doesn’t make the rookie mistakes that Wheeler can’t seem to stop himself from making. It’s a fatal flaw that Valencia will mercilessly exploit.
Wagnney Fabiano vs. Mackens Semerzier
The Bottom Line: The fighting pride of Virginia, Semerzier is lined up for a tough big-time debut against top-tier contender Fabiano in a fight that is akin to sending the world’s best 13-year-old basketball player to the Memphis Grizzlies and expecting a NBA title in short order. Fabiano is simply one of the most suffocating ground specialists in the game. Semerzier lacks both the experience and skill at this point in his career to keep him from turning this fight into a jiu-jitsu competition. For the uninitiated, there aren’t many human beings alive whom Fabiano can’t hit with the Mario Sperry special, and Semerzier is about to become another in a long line.
Scott Jorgensen vs. Noah Thomas
The Bottom Line: Best known for a brief run on “The Ultimate Fighter,” Thomas is looking for vindication as a bantamweight — a search that got off to a bad start when he lost to Frank Gomez in his WEC debut. That trend is set to continue against Jorgensen, who is too good a wrestler for Thomas to do much of anything against except flail wildly and make puppy dog eyes at the referee in search of a stand-up. Jorgensen won’t turn heads with this fight, but he will go home unscathed and with a cut-and-dry unanimous nod in tow.
