UFC 105 MAIN CARD PREVIEW
Wednesday, November 11th, 2009
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
by (trios@sherdog.com)
Mixed martial arts on free television serves as the universal dinner bell for anyone who enjoys well-regulated violence, and this Saturday on Spike TV, UFC 105 “Couture vs. Vera” hits the Manchester Evening News Arena in Manchester, England. With a main event starring UFC legend Randy Couture and the uber-talented Brandon Vera, fans have the only reason they need to park themselves in front of the biggest television they can find when the bell rings.
Throw in a welterweight title eliminator, the formal debuts of “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 9 winners and the return of England’s favorite fighting son, Michael Bisping, and the top-tier fireworks are booked.
Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera
The Breakdown: Welcome to time warp mode, as Couture looks to replicate the success of his 2003 cut down to light heavyweight, which included two title reigns. Couture’s quarry, Vera, simply wants to reclaim his blue-chip status by capping off his 2009 campaign with what would be a career-changing win.
The fight essentially comes down to Vera’s ability to use his reach and wrestling to force Couture out of his usual ground-and-pound mode. Simply put, Couture cannot keep up with Vera on the feet, and his usual dirty boxing strategy seems fraught with danger, considering Vera’s unique combination of wrestling and muay Thai.
Couture has the advantage in experience and fight IQ, both of which have given Vera problems in the past, since he seems to rely more on talent than strategy to win. Everyone knows Couture will step into the cage with a sound strategy; whether his body will be as sharp as his mind remains a question that should be on everyone’s mind.
Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
The X-Factor: Courage under fire has proven a rare intangible inside the cage, and if past history is any indicator, Vera is not the guy you want in a foxhole with you. Time and time again, Vera’s well-hyped talent has been overshadowed by his inability to work through the inevitable difficulties that come with fighting angry men for a living.
Barring some absurdly easy knockout, Vera will be put to the test, and the professor will be a man who has broken many a will before. For better or worse, the MMA world will find out exactly what Vera has underneath all that bravado.
The Bottom Line: A litany of practical reasons why Vera will win this fight exist, and none are more compelling than Couture being 46 years old. With that said, Couture’s entire career has been built on defying the odds, and Vera is notorious for his high-stakes failures. Take old man Couture in a three-round decision that will lead to a fresh round of hyperbole from Joe Rogan.
Stephen Albanese/Sherdog.com
Mike Swick vs. Dan Hardy
The Breakdown: In a title eliminator with a shot at welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre as the somewhat-masochistic prize, Swick and Hardy have distinguished themselves in a division rapidly running out of contenders. The style clash between them depends largely on how Swick approaches Hardy, who has proven lethal as a striker but lacks the same mystique on the mat.
While most of Swick’s success has come as a striker, he has shown the intelligence to throw changeups at the opposition. Remember when he adopted a wrestling-centric approach against Marcus Davis at UFC 85? That versatility and Swick’s willingness to use it will play heavily into just how much of Hardy’s vaunted striking the sure-to-be rabid locals will get to see.
The X-Factor: There will not be much Hardy can do if Swick starts shooting for his legs, but the mohawked Brit has shown himself to be a gifted counterpuncher, and Swick has the habit of getting wide with his fists. Both bode well for Hardy, who needs to use his jab and force Swick to set up his takedowns with punches.
Those punches will give Hardy the time he needs to measure his counters and perhaps force Swick into exchanges for which he is not prepared. Hardy has the equal measures of patience and aggression necessary to make the strategy work; it boils down to staying focused in between takedowns.
The Bottom Line: It will not be pretty, but Swick will take an uneventful decision fueled by savvy strategy and tactical ground-and-pound. Prepare to keep your sound system on low because the chorus of boos will be loud enough to shatter glass.
Terry Goodlad/Sherdog.com
Michael Bisping vs. Denis Kang
The Breakdown: Bisping and Kang are talented middleweights who saw anticipated title runs go up in smoke. Now, they face each other for a shot to reboot their stalled careers. If one looks at this fight from a talent perspective, Kang has Bisping’s number, considering his edge on the feet and on the mat.
While Bisping remains a solid all-around fighter, he lacks anything overwhelming in his offensive repertoire and mostly relies on his high work-rate to wear out opponents. Kang, however, may not give him the chance to do anything except get run over.
The X-Factor: The worries of Kang fans are twofold since he often comes into fights looking disinterested, and even when he gives it his all, his propensity for bone-headed mistakes has cost him before. The longer Bisping keeps this fight going, the better his chances get.
The Bottom Line: Flip a coin. Every Kang fight has become a game of probability, with one side of the coin representing his million-dollar talent and the other representing lukewarm results. This time around, Kang takes a decision, mainly because Bisping no longer inspires confidence.
Photo by Sherdog.com
The Breakdown: As one of two “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 9 winners making his formal UFC debut, Wilks has no easy road waiting for him. Brown’s savage slugging represents his first obstacle. This will turn into a clash of weaknesses, as Brown’s ground game remains suspect and Wilks will likely get his face rearranged if he tries to trade blows.
Brown’s ability, or potential lack thereof, to stop Wilks’ takedown attempts matters most. Wilks excels at closing the pocket, but his wrestling does not appear all that sharp and Brown’s brute physicality could be enough to dissuade him from stepping inside. If that turns out to be the case, Wilks might as well flop to the mat and wait for the end to come.
The X-Factor: If Wilks can secure a takedown, Brown goes from dominant to prone, as his mediocre mat game has kept him cast in a gatekeeper role. Keep an eye on how Brown controls range early; if he fails at it, he will be tapping soon afterwards.
The Bottom Line: In another pick ’em fight, gamble on Wilks cinching a submission after some early difficulties from Brown’s fists. Arena security will undoubtedly be hoping for a Wilks victory since it will make their night’s work that much easier. The Brits do not take well to losing.
Jim Page/Sherdog.com
The Breakdown: Pearson, the other debuting “The Ultimate Fighter 9” winner, gets no easy road, either, as he has been slotted against a consummate professional. Both men are versatile fighters, but Pearson has youth on his side. Riley is a veteran of 40 fights, many of which came with a heavy toll.
That physical debt continues to collect on Riley’s game. He has gradually lost a step or two in the cage, which is often more than enough to take a fighter right out of it. Unless Riley finds Randy Couture’s fountain of youth, he will have to face off with a younger, better version of himself.
The X-Factor: If nothing else, Riley has proven himself a tough competitor who never backs down from a fight. Pearson beat Andre Winner at “The Ultimate Fighter 9” Finale by outlasting him; that does not appear to be as wise a strategy against someone as savvy as Riley.
The Bottom Line: Take Pearson in a close fight in which Riley cannot find the extra gear needed to win. With that, mass chaos will be averted, as just enough of the local fighters notch wins to keep the peace.
